發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-20 00:01

  本文選題：城投債 + 信用利差　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：城投債作為地方政府的融資工具之一,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)在我國(guó)發(fā)展較為緩慢。然而2009年之后,伴隨城市化建設(shè)的加速及金融危機(jī)后4萬(wàn)億經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的帶動(dòng),城投債成為地方政府解決資金缺口的重要融資手段,并迎來(lái)了高速增長(zhǎng)階段。然而,地方政府債務(wù)的過度膨脹導(dǎo)致其蘊(yùn)藏巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),尤其是進(jìn)入2013年,地方政府債務(wù)問題再度引發(fā)持續(xù)關(guān)注。信用利差作為信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的直接體現(xiàn),在此時(shí)對(duì)城投債信用利差的研究有助于正確認(rèn)識(shí)我國(guó)城投債市場(chǎng)存在的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文采用理論與實(shí)證相結(jié)合的研究方法,力圖通過理論論述及實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)分析我國(guó)城投債信用利差的影響因素。研究中首先對(duì)城投債及信用利差的概念特性進(jìn)行梳理；其次對(duì)我國(guó)城投債產(chǎn)生的背景、發(fā)展歷程及現(xiàn)狀等進(jìn)行全面的介紹,并提取出潛在的信用利差影響因子；最后通過實(shí)證研究得出城投債信用利差各影響因素的作用方向和影響程度。 本文通過因子分析提取出城投債信用利差的七大影響因素,并利用多元回歸構(gòu)建了實(shí)證模型,結(jié)果顯示,貨幣流動(dòng)性情況、主體規(guī)模及盈利能力、地方政府財(cái)政實(shí)力等因素對(duì)城投債的一級(jí)市場(chǎng)發(fā)行信用利差具備顯著地影響。這一方面驗(yàn)證了我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的債券直接融資市場(chǎng)仍不健全的事實(shí),債券發(fā)行定價(jià)機(jī)制受貨幣流動(dòng)性的影響較大；另一方面也從實(shí)證角度揭示了我國(guó)城投公司對(duì)地方政府財(cái)政支持的過度依賴性。文章的結(jié)論與目前我國(guó)城投債的運(yùn)行模式及市場(chǎng)狀況相吻合。
[Abstract]:As one of the financing tools of local government, city investment debt has been developing slowly in our country for a long time. However, after 2009, with the acceleration of urbanization and the economic stimulus of 4 trillion after the financial crisis, the city investment debt has become an important financing means for local governments to solve the financing gap, and ushered in a period of rapid growth. However, the excessive expansion of local government debt has led to huge risks, especially in 2013, and the problem of local government debt has aroused renewed concern. As the direct embodiment of credit risk, the research on credit spread of city investment bond is helpful to understand the credit risk of our country's city investment bond market. This paper tries to analyze the influencing factors of credit spread of city investment debt in China by theoretical discussion and empirical test by means of combining theory with empirical research. In the study, firstly, the concept characteristics of city investment debt and credit interest difference are combed out; secondly, the background, development course and present situation of city investment debt in China are introduced comprehensively, and the potential credit interest difference influencing factors are extracted. Finally, through the empirical study, we get the direction and degree of the influence factors of the credit spread of city investment debt. Through factor analysis, this paper extracts the seven factors that affect the credit spread of city investment debt, and constructs an empirical model by using multiple regression. The results show that the money liquidity, the main body size and the profitability are the main factors. The local government financial strength and other factors have a significant impact on the credit spread of the first-class market. On the one hand, it verifies the fact that the current direct bond financing market in China is still imperfect, and the pricing mechanism of bond issuance is greatly influenced by monetary liquidity. On the other hand, it also reveals the excessive dependence of CICC on local government financial support from an empirical point of view. The conclusion of this paper is consistent with the operation mode and market situation of our country's city investment debt.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5;F299.24;F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1912265