【摘要】：2008年以來世界經(jīng)濟形勢出現(xiàn)諸多變數(shù),國際金融危機導(dǎo)致世界經(jīng)濟增長模式和調(diào)整變化的過程極其復(fù)雜,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟面臨改革和調(diào)整的階段,直接影響各產(chǎn)業(yè)的生存和發(fā)展�；市袠I(yè)作為中國主要關(guān)系國計民生的行業(yè)之一同樣面臨各種沖擊,行業(yè)不規(guī)范、進入門檻低、產(chǎn)能過剩、惡性競爭等等已經(jīng)在持續(xù)惡化,風險預(yù)判大幅失準令人震驚,較高的行業(yè)風險時刻都在影響化肥行業(yè)的后續(xù)發(fā)展。同時一些具有前瞻意識和先進管理經(jīng)驗的企業(yè)正在尋找一條可持續(xù)發(fā)展之路,通過不斷地自我完善來規(guī)避風險,尋求更大的發(fā)展,因此化肥行業(yè)的風險研究就顯得極為重要和關(guān)鍵。本文以中化化肥有限公司(以下簡稱中化化肥)為研究對象,辨識了中化化肥在經(jīng)營管理過程中存在的主要風險,建立了中化化肥風險評價指標體系,應(yīng)用模糊綜合評價方法得到了中化化肥在經(jīng)營管理過程中的安全風險等級,提出了相應(yīng)的風險應(yīng)對措施。首先,本文開篇簡要介紹了本次研究的背景和意義,對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)風險研究現(xiàn)狀進行了論述及評述。其次,介紹了風險管理的基本概念,并對風險管理的過程進行逐一闡述,分別為風險識別、風險評價和風險應(yīng)對。接著,介紹中化化肥的基本情況,把中化化肥在經(jīng)營管理過程中的風險分為內(nèi)外部風險進行逐一識別,其中內(nèi)部風險主要包括存貨風險、財務(wù)風險、業(yè)務(wù)風險和人員風險,外部風險主要包括市場風險、信用風險、政策風險和其他外部風險,并根據(jù)識別的結(jié)果得出風險指標體系。然后,根據(jù)專家建議建立風險分級原則,運用模糊綜合評價法對中化化肥內(nèi)外部風險進行了評估,根據(jù)風險的最大隸屬度原則總結(jié)出了中化化肥各類風險等級,同時結(jié)合各類指標得出中化化肥的綜合風險等級。最后,針對風險評估結(jié)果,本文對不同等級的風險提出相應(yīng)的風險應(yīng)對措施。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, there have been many variables in the world economic situation. The international financial crisis has caused the world economic growth model and the process of adjustment and change to be extremely complex. The domestic economy is facing the stage of reform and adjustment, which directly affects the survival and development of various industries. The chemical fertilizer industry, as one of the major industries in China that has a major bearing on the national economy and the people's livelihood, also faces various kinds of shocks. The industry is not standardized, the barriers to entry are low, the production capacity is overcapacity, the vicious competition and so on have continued to deteriorate. Higher industry risk is always affecting the follow-up development of the fertilizer industry. At the same time, some enterprises with foresight and advanced management experience are looking for a way of sustainable development, through continuous self-improvement to avoid risks and seek greater development. Therefore, the risk research of chemical fertilizer industry is very important and key. This paper takes Sinochem Fertilizer Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as Sinochem Fertilizer) as the research object, identifies the main risks in the process of operation and management of Sinochem Fertilizer, and establishes the risk evaluation index system of Sinochem Chemical Fertilizer. The safety risk grade of Sinochem chemical fertilizer in the process of operation and management was obtained by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the corresponding risk countermeasures were put forward. Firstly, the background and significance of this study are briefly introduced, and the current situation of risk research at home and abroad is discussed and reviewed. Secondly, the basic concept of risk management is introduced, and the process of risk management is described one by one, namely risk identification, risk evaluation and risk response. Then, the paper introduces the basic situation of Sinochem, classifies the risks of Sinochem into internal and external risks, including inventory risk, financial risk, business risk and personnel risk. External risk includes market risk, credit risk, policy risk and other external risk. Then, according to the expert's suggestion to establish the risk classification principle, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the internal and external risks of Sinochem chemical fertilizer, according to the principle of maximum membership degree of risk, summed up the various risk grades of Sinochem chemical fertilizer. At the same time, combined with all kinds of indicators, the comprehensive risk level of chemical fertilizer in China is obtained. Finally, according to the results of risk assessment, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk countermeasures for different levels of risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.72;F272.3

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