本文關鍵詞：經濟增長與污染排放的空間耦合分析——以工業(yè)廢水為例，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

經濟增長與污染排放的空間耦合分析——以工業(yè)廢水為例

Spatial coupling of economic development and pollution emission：taking industrial wastewater for example

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LUO Haijiang China National Environmental Monitoring Center,Beijing 100012,China

中國環(huán)境監(jiān)測總站,北京100012

文章摘要：為分析改革開放以來工業(yè)廢水排放與工業(yè)產值在空間變化上的耦合過程,將全國分為4個地區(qū),1981—2011年分為4個階段,并引入偏離-份額分析法進行定量計算。結果表明,1）31年來,中國工業(yè)廢水排放量呈現＂上升-下降-上升-下降＂的波動式變化趨勢。其中,1987年排放量最高,達260.3×108t;1997年排放量最低,為184.5×108t。2）分省區(qū)看,工業(yè)廢水排放量相對集中。31年來,排放量超過400×108t的5個省份（江蘇、四川、廣東、湖南、浙江）占全國總量的37.2%。3）西部地區(qū)工業(yè)廢水排放強度年均降低11.8%,降幅高于東部、東北、中部的9.9%、10.2%、11.5%。4）相比于工業(yè)產值的增長,4大地區(qū)間工業(yè)廢水增長速度的差異更大,各地間的非均衡增長更為明顯。同時在4大地區(qū)內部,工業(yè)廢水排放量的差異也在變大。5）31年來,地區(qū)間工業(yè)經濟經歷了＂低水平均衡-非均衡-均衡＂的過程,而工業(yè)廢水排放量則基本向非均衡狀態(tài)發(fā)展。6）技術因素（工業(yè)廢水排放強度）對廢水排放量增量的抑制作用將逐漸減弱,工業(yè)廢水增長量受工業(yè)產值增長的影響將越來越明顯。

Abstr：In order to analysis the spatial coupling variation of industrial wastewater discharge and industrial output value since the Reform and Opening,we divided the whole country into four regions and the long time period（from 1981 to 2011） into four periods.The shift-share model was introduced into quantitative calculation.The results showed that： 1）During the 31 years（from 1981 to 2011）,the amount of industrial wastewater discharged in China showed an ‘increasing-declining-increasing-declining’ time trend with a fluctuations.The maximum amount was 260.3×108 t in 1987,and the minimum amount was 184.5×108 t in 1997.2）Amount of industrial wastewater discharged was relatively concentrated on province level.From 1981 to 2011,the total amount of Jiangsu,Sichuan,Guangdong,Hunan and Zhejiang was more than 400×108t;and the combined amount of these provinces accounted for 37.2% of the national total.3）The annual average reduction on amount of industrial wastewater discharged was 11.8% in the western areas,9.9% in the east areas,10.2% in the northeast areas,and 11.5% in the middle areas.The annual average reduction on amount of industrial wastewater discharged in western areas was higher than that in other areas.4）Compared to the growth of industrial output value,difference on the growth rate of industrial wastewater was wider and unbalanced growth was more obvious among the four areas.Meanwhile,the difference on amount of industrial wastewater discharged among the four areas was becoming wider.5）During the 31 years,regional industrial economy experienced a ‘low-level equilibrium’ – ‘non-balanced’ – ‘balanced’ process,whereas amount of industrial wastewater discharged basically developed to the non-balanced status.6）Inhibitory effect of technical f

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:shift-share model industrial wastewater coupling pollutant discharge economic growth

課題項目：國家水體污染控制與治理科技重大專項（2009ZX07106-001-001）

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關鍵詞：經濟增長與污染排放的空間耦合分析——以工業(yè)廢水為例，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。