本文關(guān)鍵詞：隨機環(huán)境下公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 公共交通 公交串車 公交駐站 公交跳站 魯棒性優(yōu)化 車輛延誤

【摘要】：城市公交系統(tǒng)作為與城市交通系統(tǒng)和城市居民出行相關(guān)聯(lián)的開放式復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),多種隨機因素都可能會造成公交系統(tǒng)的無序運營。隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市公交作為城市居民主要的出行方式之一,公交運營的可靠性和穩(wěn)定性受到更多關(guān)注,本文將其統(tǒng)稱為公交系統(tǒng)的“魯棒性”,主要體現(xiàn)為城市單線路公交運營的魯棒性。城市公交系統(tǒng)中包含大量的隨機擾動因素,如行程速度的不確定性、公交站點乘客到達(dá)的隨機性等,公交車在運行過程中由于受隨機交通擾動影響無法準(zhǔn)確遵循既定的調(diào)度計劃運行,致使公交系統(tǒng)運行穩(wěn)定性和服務(wù)質(zhì)量下降。本文針對城市公交系統(tǒng)隨機擾動誘發(fā)的公交無序運營問題,以常規(guī)公交系統(tǒng)頻發(fā)的公交串車為研究對象,對公交串車情況下公交車輛對道路交通運行影響分析,構(gòu)建基于交通波理論的車輛附加延誤計算模型,并針對公交客流到達(dá)公交站點的隨機波動性,以二維時間序列上公交站點的客流數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計與分析為基礎(chǔ),設(shè)計基于二維時間序列的公交站點客流預(yù)測模型,進(jìn)而分別以公交駐站控制和協(xié)調(diào)控制為手段,以自均衡車頭時距為控制策略,設(shè)計隨機環(huán)境下公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法,提升公交系統(tǒng)抵御隨機干擾的能力。本文通過對公交系統(tǒng)控制中各重要組成部分的探討和研究,形成了系統(tǒng)、科學(xué)的城市常規(guī)公交運營實時控制體系。本文主要工作內(nèi)容和研究成果概括如下。(1)基于交通波理論的車輛附加延誤計算方法研究。針對直線式公交站點布設(shè)在道路交叉口附近時公交串車對道路車輛運行影響問題,首先,以單一公交車在公交站點停靠對道路交通流運行影響特性剖析為基礎(chǔ),依據(jù)公交車駛?cè)胙芯柯范蔚臅r刻不同,將公交車對道路車輛延誤影響劃分為六種情況,以交通波理論為理論工具,分類別構(gòu)建單一公交影響下道路車輛附加延誤計算模型;進(jìn)而,剖析直線式公交站點設(shè)置單泊位和雙泊位時,聚集到達(dá)站點的兩輛公交車運行機理,并分別針對公交站點單泊位和雙泊位情況,設(shè)計公交車在站點處的�？繒r間計算方法,以獲取公交串車情況下,兩輛公交車在站點處的�？繒r間與道路車輛附加延誤之間的關(guān)系,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建不同泊位下道路車輛附加延誤計算模型。本部分的研究成果為公交實時控制方法研究提供必要的理論支撐。(2)基于二維時間序列的短時公交客流預(yù)測方法研究。公交客流到達(dá)公交站點的波動性是本文考慮影響公交系統(tǒng)運營穩(wěn)定性的主要隨機因素。綜合考慮城市道路公交系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化方法對短時公交客流的預(yù)知性需求,以二維時間序列公交客流數(shù)據(jù)(實時客流數(shù)據(jù)和歷史客流數(shù)據(jù))為數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ),以卡爾曼濾波算法為模型基礎(chǔ),采用并行預(yù)測架構(gòu)和決策級融合手段,設(shè)計基于二維時間序列的公交客流預(yù)測算法流程;以此為基礎(chǔ),以動態(tài)預(yù)測自適應(yīng)權(quán)重系數(shù)為核心思想,以滾動式預(yù)測為預(yù)測模式,在考慮模型簡潔性、預(yù)測可靠性等需求的基礎(chǔ)上,分別設(shè)計了三種嵌入式公交客流預(yù)測決策級融合方法,為具有不同公交客流預(yù)測需求的控制系統(tǒng)提供短時客流預(yù)測方法支撐。本部分的研究成果能夠為隨機環(huán)境下城市公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法體系提供準(zhǔn)確的數(shù)據(jù)支持。(3)基于駐站控制的公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法研究。在描述公交系統(tǒng)中公交車運營過程以及明確影響公交正常運行主要隨機因素的基礎(chǔ)上,探析公交系統(tǒng)中公交串車產(chǎn)生機理,以此為基礎(chǔ),對公交系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行數(shù)學(xué)抽象,構(gòu)建公交系統(tǒng)描述體系;針對公交系統(tǒng)受隨機擾動干擾后恢復(fù)至穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)能力較差的問題,以提高公交系統(tǒng)車頭時距收斂速度和減少控制點處駐站時間為目標(biāo),以自均衡車頭時距為設(shè)計理念,提出一種相鄰公交車車頭時距自均衡控制策略;公交系統(tǒng)隨機擾動因素較多,直接構(gòu)建解析模型形式的公交駐站控制模型較為困難,因此,在對公交站點客流對公交運行影響分析的基礎(chǔ)上,以逐步添加擾動因素為研究脈絡(luò),對控制點處的公交車進(jìn)行實時控制,利用由簡至繁逐級構(gòu)建控制模型的方法,建立公交車駐站時間計算模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上設(shè)計基于駐站控制的公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法,并分別從理想情況、線性和非線性假設(shè)以及實際情況三個層面驗證控制方法的有效性。本部分的研究成果為提升公交系統(tǒng)抵抗隨機干擾能力提供新的解決思路。(4)基于協(xié)調(diào)控制的公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法研究。針對不同客流需求下公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法的適應(yīng)性問題,在對公交跳站和公交駐站控制手段優(yōu)缺點分析基礎(chǔ)上,對公交駐站控制與公交跳站運營手段互補特性分析,并以公交跳站與公交駐站為協(xié)調(diào)控制手段,以自均衡公交車車頭時距為協(xié)調(diào)控制策略,根據(jù)控制點處相鄰公交車車頭時距動態(tài)選擇公交駐站或公交跳站,構(gòu)建協(xié)調(diào)控制算法流程;通過對各控制手段下公交車車頭時距迭代演化趨勢預(yù)測,分別建立公交駐站和公交跳站動態(tài)選擇模型,以此為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建公交駐站時間計算模型,提出基于公交駐站和公交跳站協(xié)調(diào)控制的公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法,并利用數(shù)值分析手段對協(xié)調(diào)控制中各種控制手段的選擇情況進(jìn)行分析,通過提取各控制手段的選擇次數(shù)以及對應(yīng)公交系統(tǒng)狀態(tài),分析協(xié)調(diào)控制方法對公交系統(tǒng)控制影響的內(nèi)在機理,進(jìn)而對協(xié)調(diào)控制方法適用范圍進(jìn)行討論。本部分的研究成果為城市公交系統(tǒng)智能控制體系構(gòu)建提供科學(xué)的控制方法支撐。本論文研究過程中以方法適用性、模型簡潔性、理念先進(jìn)性為主導(dǎo)思想,針對城市常規(guī)公交系統(tǒng)存在的公交串車問題,提出隨機環(huán)境下公交系統(tǒng)魯棒性優(yōu)化方法,將先進(jìn)的科學(xué)方法同城市公交系統(tǒng)運營實際相結(jié)合。本論文涉及的研究思想、脈絡(luò)、方法以及研究成果對完善城市公交系統(tǒng)運營管理體系建設(shè)和豐富城市公交系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃理論與方法體系具有重要的理論價值和實際意義。
[Abstract]:As the city bus system and city traffic system and city residents travel associated with the open complex system, disorderly operation many random factors are likely to result in the public transportation system. With the rapid development of social economy, city bus as one of the main city residents travel mode, bus operation reliability and stability is more attention, the the bus system referred to as the "robustness", mainly reflected the robustness of the single line operation of the city bus. A large number of random disturbance factors including city public transportation system, such as the speed of the uncertainty of passengers in the bus station at random, bus during operation due to random traffic disturbance can not accurately follow the schedule the operation plan established, resulting in the decrease of bus running stability and service quality. In this paper the city bus system random disturbance The bus operation disorder induced by bus, the bus transit system frequent train as the research object, analysis of the impact on the bus transit train case of road traffic, construction calculation model of vehicle based on the additional delay of traffic wave theory, and stochastic volatility of the bus station in the bus passenger flow, passenger flow and analysis to the data of two-dimensional time series of bus stations on the statistical basis of design of bus station passenger two-dimensional prediction model based on time series and then to bus station control and coordinated control as a means to self balanced car head pitch control strategy, design under random environment bus system robust optimization method to enhance the ability to resist the bus system random interference. Based on the bus in the control system of the important part of the discussion and the research, formed a system, city bus operation of Science When the control system. The main contents and research results are summarized as follows. (1) research on the calculation method of additional delay of vehicle traffic wave theory based on linear bus. According to the site layout at the intersection near the bus on vehicle impact on road vehicle operation problems, first of all, with a single bus in the bus stop sites of road traffic flow the influence of operation characteristics analysis based on different time sections of the research into the bus, bus delay on road vehicles will influence divided into six types, with the traffic wave theory, classified construction of single bus road vehicles under the influence of additional delay calculation model; then, analysis of linear single berth and double bus stations berth, gathered to the site two bus operation mechanism, according to single and double berth berth bus station, bus in site design The calculation method of the stopping time, to get on bus car, two bus at the site of the docking time between road vehicles additional delay, and the construction of road vehicles under different berth additional delay calculation model. The results of this part provide the necessary theoretical support for the real-time control method of bus (2). Study on the prediction method of short term passenger flow based on two dimensional time series. Bus passenger arrival fluctuation of the bus station is mainly considering influence of random factors transit system operation stability. Considering the city road transportation system optimization method to predict short-term bus passenger demand to the passenger data of two-dimensional time series (real-time data and historical traffic flow data) as the basic data, using Calman filtering algorithm using parallel architecture model based prediction and decision level fusion method. Prediction of passenger volume flow meter algorithm based on two-dimensional time series; based on dynamic prediction adaptive weight coefficient as the core idea, to predict rolling prediction model, considering the model simplicity, reliability prediction based on the requirement of design decision level fusion method for prediction of three kinds of embedded bus passenger is different bus passenger flow prediction control system needs to provide a short passenger flow forecasting support. Research results of this part can provide data support for the random environment city bus system robust optimization method system. (3) research of optimization method of bus station based on robust control system. On the base of describing the process of bus transit system and the normal operation of the main random factors influencing the bus on the bus on the car of the generation mechanism of public transportation system, which based on The bus system of mathematical abstraction, to build public transportation system description system; in the bus system are subjected to random disturbances after the return to steady state ability is poor, in order to improve the transit headway convergence speed and reduce the control point in time as the goal, to balance the headway as the design concept, put forward a kind of adjacent bus the headway of self balancing control strategy; bus system random disturbance factor more direct construction of bus station in the form of analytical model of control model is difficult, therefore, based on the analysis of the ring bus station passenger bus operation shadow, with disturbance factors as the research context gradually added, the real-time control of the control point of the bus the construction method of control model, from simple to complex step by step, the bus station set up time calculation model, based on the design of the bus in the station control system based on Method of robust optimization, and separately from the ideal case, the effectiveness of linear and nonlinear assumptions and the actual situation of the three level to verify the control method. The research results of this part provide a new solution for improving the bus system resistance to random interference. (4) the research of optimization method of bus system Robust Coordinated Control Based on adaptive. The problem of different passenger demand under the bus system robust optimization method, in the bus station and bus station jump control means on the basis of the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the bus station, bus station control and jump operation means complementary characteristic analysis, and to the bus station and the bus station jump to coordinate control means, to balance the bus the headway for coordinated control strategy, according to the adjacent control points of the bus headway in the dynamic choice of bus station or bus station to jump, construction of coordinated control algorithm based on the control process; The bus system means the headway iterative evolution trend prediction model was established to choose dynamic transit stations and bus station in the jump, on the basis of constructing bus station time calculation model, and puts forward the bus system robustness optimization method of bus station and bus station based on hop control coordination, and coordination of various control options the control means are analyzed by means of numerical analysis, by extracting each control means select the number and the corresponding bus system, analysis of the coordinated control method to control the inherent mechanism of the effect of the bus system, and the coordination control method applicable scope are discussed. The research results of this part provide scientific support for the control system of intelligent city bus the control system with the applicability of this model in the research process, simplicity, advanced concept as the guiding ideology, the city often The bus transit system on vehicle problems, put forward a random environment transit system robust optimization method, the advanced scientific methods to city transit system operation practice. The research thought, this thesis involves context, method and the research results of this dissertation have important theoretical value and practical significance to improve the city public transportation system construction and operation management system and abundant city public transportation system planning theory and method system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491.17

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