發(fā)布時間：2018-03-26 02:12

  本文選題：國有林區(qū)　切入點：經(jīng)濟增長　出處：《林業(yè)科學(xué)》2017年04期

【摘要】：【目的】經(jīng)濟增長與資源保護之間的沖突和矛盾是橫亙在國有林區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路上的主要障礙。通過對經(jīng)濟增長和資源消耗之間偽脫鉤風(fēng)險的實證檢驗,探尋"天保"工程實施以來國有林區(qū)是否實現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟增長和資源保護的雙贏發(fā)展,將有助于為全面啟動的國有林區(qū)改革提供實踐參考�！痉椒ā渴紫�,分別采用Tapio彈性分析法和Kuznets曲線模型實證判定國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長與資源消耗之間的脫鉤關(guān)系;其次,利用對數(shù)趨勢線方法對脫鉤后經(jīng)濟增長和資源保護之間是否存在偽脫鉤風(fēng)險進行有效識別;再次,通過構(gòu)建國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模型和經(jīng)濟增長模型,探尋偽脫鉤風(fēng)險破解的主導(dǎo)因素和基本思路�！窘Y(jié)果】1)對比Tapio彈性分析和Kuznets曲線模型的脫鉤結(jié)果,得出國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長和資源消耗自2003年起實現(xiàn)脫鉤;2)2003—2014年國有林區(qū)平均森林覆蓋率和GDP增長率的對數(shù)趨勢線中自變量系數(shù)分別為1.394 4和-29.69,二者呈顯著的相反變化趨勢;3)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模型和增長模型估計結(jié)果顯示,非木質(zhì)經(jīng)濟(0.992,1.969)、木材產(chǎn)量(0.257,0.347)及投資(0.078,0.158)是支撐國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟增長的主要因素,作用程度依次下降,在崗職工投入對林區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有消極影響(-0.202),且對經(jīng)濟增長無顯著貢獻(t=-0.28)�！窘Y(jié)論】1)國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長和資源消耗自2003年跨過EMC最高點后實現(xiàn)脫鉤,但脫鉤后資源保護取得積極成效的同時經(jīng)濟利益嚴(yán)重受損,二者之間存在偽脫鉤風(fēng)險;2)木材資源對林區(qū)經(jīng)濟的支撐和驅(qū)動效應(yīng)依然顯著,但限于資源管控的政策干預(yù)而被嚴(yán)重遮掩,因此經(jīng)濟和資源并未實現(xiàn)真正脫鉤,而是處于偽脫鉤狀態(tài);3)國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟和資源的偽脫鉤關(guān)系主要源于"天保"政策對森林開發(fā)利用的強制干預(yù);4)大力發(fā)展非木質(zhì)經(jīng)濟是停伐轉(zhuǎn)型背景下提升國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟總量和驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟增長的優(yōu)先選擇,其次為鼓勵和擴大投資以及尋求新的木材供給,再者則是如何有效消除勞動力冗余;5)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建了以投資為支撐、以職工為載體、以非木質(zhì)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展為動力、以科技創(chuàng)新為手段,旨在實現(xiàn)國有林區(qū)經(jīng)濟和資源雙贏發(fā)展的偽脫鉤風(fēng)險破解機制。
[Abstract]:[objective] the conflicts and contradictions between economic growth and resource protection are the main obstacles to sustainable development of state-owned forest regions. The empirical test of the risk of pseudo-decoupling between economic growth and resource consumption is carried out. To explore whether the state-owned forest regions have realized the win-win development of economic growth and resource protection since the implementation of the "natural conservation" project, it will be helpful to provide a practical reference for the reform of the state-owned forest regions that have been launched in an all-round way. [methods] first of all, Tapio elastic analysis method and Kuznets curve model are used to determine the decoupling relationship between economic growth and resource consumption in state-owned forest regions. The logarithmic trend line method is used to identify whether there is a pseudo-decoupling risk between economic growth and resource protection after decoupling. Thirdly, the economic development model and economic growth model of state-owned forest region are constructed. The main factors and basic ideas of pseudo-decoupling risk analysis are explored. [results] 1) comparing the results of Tapio elastic analysis and Kuznets curve model, It is concluded that the independent variable coefficients in logarithmic trend line of average forest coverage and GDP growth rate of state-owned forest regions from 2003 to 2014 are 1.394 4 and -29.69 respectively, which show significant opposite changes. The estimates of the economic development model and the growth model show that. The main factors supporting the economic development and driving the economic growth of the state-owned forest area are 0.992U 1.969m, 0.2570.347) and investment 0.0780.158), and the degree of action decreases in turn. The input of staff and workers on the job has a negative impact on the economic development of forest regions and has no significant contribution to economic growth. [conclusion] 1) the economic growth and resource consumption of state-owned forest areas have been decoupled since 2003, when they crossed the peak of EMC. However, the positive results of resource protection after decoupling and the serious damage to economic interests, the risk of pseudo-decoupling exists between the two, and the supporting and driving effect of wood resources on forest economy is still significant. But policy interventions that are limited to resource control have been heavily overshadowed, so that the economy and resources have not been truly decoupled. But in the state of pseudo-decoupling (3) the pseudo-decoupling relationship between the economy and resources in the state-owned forest region is mainly due to the compulsory intervention of the "natural conservation" policy on forest development and utilization. (4) vigorously developing the non-wood economy is to promote the state-owned forest under the background of cutting stoppage and transformation. Regional economic aggregates and priority options for driving economic growth, Secondly, in order to encourage and expand investment and seek new wood supply, moreover, how to effectively eliminate labor redundancy and how to construct investment as support, staff as carrier, non-wood economic development as driving force, and scientific and technological innovation as means, In order to realize the double-win development of economy and resources in state-owned forest area, the risk of pseudo-decoupling is solved.
【作者單位】： 東北林業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金項目(13BJY032) 黑龍江省科技攻關(guān)重點項目(GC14D101) 中央高�；�本科業(yè)務(wù)費專項資金項目(2572014AC01)
【分類號】：F326.2

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