發(fā)布時間：2018-04-04 06:39

  本文選題：中國與歐盟　切入點：貿易成本　出處：《廣東外語外貿大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：貿易成本被傳統(tǒng)貿易理論視為外生變量,從沒有被納入貿易理論模型的討論框架之內。然而國際貿易理論隨著經濟全球化的深入發(fā)展而不斷創(chuàng)新,愈發(fā)多的學者意識到貿易成本的關鍵作用。因此與貿易成本相關的研究越發(fā)重要,并使其成為國際貿易理論的核心概念。歐盟自2005年東擴后,與中國的貿易量大幅增加,2013年其躍居為中國第一大貿易伙伴國,并始終保持著龍頭地位。若能夠對中國與歐盟貿易的經濟成本進行測度,不僅可以理解中國的國際分工和專業(yè)化模式,還可以為中國的日益開放提供直接證據。本文主要借鑒了基于Novy改進的引力模型以及基于Anderson多邊一般均衡重構的新模型這兩種方法測度了1994-2013年中國與歐盟的雙邊貿易成本,并做了對比分析。反映出兩種測算方法的計算結果有很大的區(qū)別:一、Novy改進的引力模型的測算結果是中國與歐盟的貿易成本持續(xù)保持著下降趨勢,這與大部分學者的研究結果保持一致。而新模型的測算結果是中國與歐盟成員國的貿易成本有波動趨勢,甚至一些國家的雙邊貿易成本是上升的。二、新模型的測算結果反映的是兩國貿易總額大不一定貿易成本低,貿易成本只是影響貿易流量的其中一個因素。1997年中國與歐盟27國貿易成本最低的前6國分別是荷蘭、芬蘭、德國、羅馬尼亞、保加利亞、瑞典。而2013年愛沙尼亞晉升首位,其次是丹麥、匈牙利、荷蘭、德國、比利時,與各國的貿易總量水平不一致。三、新模型的一個假設條件是市場份額的不對稱,這與Novy改進的引力模型的假設條件不一樣,本文還利用新模型測度了中國與歐盟其中8國的單邊貿易成本,發(fā)現中國對歐盟的單邊成本與歐盟對中國的單邊成本是不對稱的,即目前大多數學者采用的測算方法假設雙方的市場份額對稱與現實不符。此外,本文還測度了行業(yè)的貿易成本,測算結果是紡織類貿易成本從0.98銳減到0.31,下降幅度達69%,同時反映了紡織類是我國的出口優(yōu)勢產業(yè),而礦物、木材類產業(yè);化工、塑膠類產業(yè);機械電子類、雜項制品類產業(yè)的貿易成本呈現平緩的上升趨勢。動物、食品類產業(yè);鞋帽類產業(yè),交通工具產業(yè)的貿易成本呈現波動的趨勢。本文最后對貿易成本的影響因素進行分析,發(fā)現國家開放程度、人均收入差異、信息壁壘、基礎設施和是否為統(tǒng)一貿易組織均與貿易成本有顯著的負相關關系。最后在理論分析和實證研究的基礎上,提出減少中國貿易成本的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Trade cost is regarded as an exogenous variable by traditional trade theory and is never included in the framework of trade theory model.However, with the development of economic globalization, more and more scholars realize the key role of trade cost.Therefore, the research related to trade cost becomes more and more important and becomes the core concept of international trade theory.Since its eastward expansion in 2005, the European Union's trade with China has increased sharply, and in 2013 it became China's largest trading partner and has always maintained a leading position.If we can measure the economic cost of trade between China and EU, we can not only understand China's international division of labor and specialization mode, but also provide direct evidence for China's opening up day by day.This paper mainly draws lessons from the improved gravitation model based on Novy and the new model based on the reconstruction of Anderson multilateral general equilibrium to measure the bilateral trade cost between China and EU from 1994 to 2013 and makes a comparative analysis.The results show that the calculation results of the two methods are very different: the result of Novy's improved gravity model is that the trade cost between China and the European Union keeps decreasing, which is consistent with the research results of most scholars.The result of the new model is that the trade cost between China and EU member countries is fluctuating, and even the bilateral trade cost of some countries is rising.Second, the results of the new model reflect that the total trade volume of the two countries is not necessarily low in terms of trade costs. Trade costs are only one of the factors affecting trade flows. In 1997, the top six countries with the lowest trade costs between China and the 27 European Union countries were the Netherlands and Finland, respectively.Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Sweden.Estonia rose to the top in 2013, followed by Denmark, Hungary, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, which did not match the overall level of trade.Third, one of the hypothetical conditions of the new model is the asymmetry of market share, which is different from that of Novy's improved gravitational model. This paper also uses the new model to measure the unilateral trade costs between China and eight of the EU countries.It is found that the unilateral cost of China to the EU and the unilateral cost of the EU to China are asymmetric, that is to say, the current calculation method adopted by most scholars assumes that the symmetry of the market share of both sides is not in accordance with the reality.In addition, this paper also measures the trade cost of the industry. The result of the calculation is that the trade cost of textile industry has been sharply reduced from 0.98 to 0.31, which has dropped by 69%. At the same time, it reflects that the textile industry is the dominant export industry of our country, while the mineral and timber industries; the chemical industry.Plastic industry, machinery and electronics, miscellaneous products industry trade costs show a gentle upward trend.Animal, food industry, shoes and hats industry, transportation industry trade costs show a fluctuating trend.Finally, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of trade cost, and finds that the degree of national openness, the difference of per capita income, the information barrier, the infrastructure and whether the trade organization is unified have significant negative correlation with the trade cost.Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce China's trade costs.
【學位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.7;F755

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本文編號：1708803