發(fā)布時間：2018-05-25 00:28

  本文選題：東亞 + 匯率協(xié)調(diào)�。� 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：本文的寫作遵循著從東亞經(jīng)濟體間匯率波動現(xiàn)狀出發(fā)，最后回歸到東亞經(jīng)濟體匯率制度選擇的邏輯思維脈絡(luò)，并始終以協(xié)調(diào)與合作的思想作為支撐。首先，東亞經(jīng)濟體普遍盯住美元作為一種現(xiàn)實狀況被加以證實了。那么，在盯住美元的大前提之下，基于一種“傳遞”的思想，東亞經(jīng)濟體間匯率應(yīng)表現(xiàn)出一定的相關(guān)性，那么現(xiàn)實狀況如何？這種相關(guān)性的短期變化和長期趨勢如何？東亞經(jīng)濟體間匯率的相關(guān)性是否可以持續(xù)？假設(shè)在存在匯率聯(lián)動的情況下，東亞經(jīng)濟體間是否構(gòu)成了潛在的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)？如果說存在著潛在的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)，那么東亞經(jīng)濟體又應(yīng)該如何進行匯率制度選擇？本文將通過實證檢驗及理論分析對上述問題進行回答。 實際上，對上述問題的思考源于歐元區(qū)建立的實踐經(jīng)驗。作者認為，歐洲國家存在著一種匯率協(xié)調(diào)的“思維”。從歐洲國家主張重新建立金本位到二戰(zhàn)后英國提出“凱恩斯計劃”，從布雷頓森林體系框架下各國自發(fā)性的匯率協(xié)調(diào)到布雷頓森林體系崩潰后歐洲國家建立的“蛇形浮動”（Snake in the Tunnel），從歐洲貨幣體系到歐元區(qū)的建立，匯率協(xié)調(diào)的“思維”始終貫穿其中，并由匯率協(xié)調(diào)過渡到匯率合作。這種匯率協(xié)調(diào)的思維與歐洲貿(mào)易一體化相輔相承，為歐盟和歐元區(qū)的建立提供了重要的現(xiàn)實基礎(chǔ)和制度保障�？梢�，這種由匯率協(xié)調(diào)“思維”所帶來的匯率穩(wěn)定是歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟建立的先行者，也就是說，歐洲國家間匯率的穩(wěn)定是其組建歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟的重要前提條件。基于這樣一個邏輯框架，在東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟體匯率穩(wěn)定（自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)）的基礎(chǔ)上，是否可以形成最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)，這也是本文所要闡明的問題。 本文首先對亞洲金融危機后東亞區(qū)域貨幣金融合作的現(xiàn)狀進行了簡要的回顧，包括東亞區(qū)域信息溝通及預(yù)警機制的建立、清邁倡議的啟動及其多邊化、東亞債券市場的發(fā)展等。在此基礎(chǔ)上重點介紹了目前東亞區(qū)域匯率協(xié)調(diào)取得的進展。從現(xiàn)實情況來看，尚無制度性加以保障的匯率協(xié)調(diào)與合作，而亞洲貨幣單位的建立也僅作為衡量區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟體匯率變動情況的一般性指標(biāo)，并無推動?xùn)|亞區(qū)域匯率協(xié)調(diào)與合作進一步發(fā)展的實質(zhì)性力量。最后，危機頻發(fā)使東亞經(jīng)濟體認識到加強區(qū)域經(jīng)濟合作的重要性與緊迫性，但目前東亞經(jīng)濟體對“美元體制”的依賴和美國霸權(quán)的絕對影響仍是現(xiàn)階段東亞區(qū)域合作面臨的主要障礙。由此得出現(xiàn)階段美元體制與東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟體自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)的關(guān)系，并指出東亞經(jīng)濟體匯率協(xié)調(diào)與合作的兩個悖論：其一，現(xiàn)階段美元體制和美國霸權(quán)是阻礙東亞經(jīng)濟體匯率協(xié)調(diào)與合作的重要原因，而東亞經(jīng)濟體匯率的聯(lián)動性反而是通過盯住美元實現(xiàn)的。其二，東亞經(jīng)濟體貿(mào)易的發(fā)展極易受到美元匯率波動的影響，東亞經(jīng)濟體希望能夠減少美元匯率波動的負效應(yīng)，但又不得不把大量的貿(mào)易順差和外匯儲備輸入美國，形成對美元資產(chǎn)和美國資本市場的依賴，從而進一步鞏固了東亞區(qū)域盯住匯率制度。東亞經(jīng)濟體的地位較為尷尬，既是美元體制的支撐者，又是美元體制的受害者；既想擺脫對美元體制的依賴，又不得不在美元體制下展開合作。 麥金農(nóng)（Mckinnon）①認為美元本位制的形成是一次偶然，而赫德森（Hudson）②指出現(xiàn)行以美元為主導(dǎo)的國際貨幣體系是經(jīng)過美國充分設(shè)計的。從經(jīng)濟史的角度來看，美元的霸權(quán)地位起源于布雷頓森林體系的雙掛鉤機制，而布雷頓森林體系崩潰后美元地位不僅沒有被削弱，反而進一步得到了加強。這既得益于商品美元和石油美元的回流機制，又得益于債券的美元計價機制。可以看出，商品美元的回流是美元霸權(quán)的重要支撐。也就是說，東亞經(jīng)濟體是美元霸權(quán)的重要支撐者，這種支撐作用在匯率方面的投射就是東亞經(jīng)濟體普遍采取盯住美元匯率制度。雖然東亞經(jīng)濟體官方多宣稱使用的是有管理的浮動匯率制度，但盯住美元的這一現(xiàn)象已經(jīng)通過多種實證檢驗方法加以證實了，即便是在不同時期美元權(quán)重有所不同，但美元的絕對地位從未被動搖。 那么，基于“傳遞”效應(yīng)，在東亞各經(jīng)濟體盯住匯率制度基礎(chǔ)上，它們之間應(yīng)該表現(xiàn)出匯率聯(lián)動的特征�；�于此，本文對東亞經(jīng)濟體匯率變動相關(guān)系數(shù)、基于G-PPP理論的匯率變動情況進行實證檢驗。結(jié)果表明，無論從短期還是從長期來看，東亞經(jīng)濟體間存在著沒有制度性約束的匯率聯(lián)動性特征。也就是說，東亞經(jīng)濟體間存在著自發(fā)性的匯率協(xié)調(diào)，為東亞區(qū)域匯率合作乃至形成最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)提供了一定的理論基礎(chǔ)和經(jīng)驗支持。值得注意的是，這種匯率聯(lián)動性以盯住美元為前提，由東亞經(jīng)濟體間緊密的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系、相似的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、趨同的經(jīng)濟周期和宏觀經(jīng)濟政策加以保證。即在商品美元回流機制和東亞整體區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的前提下，這種匯率聯(lián)動特征在未來較長一段時間內(nèi)可以持續(xù)。 基于東亞經(jīng)濟體自發(fā)性的匯率協(xié)調(diào)，本文用最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論標(biāo)準(zhǔn)檢驗東亞自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域是否構(gòu)成了最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)。首先，通過建立數(shù)理模型分析組建最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)所帶來的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策調(diào)整成本。隨后，對東亞經(jīng)濟體生產(chǎn)要素標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、經(jīng)濟開放度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、產(chǎn)品多樣化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、金融一體化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、通脹相似性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和政策一體化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進行檢驗。分析結(jié)果表明，東亞經(jīng)濟體最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)檢驗結(jié)果并不理想，這既與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)選擇的可行性與有效性有關(guān)，亦與東亞經(jīng)濟體的某些特殊情況有關(guān)�；�于此，本文從東亞經(jīng)濟體一體化程度出發(fā)，分析東亞經(jīng)濟體是否存在著“事后”的最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)。長期來看，東亞經(jīng)濟體自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域滿足了組建最優(yōu)貨幣的部分條件，已經(jīng)具備了推進更高層次合作的可能性。 文章最后對東亞區(qū)域匯率協(xié)調(diào)與合作的長期安排進行探討。貝奧米和埃肯格林（Bayoumi and Eichengreen，1994）指出任何中間匯率制度最終都會向兩極匯率制度過渡。然而，從東亞區(qū)域的現(xiàn)實狀況來看，美元體制仍是制約其合作的最重要因素。應(yīng)在本文分析的東亞區(qū)域自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)的基礎(chǔ)上，充分發(fā)揮人民幣作為區(qū)域穩(wěn)定器的作用①，同時明確區(qū)域合作中中國、日本甚至是美國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。短期來看，進一步鞏固與加強東亞經(jīng)濟體間的匯率聯(lián)動關(guān)系；中期來看，鞏固加強現(xiàn)有東亞貨幣金融合作取得的成果，充分協(xié)調(diào)中日兩國的關(guān)系；長期來看，以東亞次區(qū)域匯率協(xié)調(diào)推動?xùn)|亞區(qū)域匯率合作，最終實現(xiàn)東亞地區(qū)貨幣一體化。 本文結(jié)論如下： 第一，在東亞經(jīng)濟體盯住美元的匯率制度下，各經(jīng)濟體間表現(xiàn)出匯率聯(lián)動的特征，形成了自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)。 第二，這種匯率聯(lián)動性以盯住美元為前提，由東亞經(jīng)濟體間緊密的貿(mào)易聯(lián)系、相似的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，趨同的經(jīng)濟周期和宏觀經(jīng)濟政策加以保證。 第三，在保證美元體制和東亞整體區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的前提下，這種匯率聯(lián)動特征在未來較長一段時間內(nèi)可以持續(xù)。 第四，東亞自發(fā)性匯率協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域滿足部分最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，，具備了推進更高層次合作的可能性。 第五，短期來看，進一步鞏固與加強東亞經(jīng)濟體間的匯率聯(lián)動關(guān)系；中期來看，充分協(xié)調(diào)中日兩國的關(guān)系；長期來看，以東亞次區(qū)域匯率協(xié)調(diào)推動?xùn)|亞區(qū)域匯率合作，最終實現(xiàn)東亞地區(qū)貨幣一體化。
[Abstract]:This article follows the current situation of exchange rate fluctuation between East Asian economies, and finally returns to the logical thinking of the choice of the exchange rate system of East Asian economies, and always supports the thought of coordination and cooperation. Under the big premise, based on the idea of "transfer", the exchange rate between East Asian economies should show a certain correlation, then what is the real situation? What is the short-term and long-term trend of this correlation? Can the correlation between East Asian economies exchange rates continue? Assuming that in the presence of exchange rates, the East Asian economies are If there is a potential best currency area, then how should the East Asian economy choose the exchange rate system? This paper will answer the above questions through empirical test and theoretical analysis.
In fact, thinking about the above problems stems from the practical experience established in the eurozone. The author believes that there is a "thinking" of exchange rate coordination in European countries. From the European countries to reestablish the gold standard to the "Keynes plan" after World War II, the spontaneous exchange rate of countries in the framework of the Bretton Woods system is coordinated to bray. The "snake like floating" (Snake in the Tunnel) established by the European countries after the collapse of the forest system was established from the European monetary system to the euro zone. The "thinking" of the exchange rate coordination has always run through the exchange rate coordination to the exchange rate cooperation. This exchange of exchange rate coordination is complementary to the European trade integration, for the European Union and the euro zone. The establishment of exchange rate stability caused by the "thinking" of exchange rate is the forerunner of the establishment of the European Monetary Union. That is to say, the stability of the exchange rate between European countries is an important prerequisite for the formation of the European Monetary Union. Based on such a logical framework, the European currency alliance is in the East Asia region. Based on the exchange rate stability of regional economies (spontaneous exchange rate coordination), whether the optimal currency area can be formed is also a problem to be clarified in this paper.
This paper first briefly reviews the current situation of regional monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia after the Asian financial crisis, including the establishment of regional information communication and early warning mechanism in East Asia, the initiation and multilateralism of the Chiang Mai initiative and the development of the East Asian bond market. On this basis, the progress of regional exchange rate coordination in East Asia has been emphasized. In reality, there is no system to guarantee exchange rate coordination and cooperation, and the establishment of Asian monetary unit is only a general index to measure the change of exchange rate in the region, and there is no substantial force to promote the further development of regional exchange rate coordination and cooperation in East Asia. To strengthen the importance and urgency of regional economic cooperation, the dependence of the East Asian economies on the "dollar system" and the absolute influence of American hegemony are still the main obstacles in the present stage of regional cooperation in East Asia. The two paradoxes of the coordination and cooperation of the exchange rate are: first, the US dollar system and American hegemony are the important reasons that impede the exchange rate coordination and cooperation of the East Asian economies, while the linkage of the East Asian economies is realized by pegging the dollar. Secondly, the development of the East Asian economies is easily affected by the exchange rate fluctuations of the dollar. East Asian economies hope to reduce the negative effects of US dollar exchange rate fluctuations, but have to enter a large number of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves into the United States to form a dependence on the dollar assets and the American capital market, thus further consolidating the East Asia regional peg regime. Supporters are also the victims of the US dollar system. They want to get rid of the dependence on the US dollar system and have to cooperate under the US dollar system.
Mackinnon (Mckinnon) (1) thought that the formation of the dollar standard was an accident, while Hudson (Hudson) was fully designed by the United States. From the perspective of economic history, the hegemony of the dollar originated from the double hook mechanism of the Bretton Woods system and the Brayton forest system collapsed. The post break dollar status is not only undermined, but further strengthened. This is not only benefited from the return mechanism of commodity dollars and oil dollars, but also the dollar valuation mechanism of bonds. It can be seen that the return of commodity dollars is an important support for us dollar hegemony. That is to say, the East Asian economy is an important supporter of US dollar hegemony. The projection of the support effect on the exchange rate is that East Asian economies generally take a peg to the dollar exchange rate regime. Although the officials in the East Asian economies claim to use a managed floating exchange rate system, the phenomenon of pegging to the dollar has been verified by a variety of empirical methods, even at different times in the United States dollar weight. It is different, but the absolute position of the dollar has never been shaken.
Then, based on the "transfer" effect, on the basis of the peg exchange rate system in East Asia, they should show the characteristics of exchange rate linkage. Based on this, this paper makes an empirical test on the correlation coefficient of exchange rate change in East Asia economy and the change of exchange rate based on G-PPP theory. There are exchange rate linkage characteristics without institutional constraints between sub economies. That is to say, there is a spontaneous exchange rate coordination among East Asian economies, which provides a certain theoretical basis and experience support for regional exchange rate cooperation in East Asia and even the formation of the best currency area. It is guaranteed by close trade links between East Asian economies, similar industrial structure and trade structure, converging economic cycle and macroeconomic policy, which can continue for a long time in the future, on the premise of the return mechanism of commodity dollar and the overall regional economic growth in East Asia.
Based on the spontaneous exchange rate coordination of East Asian economies, this paper uses the optimal monetary area theory to test whether the East Asian spontaneous exchange rate coordination region constitutes the optimal currency area. First, the macroeconomic policy adjustment of establishing the optimal currency area is analyzed by establishing a mathematical model. Then, the standard of production factors for East Asian economies is made. The standard of economic openness, the standard of product diversification, the standard of financial integration, the standard of inflation similarity and the standard of policy integration are tested. The results show that the test result of the standard test of the best currency area of East Asia economy is not ideal, which is not only related to the feasibility and efficiency of the standard selection, but also with some special circumstances of the East Asian economies. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes whether East Asian economies have an "post" optimal currency area from the degree of integration of East Asian economies. In the long run, the region of the spontaneous exchange rate coordination of East Asian economies meets some conditions for the formation of the best currency, and has the possibility of pushing into a higher level of cooperation.
The article finally discusses the long-term arrangement of exchange rate coordination and cooperation in East Asia. BeO and AIKEN Green (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1994) point out that any intermediate exchange rate system will eventually transition to the two pole exchange rate system. However, from the reality of the East Asian region, the dollar system is still the most important factor restricting its cooperation. On the basis of the analysis of the spontaneous exchange rate coordination in the East Asia region, the role of the RMB as a regional stabilizer is fully played, and the leading position of China, Japan and even the United States in regional cooperation is clearly defined. In the short term, further consolidation and strengthening of the exchange rate relationship between East Asian economies is further strengthened; in the medium term, consolidation is strengthened. The results of the East Asian monetary and financial cooperation have fully coordinated the relations between China and Japan, and in the long run, the East Asia regional exchange rate cooperation is promoted by the East Asian subregional exchange rate coordination, and the monetary integration in East Asia is finally realized.
The conclusion of this paper is as follows:
First, under the exchange rate regime of East Asian economies pegged to the US dollar, the economies of various economies show the characteristics of exchange rate linkage, forming spontaneous exchange rate coordination.
Second, this exchange rate linkage is based on a peg to the dollar, which is guaranteed by close trade links between East Asian economies, similar industrial and trade structures, converging economic cycles and macroeconomic policies.
Third, under the premise of ensuring the US dollar system and the overall regional economic growth in East Asia, this exchange rate linkage will continue for a long time in the future.
Fourth, the East Asian spontaneous exchange rate coordination area meets the criteria of some optimal monetary areas, which has the possibility of promoting higher level cooperation.
Fifth, in the short term, further consolidating and strengthening the exchange rate relationship between East Asian economies; in the medium term, the relationship between China and Japan is fully coordinated; in the long run, East Asia regional exchange rate cooperation is promoted by the East Asian subregional exchange rate coordination, and the monetary integration of East Asia is finally realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F823.1;F831.6

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1 付競卉;金融國家的形成與發(fā)展[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

2 付爭;對外負債在美國金融霸權(quán)維系中的作用[D];吉林大學(xué);2013年

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