本文選題：民營銀行發(fā)展 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：超過三十年的改革開放，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展成就吸引了全世界的關(guān)注。改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長和發(fā)展，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長率始終保持7%以上的高速增長，到2010年，中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）首次超過日本，成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，發(fā)展到2013年底，我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）已經(jīng)突破56萬億元人民幣。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長在極大的程度上證明了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)體制漸進(jìn)式轉(zhuǎn)軌的成功，，這種成功是多種因素作用的結(jié)果。本文認(rèn)為，中國的漸進(jìn)式經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌的成功在很大程度上得益于民營經(jīng)濟(jì)從無到有、不斷發(fā)展壯大和持續(xù)的增長以及民營銀行對民營經(jīng)濟(jì)的鼎力支持。相對于國有獨資商業(yè)銀行，服務(wù)于民營經(jīng)濟(jì)實體的民營銀行的發(fā)展壯大應(yīng)該對民營經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)而整個國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生不可小覷的影響力量。本文試圖從民營銀行在規(guī)模上的絕對發(fā)展和與國有銀行相比在規(guī)模上的相對發(fā)展兩種視角出發(fā)，檢驗我國民營銀行的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的動態(tài)因果關(guān)系，探究我國民營銀行的發(fā)展是否、如何以及在多大程度上對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長做出貢獻(xiàn)，并回答兩個問題：相比于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的速度，民營銀行在規(guī)模上的絕對發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長會具有什么樣的作用；相比于國有商業(yè)銀行的發(fā)展速度，民營銀行在規(guī)模上的相對發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長又會具有什么樣的作用。 本文的章節(jié)安排如下：第一章為緒論，主要介紹選題背景和研究意義、研究對象、研究的方法、文章的結(jié)構(gòu)安排以及本文的創(chuàng)新之處；第二章為文獻(xiàn)綜述，梳理國內(nèi)外在金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、銀行業(yè)市場結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)績效、銀行業(yè)市場結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的研究現(xiàn)狀和文獻(xiàn)資料；第三章為理論分析框架，在金融抑制和金融深化理論、加爾比斯（Galbis，1977）金融發(fā)展的兩部門模型以及帕加諾（Pagano，1993）擴(kuò)展的包含金融發(fā)展的內(nèi)生增長模型的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合我國的具體實際情況，將加爾比斯金融發(fā)展兩部門模型和帕加諾擴(kuò)展的AK模型相結(jié)合，提出我國的民營銀行發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的兩部門模型，分析民營銀行在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的作用和影響途徑；第四章是對中國銀行業(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長概況的歷史回顧，闡明了中國民營經(jīng)濟(jì)和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的情況以及民營銀行和國有銀行發(fā)展情況；第五章為時間序列實證檢驗分析，以向量自回歸（VAR）模型為基礎(chǔ)，以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、民營銀行發(fā)展、對外開放、勞動投入以及資本存量作為模型中的變量指標(biāo)，采用1985~2012年的年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本數(shù)據(jù)，來分析研究我國民營銀行發(fā)展在絕對量和相對量層面上在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的相對影響作用；第六章為面板數(shù)據(jù)實證檢驗分析，在第五章實證分析得出的結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出假說，在面板數(shù)據(jù)模型的框架下，采用全國28個省區(qū)市2007~2011年的面板數(shù)據(jù)，運用固定效應(yīng)（FE）模型和隨機(jī)效應(yīng)（RE）模型以及霍斯曼（Hausman）檢驗并通過穩(wěn)健性檢驗，考察和研究我國各個地區(qū)民營銀行的絕對發(fā)展和相對發(fā)展對地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高的影響效應(yīng)；第七章是結(jié)論和政策建議，總結(jié)本文時間序列和面板模型兩種實證研究的主要結(jié)論，通過以向量自回歸（VAR）模型為基礎(chǔ)的協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析以及方差分解分析得出結(jié)論，認(rèn)為民營銀行在規(guī)模上的絕對發(fā)展和相對發(fā)展都對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到了促進(jìn)的作用，同時，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也對民營銀行絕對和相對的發(fā)展具有一定的反饋作用，但是民營銀行發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用更強(qiáng)；通過基于面板數(shù)據(jù)（Panel Data）模型的實證檢驗，認(rèn)為我國各個地區(qū)的民營銀行的絕對發(fā)展和相對發(fā)展對地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高都有重要的促進(jìn)作用。并以實證分析得出的結(jié)論為依據(jù)闡明未來我國銀行體系改革和金融系統(tǒng)改革的政策建議，最后說明了本文在研究過程中的不足之處和未來的研究方向。
[Abstract]:After more than thirty years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has attracted the attention of the world. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has sustained a steady growth and development, and the growth rate of GDP has maintained a high rate of more than 7%. By 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded Japan for the first time and became the second largest economy in the world. By the end of 2013, China's gross domestic product (GDP) has already exceeded RMB 56 trillion yuan. The sustained growth of China's economy has proved to a great extent the success of the gradual transition of China's economic system. This success is the result of many factors. This article holds that the success of China's gradual economic transition is to a great extent. The development and expansion of private banks, which serve private economic entities, should have an important influence on the development of private economy and the whole country's economy. This article tries to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the development of private banks and the economic growth in China from the two perspectives of the absolute development of the private banks on the scale and the relative development of the state-owned banks on the scale, and to explore the development of private banks in our country, if and to what extent the economic growth is paid. And answer two questions: compared to the speed of economic development, the absolute development of private banks on the scale of economic growth will have what kind of role. Compared to the speed of the development of state-owned commercial banks, the relative development of private banks on the scale of economic growth will have what kind of role.
The chapter is arranged as follows: the first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic, the research object, the research method, the structure of the article and the innovation of this article. The second chapter is the literature review, combing the domestic and external financial development and economic growth, the market structure and economic performance of the silver industry, and the banking market structure. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis framework, the third chapter is the theoretical analysis framework, the two sector model of financial development, the financial development of Garr bis (1977) and the endogenous growth model which is extended by Pagano (Pagano, 1993), which includes the financial development, and combines the concrete actual situation of our country. With the combination of the two sector model of Garr bis financial development and the AK model extended by the park, the two sector model of the development and economic growth of private banks in China is put forward, and the role and influence ways of private banks in economic growth are analyzed. The fourth chapter is a historical review of the development of China's banking industry and the general situation of economic growth. The development of private economy and national economy as well as the development of private banks and state-owned banks; the fifth chapter is the empirical test analysis of time series, based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model, with the economic growth, the development of private banks, the opening to the outside world, the labor input and the stock of capital as the variables of the model, and the use of 1985~2012 The annual data of the year is the sample data to analyze the relative influence of the development of private banks in our country on the absolute and relative level in the economic growth. The sixth chapter is the empirical test analysis of panel data and the false statement on the basis of the conclusions obtained in the fifth chapter. The panel data of 28 provinces and regions in China, using the fixed effect (FE) model and the random effect (RE) model, Horsman (Hausman) test and the robustness test, investigated and studied the effect of the absolute development and relative development of private banks on regional economic growth and the increase of total factor productivity in each region of China. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion, and summarizes the main conclusions of the two empirical studies of the time series and the panel model. Through the cointegration test based on the vector autoregression (VAR) model, the Grainger causality test, the impulse response function analysis and the variance decomposition analysis, the conclusion is drawn that the private banks are absolute on the scale. Both development and relative development have played a role in promoting economic growth. At the same time, economic growth also has a certain feedback effect on the absolute and relative development of private banks, but the development of private banks has a stronger role in promoting economic growth. Through the empirical test based on the panel data (Panel Data) model, it is considered that each region of our country The absolute development and relative development of private banks have an important role in promoting regional economic growth and the increase of total factor productivity. Based on the conclusions of empirical analysis, the policy proposals for the reform of the banking system and the reform of the financial system in the future are clarified. Finally, the shortcomings of this article in the study process are explained. Future research direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.1;F832.33

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