本文關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的影響研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        近年來(lái),貿(mào)易與環(huán)境問題日漸成為學(xué)術(shù)界的熱點(diǎn)。國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)貿(mào)易自由化所產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境后果,一些學(xué)者持消極觀點(diǎn),認(rèn)為貿(mào)易自由化政策的實(shí)施將直接導(dǎo)致環(huán)境的惡化；另一些學(xué)者則認(rèn)為盡管貿(mào)易自由化在短期內(nèi)的環(huán)境效應(yīng)是消極的,但隨著時(shí)間的推移,貿(mào)易自由化將對(duì)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期的積極影響。對(duì)于中國(guó)而言,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品自由貿(mào)易對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)的總體影響是利大于弊(黃季焜等,2005a；劉宇等,2009；黃季焜等,2005b),促進(jìn)自由貿(mào)易符合中國(guó)的國(guó)家利益和長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益。過去幾十年,中國(guó)在推進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品自由貿(mào)易的過程中做出了巨大的努力,在放寬對(duì)進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入的同時(shí),還采取了一系列措施以消減關(guān)稅。在1978-2008年間,中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易額由1978年的61億美元增加到2008年的992.1億美元,年均增長(zhǎng)率為9.7%。然而,在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易取得巨大進(jìn)展,帶動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí),農(nóng)業(yè)作為溫室氣體的排放大戶,中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)所帶來(lái)的溫室氣體排放問題也日益引起人們的關(guān)注。目前,普遍的共識(shí)是中國(guó)小麥、玉米、棉花、大豆等土地密集型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)不具備明顯的比較優(yōu)勢(shì),而蔬菜、肉類等勞動(dòng)密集型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)則具備明顯的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)(劉劍文,2004；黃季焜等,2005a；黃季焜等,2005b；劉宇等,2009)。表現(xiàn)為小麥、玉米、棉花、大豆等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)規(guī)�？s減,而蔬菜、肉類等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模擴(kuò)張。由于土地密集型農(nóng)作物與勞動(dòng)密集型農(nóng)作物,以及不同畜產(chǎn)品之間農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中的溫室氣體排放量存在很大差異。因此,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品自由貿(mào)易會(huì)通過影響中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),進(jìn)而影響國(guó)內(nèi)資源的配置和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的改善(趙慧娥,2005；杜曉君等,1998；黃季焜等,1999),最終影響中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。那么,近幾十年來(lái),隨著改革開放不斷深入、貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量究竟有何變化,變化趨勢(shì)如何；農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響機(jī)理如何；中國(guó)主要農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的溫室氣體排放效應(yīng)如何；農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易開放度的變化是否也會(huì)顯著影響中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。對(duì)于這些問題的回答,有助于我們認(rèn)清中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體減排壓力,以及選擇符合我國(guó)國(guó)情的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)減排和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略,實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易與農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境的和諧、可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此,本研究具有一定的理論意義和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。本研究的總體目標(biāo)是考察農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響。圍繞這一目標(biāo),在理論分析農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響機(jī)理基礎(chǔ)上,首先,廓清中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易格局及結(jié)構(gòu)演變趨勢(shì)；其次,根據(jù)IPCC (2006)、FAO (2004)等提供的的溫室氣體排放系數(shù),構(gòu)建溫室氣體排放量的測(cè)度模型,測(cè)算全國(guó)及分地區(qū)的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量；再次,借鑒Grossman等(1991)、Chai (2002)和李懷政(2010)的研究方法,實(shí)證分析中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的溫室氣體排放效應(yīng)；最后,通過改進(jìn)Grossman和Krueger (1995)提出的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境關(guān)系的計(jì)量模型,引入貿(mào)易開放度和農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境變量,基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù),實(shí)證分析農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易開放度對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響。本研究的主要結(jié)論如下：1.90年代以來(lái),中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易格局及結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了顯著變化。表現(xiàn)為：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易在商品對(duì)外貿(mào)易中的地位不斷下降,創(chuàng)匯能力明顯減弱；產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)顯現(xiàn)出口以蔬菜、水果等勞動(dòng)密集型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品為主,進(jìn)口以棉花、大豆等土地密集型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品為主的態(tài)勢(shì)；進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)集中度不斷降低,市場(chǎng)分布日趨合理和多元化；進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的國(guó)內(nèi)區(qū)域集中度較高；進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的主體結(jié)構(gòu)向多元化轉(zhuǎn)變,主體結(jié)構(gòu)日趨合理。2.1991-2008年間,中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量呈遞增趨勢(shì),而且地區(qū)分布不均。具體而言：一是,就種植業(yè)而言,水稻的CH4排放量呈下降趨勢(shì),從1991年的999.50萬(wàn)噸下降到2008年的931.44萬(wàn)噸；而同期間的N2O和C02排放量卻逐年升高,N20排放量從1991年的34.67萬(wàn)噸上升到2008年的48.74萬(wàn)噸,C02排放量從1991年的4019.48萬(wàn)噸增加到2008年的7785.87萬(wàn)噸。二是,畜牧業(yè)CH4和N20排放量均呈先升后降的趨勢(shì)。CH4和N2O排放量分別從1991年的765.53萬(wàn)噸、35.32萬(wàn)噸上升到2006年的1111.43萬(wàn)噸、55.93萬(wàn)噸。此后,它們又分別下降到2008年的900.74萬(wàn)噸、46.90萬(wàn)噸。三是,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的結(jié)構(gòu),呈現(xiàn)種植業(yè)所占份額不斷縮減、畜牧業(yè)所占份額不斷遞增的趨勢(shì)。四是,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的區(qū)域集中度較高,排放的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域呈現(xiàn)向中西部和經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)集中的趨勢(shì)。3.中國(guó)主要進(jìn)出口農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的溫室氣體排放效應(yīng)分解結(jié)果如下：(1)就結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)而言,1991-2008年間,由于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口份額的變化,共減排溫室氣體58.36萬(wàn)噸C02當(dāng)量,表明中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化呈現(xiàn)顯著的溫室氣體排放負(fù)效應(yīng)。(2)就技術(shù)效應(yīng)而言,由于農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度緩慢,1991-2008年間,中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的出口貿(mào)易僅減排溫室氣體0.09萬(wàn)噸C02當(dāng)量,表明技術(shù)進(jìn)步的減排效果并不明顯；同時(shí)期的中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易少減排溫室氣體4.55萬(wàn)噸CO2當(dāng)量。因此,整體而言,中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易因技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度緩慢累計(jì)少減排溫室氣體4.46萬(wàn)噸CO2當(dāng)量,表明中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)溫室氣體排放呈現(xiàn)顯著的技術(shù)正效應(yīng)。(3)就規(guī)模效應(yīng)而言,1991-2008年間,中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口規(guī)模擴(kuò)大引致的溫室氣體排放量大幅增加,累計(jì)增加溫室氣體排放155.78萬(wàn)噸CO2當(dāng)量；與此同時(shí),中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口規(guī)模擴(kuò)大引致的溫室氣體減排量也大幅增加,累計(jì)減排溫室氣體260.76萬(wàn)噸CO2當(dāng)量。因此,中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易的規(guī)模擴(kuò)大累積凈減排溫室氣體104.98萬(wàn)噸CO2當(dāng)量,表明農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)溫室氣體排放呈現(xiàn)顯著的規(guī)模負(fù)效應(yīng)。4.農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易開放度對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的不同溫室氣體排放品種的影響不同。具體而言：(1)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口導(dǎo)向率和進(jìn)口滲透率對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的CO2排放量影響顯著。農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口導(dǎo)向率的提升會(huì)增加國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的CO2排放量,而進(jìn)口滲透率的提升則會(huì)減少國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的C02排放量；然而,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易開放度對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的CH4和N20排放量的影響并不明顯。(2)中國(guó)農(nóng)村實(shí)際收入與國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量呈現(xiàn)倒U型關(guān)系。表明當(dāng)農(nóng)村收入水平較低時(shí),為增加收入水平,農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)者會(huì)通過提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、增加農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素投入等手段,即增加化肥、農(nóng)藥等使用量和畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模,從而增加農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量；當(dāng)收入水平達(dá)到一定程度時(shí),人們的環(huán)境保護(hù)意識(shí)會(huì)不斷增強(qiáng),要求政府制定更嚴(yán)格的環(huán)境保護(hù)措施,促使農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)者加速技術(shù)革新,采用更低碳、環(huán)保的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)技術(shù),從而有利于減少農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。本研究的可能創(chuàng)新之處在于：一是,構(gòu)建了中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量測(cè)算模型,并利用相對(duì)比較合理的測(cè)算指標(biāo),初步測(cè)算了1991-2008年中國(guó)及地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量,為后人的研究提供一定的借鑒和參考；二是,將Grossman等(1991)最初針對(duì)工業(yè)品貿(mào)易提出的對(duì)外貿(mào)易的環(huán)境效應(yīng)引入農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易,并借助其理論分析框架,從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面,分析了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放的影響。本研究的不足在于：一是,受研究條件制約,未能獲得農(nóng)作物的溫室氣體排放系數(shù)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),這可能會(huì)影響本文測(cè)算結(jié)果的可信度。二是,由于缺少農(nóng)作物各品種的碳匯系數(shù),未考慮其通過光合作用所吸收的C02排放量,可能會(huì)高估中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量。三是,本文假定我國(guó)進(jìn)口農(nóng)產(chǎn)品與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的同類農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的溫室氣體排放強(qiáng)度相同,這也會(huì)影響本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果。

    In recent years, trade and environmental issues are becoming a hot topic in academia. The environmental consequences of trade liberalization in the domestic and international academic, some scholars hold a pessimistic view that the implementation of trade liberalization policies will directly lead to deterioration of the environment; some scholars believe that the environmental effects of trade liberalization in the short term is negative, but over time, trade liberalization to the environment long-term positive impact.For China, the overall impact of free trade of agricultural products on agriculture is better than harm (J. k Huang et al,2005a; Liu Y et al,2009; J. k Huang et al,2005b), promote free trade in line with China’s national interests and long-term interests. In the past few decades, China has made tremendous efforts in the process of promoting free trade of agricultural products, not only in relaxation of the import and export market access, but also adopted a series of measures to mitigate the tariff. During1978-2008, China’s agricultural trade has increased from$6.1billion in1978to$99.21billion in2008, and the average annual growth rate is9.7%. However, made great progress in agricultural foreign trade, and promoted development of the domestic agricultural economy, at the same time, agriculture as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, greenhouse gas emissions from the Chinese agricultural production brought about a cause for concern increasingly.At present, the general consensus is the production of Chinese wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other land-intensive agricultural products didn’t have a clear comparative advantage, while the production of vegetables, meat and other labor-intensive agricultural products are with a clear comparative advantage (J. w Liu,2004; J. k Huang et al,2005a; J. k Huang et al,2005b; Liu Y, et al,2009). Performance of reducing the domestic production scale of wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other agricultural products, expansion of domestic production scale of vegetables, meat and other agricultural products. Due to greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural production process is very different between land-intensive crops and labor-intensive crops, and among of livestock products. Thus, free trade of agricultural products will affect the foreign trade structure of China’s agricultural products, and thus affect the domestic resource configuration and the structure of agricultural production to improve (H. E Zhao,2005; X. J Du et al,1998; J. k Huang et al,1999), and ultimately impact the greenhouse gas emissions of domestic agricultural production in China. So, in recent decades, with deepening of reform and opening up, and trade have been expanding, what changes and trends of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. What affect mechanism of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products in international market, what greenhouse gas emissions effects of the main import and export agricultural production in China. Whether the change of agricultural trade openness will also affect the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production? For answers to these questions will help us to recognize the greenhouse gas emission reduction pressure of agricultural production in China, and to select strategies of reducing the greenhouse gas emission of agricultural production and foreign trade of agricultural products in line with our national conditions, and to achieve harmonious and sustainable development between Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products and agro-ecological environment. Therefore, this study has certain theoretical and practical value.The overall objective of this study is to examine the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Around this goal, the author on the basis of theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism, that is agricultural products in international market to the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China. Firstly, depicts the evolution of trade patterns and structure of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products. Secondly, estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions on the national and sub-regional agricultural production, according to the greenhouse gas emission factors provide by IPCC (2006) and FAO (2004), and the measure of greenhouse gas emissions model. Thirdly, empirical analysis of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products, by learning from Grossman (1991), Chai (2002) and H.Z Li (2010). Finally, empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural trade openness to the greenhouse gas emissions of China’s agricultural production, by improving the econometric Model of economic growth and environmental relations proposed by Grossman&Krueger (1995), introducing the variable of trade openness and agriculture environment, and basing on the inter-provincial panel data.The main conclusions of this study are as follows: 1. Since the1990s, there are a significant change of the trade patterns&structure of foreign trade in China’s agricultural products. Performance:A declining status of the foreign trade in Chinese agricultural products in foreign trade goods in China, foreign exchange earning capacity is significantly diminished. Products structure appeared the situation of mainly exports vegetables, fruits&other labor-intensive agricultural products, and imports cotton, soybeans&other land-intensive agricultural products. Import&export market concentration continue to lower, the market is becoming more rational distribution and diversification. The concentration of import&export trade in the domestic areas is high degree. A shift of the main structure of import&export trade to diversify, the main structure is becoming more rational.2. During1991-2008, the greenhouse gas emissions of China’s agricultural production show an increasing trend and an uneven regional distribution. In particular:Firstly, for farming, the amount of CH4emissions in rice procuction has declined, from9.3144million tons in1991down to9.995million tons in2008; and at the same period the amount of N2O and CO2emissions increased year by year, the amount of N2O emissions from346,700tons in1991rose to487,400tons in2008, the amount of CO2emissions from40,194,800tons in1991to77,858,700tons in2008. Secondly, the amount of CH4and N2O emissions in livestock production showed a "∩" trend. The amount of CH4and N2O emissions respectively from7.6553million tons and353.2thousand tons in1991rose to11,114,300tons and559,300tons in2006. Since then, they were respectively down to9.0074million tons and469,000tons in2008. Thirdly, the structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production shows the shrinking trend of farming but the increasing trend of livestock production. Fourthly, the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has a high regional degree, and the key emissions areas shows a concentration trends to the less developed and Midwest areas in China.3. China’s main import and export of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions effects of the decomposition results are as follows:(1) For the structure effect, during1991-2008, due to the share changes of import&export of agricultural products, total greenhouse gas emission has reduced583,600tons CO2equivalents, indicating that the optimization of foreign trade structure in China’s agricultural products presents a significant negative effect to greenhouse gas emissions.(2) For the technical effect, during1991-2008, due to the technological progress of agricultural production is slow, the exports of Chinese agricultural products has only reduced greenhouse gas emissions900tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the technological progress is not obvious. At the same time period, the imports of Chinese agricultural products less reduced greenhouse gas emissions45,500tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, in overall terms, the Chinese foreign trade in agricultural products accumulated less reduced greenhouse gas emissions44,600tons CO2equivalent, due to the slow pace of technological progress, indicating that China’s foreign trade in agricultural products presents a significant technical positive effect to domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.(3) For the scale effect, during1991-2008, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions has a substantial increase caused by export expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative increased greenhouse gas emissions1.5578million tons CO2equivalent. At the same time, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reducted are also a significant increase caused by the import expansion of Chinese agricultural products, cumulative reduced greenhouse gas emissions2.6076million tons CO2equivalent. Therefore, due to the scale of China’s foreign trade in agricultural products expanded, cumulative net reducted greenhouse gases1.0498million tons CO2equivalent, indicating that the foreign trade of agricultural products presents a significant scale negative effects on domestic greenhouse gas emissions in China.4. The trade openness of agricultural products on different varieties of greenhouse gas emissions in Chinese agricultural production has different effects. In particular:Firstly, for the amount of CO2emissions in Chinese agricultural production, the agricultural export-oriented rate and import penetration influence is significant. Agricultural export-oriented rate increase will increase domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production, while import penetration enhancement will reduce domestic CO2emissions from Chinese agricultural production; but for the CH4and N2O emissions of Chinese agricultural production, the trade openness influence is not significant. Secondly, the relationship of the actual income in Chinese rural area and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in domestic agricultural production showing a inverted "U" shaped, indicating that when the income level is lower in rural areas, in order to increase income, agricultural producers by increasing the scale of agricultural production, increase factors inputs and other means of agricultural production, that is to increase the use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, etc and to expand the production scale of livestock, thereby increasing the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production. When the income reaches a certain level, people’s awareness of environmental protection growing, asking the Government to introduce more stringent environmental protection measures to promote agricultural producers to accelerate technological innovation, and to use more low-carbon or environmental friendly agricultural production technologies, so helps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural production.In this study, the possibility innovations are as follows:Firstly, build a calculation model of greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China, and take advantage of the relatively reasonable estimates indicators; preliminary estimates the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production in national and regional of China during1991-2008, providing a reference for future generations. Secondly, Grossman et al (1991) originally proposed the environmental effects of industrial products foreign trade used to the agricultural products foreign trade, and with its theoretical framework from both theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural products in international market on the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural production in China.The lacks of this study are as follows:Firstly, subject to study conditions restricting could not get a time series data of the greenhouse gas emission factors of crop varieties, which may affect the credibility of calculation results in this article. Secondly, due to lack of the carbon sink factors of crop varieties, didn’t take into the amount of CO2absorbed through photosynthesis, and may overestimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in China’s agricultural production. Thirdly, assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of the imported agricultural products and the agricultural products by domestic production are the same; this will also affect the empirical results.

農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的影響研究

目錄4-8圖目錄8表目錄8-10摘要10-13ABSTRACT13-171 導(dǎo)論18-28    1.1 研究背景18-19    1.2 問題提出及研究意義19-21    1.3 研究目標(biāo)、假說(shuō)和內(nèi)容21-22        1.3.1 研究目標(biāo)21        1.3.2 研究假說(shuō)21-22        1.3.3 研究?jī)?nèi)容22    1.4 研究方法和數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源22-24        1.4.1 研究方法22-23        1.4.2 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源23-24    1.5 技術(shù)路線圖24-25    1.6 可能的創(chuàng)新與不足之處25-26        1.6.1 可能的創(chuàng)新25-26        1.6.2 研究不足26    1.7 全文的結(jié)構(gòu)安排26-282 概念界定與國(guó)內(nèi)外研究綜述28-36    2.1 概念界定28-29        2.1.1 貿(mào)易自由化28        2.1.2 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易自由化28        2.1.3 溫室氣體28        2.1.4 農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體28-29        2.1.5 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品29    2.2 國(guó)內(nèi)外研究綜述29-34        2.2.1 貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境影響的爭(zhēng)論29-31        2.2.2 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境的影響研究31-33        2.2.3 農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的相關(guān)研究33-34    2.3 本章小結(jié)34-363 理論基礎(chǔ)與分析框架36-46    3.1 理論基礎(chǔ)36-39        3.1.1 比較優(yōu)勢(shì)理論36-37        3.1.2 外部性理論37-39    3.2 分析框架39-44        3.2.1 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易的結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)39-41        3.2.2 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易的規(guī)模效應(yīng)41-43        3.2.3 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對(duì)外貿(mào)易的技術(shù)效應(yīng)43-44    3.3 本章小結(jié)44-464 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易格局及結(jié)構(gòu)演變46-64    4.1 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易基本特征46-50        4.1.1 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額波動(dòng)幅度較大48-49        4.1.2 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易在商品對(duì)外貿(mào)易中的地位不斷下降49-50    4.2 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)演變50-61        4.2.1 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)變化50-52        4.2.2 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的市場(chǎng)分布變化52-56        4.2.3 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的國(guó)內(nèi)地區(qū)分布變化56-59        4.2.4 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的主體結(jié)構(gòu)變遷59-61    4.3 中國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易與比較優(yōu)勢(shì)61-62    4.4 本章小結(jié)62-645 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放量的測(cè)算64-86    5.1 引言64-65    5.2 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的發(fā)展概況及演變趨勢(shì)65-67        5.2.1 中國(guó)主要農(nóng)作物品種播種面積的變化趨勢(shì)65-66        5.2.2 中國(guó)主要畜禽品種飼養(yǎng)規(guī)模的變化趨勢(shì)66-67    5.3 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放量的測(cè)算模型67-73        5.3.1 種植業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中溫室氣體排放量的測(cè)算模型67        5.3.2 畜禽養(yǎng)殖過程中溫室氣體排放量的測(cè)算模型67-68        5.3.3 溫室氣體排放量的主要計(jì)算參數(shù)68-73    5.4 測(cè)算結(jié)果及變化趨勢(shì)73-84        5.4.1 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的溫室氣體排放總量73-76        5.4.2 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的結(jié)構(gòu)演變76-77        5.4.3 本文測(cè)算結(jié)果與國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究的比較77-80        5.4.4 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放的地區(qū)特征80-84    5.5 本章小結(jié)84-866 中國(guó)主要進(jìn)出口農(nóng)產(chǎn)品溫室氣體排放效應(yīng)的分解86-102    6.1 引言86    6.2 計(jì)量模型、數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源與指標(biāo)說(shuō)明86-88        6.2.1 計(jì)量模型86-87        6.2.2 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源87-88        6.2.3 指標(biāo)說(shuō)明88    6.3 溫室氣體排放強(qiáng)度測(cè)算及其變化趨勢(shì)88-92        6.3.1 農(nóng)作物溫室氣體排放量測(cè)算公式88-89        6.3.2 畜禽溫室氣體排放量測(cè)算公式89        6.3.3 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品溫室氣體排放強(qiáng)度測(cè)算公式89        6.3.4 測(cè)算結(jié)果及變化趨勢(shì)89-92    6.4 中國(guó)主要進(jìn)出口農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的溫室氣體排放效應(yīng)的分解結(jié)果92-100        6.4.1 結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)92-95        6.4.2 技術(shù)效應(yīng)95-98        6.4.3 規(guī)模效應(yīng)98-100    6.5 本章小結(jié)100-1027 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易開放度對(duì)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)溫室氣體排放影響的實(shí)證——基于省際面板數(shù)據(jù)的分析102-110    7.1 引言102    7.2 計(jì)量模型、指標(biāo)選取和數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源102-104        7.2.1 計(jì)量模型102-103        7.2.2 指標(biāo)選取103-104        7.2.3 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源104    7.3 計(jì)量方法、回歸結(jié)果及分析104-108        7.3.1 計(jì)量方法104-106        7.3.2 回歸結(jié)果及分析106-108    7.4 本章小結(jié)108-1108 結(jié)論及政策建議110-114    8.1 研究結(jié)論110-111    8.2 政策建議111-114參考文獻(xiàn)114-120附錄120-134致謝134-136攻讀博士學(xué)位期間的科研成果目錄136

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