發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-13 13:57

【摘要】：2008年以來(lái)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)出現(xiàn)諸多變數(shù),國(guó)際金融危機(jī)導(dǎo)致世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式和調(diào)整變化的過(guò)程極其復(fù)雜,國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨改革和調(diào)整的階段,直接影響各產(chǎn)業(yè)的生存和發(fā)展�；�肥行業(yè)作為中國(guó)主要關(guān)系國(guó)計(jì)民生的行業(yè)之一同樣面臨各種沖擊,行業(yè)不規(guī)范、進(jìn)入門檻低、產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩、惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)等等已經(jīng)在持續(xù)惡化,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)判大幅失準(zhǔn)令人震驚,較高的行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)刻都在影響化肥行業(yè)的后續(xù)發(fā)展。同時(shí)一些具有前瞻意識(shí)和先進(jìn)管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)的企業(yè)正在尋找一條可持續(xù)發(fā)展之路,通過(guò)不斷地自我完善來(lái)規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn),尋求更大的發(fā)展,因此化肥行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究就顯得極為重要和關(guān)鍵。本文以中化化肥有限公司(以下簡(jiǎn)稱中化化肥)為研究對(duì)象,辨識(shí)了中化化肥在經(jīng)營(yíng)管理過(guò)程中存在的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn),建立了中化化肥風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,應(yīng)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法得到了中化化肥在經(jīng)營(yíng)管理過(guò)程中的安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),提出了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施。首先,本文開篇簡(jiǎn)要介紹了本次研究的背景和意義,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了論述及評(píng)述。其次,介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本概念,并對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的過(guò)程進(jìn)行逐一闡述,分別為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)。接著,介紹中化化肥的基本情況,把中化化肥在經(jīng)營(yíng)管理過(guò)程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分為內(nèi)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行逐一識(shí)別,其中內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要包括存貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、業(yè)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和人員風(fēng)險(xiǎn),外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要包括市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其他外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并根據(jù)識(shí)別的結(jié)果得出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系。然后,根據(jù)專家建議建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分級(jí)原則,運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)中化化肥內(nèi)外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了評(píng)估,根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的最大隸屬度原則總結(jié)出了中化化肥各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),同時(shí)結(jié)合各類指標(biāo)得出中化化肥的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。最后,針對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估結(jié)果,本文對(duì)不同等級(jí)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, there have been many variables in the world economic situation. The international financial crisis has caused the world economic growth model and the process of adjustment and change to be extremely complex. The domestic economy is facing the stage of reform and adjustment, which directly affects the survival and development of various industries. The chemical fertilizer industry, as one of the major industries in China that has a major bearing on the national economy and the people's livelihood, also faces various kinds of shocks. The industry is not standardized, the barriers to entry are low, the production capacity is overcapacity, the vicious competition and so on have continued to deteriorate. Higher industry risk is always affecting the follow-up development of the fertilizer industry. At the same time, some enterprises with foresight and advanced management experience are looking for a way of sustainable development, through continuous self-improvement to avoid risks and seek greater development. Therefore, the risk research of chemical fertilizer industry is very important and key. This paper takes Sinochem Fertilizer Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as Sinochem Fertilizer) as the research object, identifies the main risks in the process of operation and management of Sinochem Fertilizer, and establishes the risk evaluation index system of Sinochem Chemical Fertilizer. The safety risk grade of Sinochem chemical fertilizer in the process of operation and management was obtained by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the corresponding risk countermeasures were put forward. Firstly, the background and significance of this study are briefly introduced, and the current situation of risk research at home and abroad is discussed and reviewed. Secondly, the basic concept of risk management is introduced, and the process of risk management is described one by one, namely risk identification, risk evaluation and risk response. Then, the paper introduces the basic situation of Sinochem, classifies the risks of Sinochem into internal and external risks, including inventory risk, financial risk, business risk and personnel risk. External risk includes market risk, credit risk, policy risk and other external risk. Then, according to the expert's suggestion to establish the risk classification principle, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the internal and external risks of Sinochem chemical fertilizer, according to the principle of maximum membership degree of risk, summed up the various risk grades of Sinochem chemical fertilizer. At the same time, combined with all kinds of indicators, the comprehensive risk level of chemical fertilizer in China is obtained. Finally, according to the results of risk assessment, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk countermeasures for different levels of risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.72;F272.3

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本文編號(hào)：2119601