發(fā)布時間：2018-06-16 19:27

  本文選題：投機(jī) + 協(xié)方差分析��； 參考：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2002年以來國際油價快速上漲，在2008年7月達(dá)到每桶147美元的歷史高位，短短幾個月的時間又迅速跌至40美元附近。如此劇烈的波動僅用供給需求、美元貶值等傳統(tǒng)影響因素很難給出合理的解釋，很多人開始將矛頭指向原油期貨市場。他們認(rèn)為大量資金進(jìn)入原油期貨市場進(jìn)行投機(jī)導(dǎo)致了油價泡沫，但是投機(jī)對油價變動到底有沒有影響一直存在爭議，而且缺乏實(shí)證分析。本文就是以此為出發(fā)點(diǎn)解決以下幾個問題：第一、原油期貨投機(jī)對油價到底有沒有顯著影響；第二、短期內(nèi)原油期貨投機(jī)對油價的影響程度有多大，長期內(nèi)哪種因素占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位；第三、傳統(tǒng)影響因素和投機(jī)因素共同作用如何影響國際油價；第四、在傳統(tǒng)影響因素以及投機(jī)因素共同影響下國際油價將如何變動。 本文利用最新數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用協(xié)方差分析、脈沖響應(yīng)分析、方差分解、協(xié)整和VEC模型以及BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分別對上述問題進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，最終得到以下結(jié)論：短期內(nèi)原油期貨投機(jī)對油價有顯著影響，原油期貨投機(jī)對油價的沖擊可使油價上漲15美元左右，而且投機(jī)因素對油價變動的貢獻(xiàn)度可以達(dá)到60%；長期來看供給需求和美元貶值對油價的影響依然占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，其中供給需求對油價的貢獻(xiàn)度達(dá)到40%，，美元貶值的貢獻(xiàn)度在20%左右，原油期貨投機(jī)貢獻(xiàn)度在5%左右。另外通過協(xié)整分析得知油價與影響因素之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系，而且向量誤差修正模型符合反向修正機(jī)制，短期內(nèi)考慮原油期貨投機(jī)作用可有效的預(yù)測較大的油價波動。通過相關(guān)性分析、對比分析并且借助于圖表分析得知商品指數(shù)基金在長期內(nèi)能夠促進(jìn)油價持續(xù)上漲，但是油價的大幅波動主要是由于非商業(yè)持倉追漲殺跌所致，而且投機(jī)資金規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大，已經(jīng)具備左右國際油價的能力。 高油價加劇了全球通貨膨脹，對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成很大影響。我國石油對外依存度已超過50%，油價的劇烈波動嚴(yán)重危及我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，本文在相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上對有關(guān)部門提出以下合理的建議：期貨交易所應(yīng)該加大對非商業(yè)持倉的監(jiān)管力度，可適當(dāng)提高保證金限制投機(jī)炒作；國內(nèi)應(yīng)該推動原油期貨商品的上市進(jìn)程，石油公司也應(yīng)抓住機(jī)遇擴(kuò)大商業(yè)庫存，加大海洋石油開發(fā)投資，并且不斷完善國內(nèi)成品油定價機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:International oil prices have risen rapidly since 2002, reaching an all-time high of $147 a barrel in July 2008, before falling to around $40 in just a few months. With such sharp volatility using only supply demand, traditional factors such as a weaker dollar are hard to justify, many people are starting to blame the crude oil futures market. They argue that speculation in crude oil futures markets led to a bubble in oil prices, but whether speculation has an impact on oil prices has been controversial, and there is a lack of empirical analysis. This paper takes this as a starting point to solve the following problems: first, whether speculation in crude oil futures has a significant impact on oil prices; and second, how much impact oil futures speculation has on oil prices in the short term. In the long run, which factors occupy the dominant position; third, how the traditional factors and speculative factors affect the international oil price; fourthly, how will the international oil price change under the influence of the traditional factors and speculative factors. In this paper, we use the latest data, covariance analysis, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition, cointegration and VEC model and BP neural network to analyze the above problems. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn: in the short term, speculation in crude oil futures has a significant impact on the oil price. The impact of speculation on oil prices can make the oil price rise by about $15, and the contribution of speculative factors to the change of oil price can reach 60%. In the long run, supply demand and the depreciation of the dollar still play a dominant role in the oil price. The contribution of supply demand to oil price is 40%, the contribution of dollar depreciation is about 20%, and the contribution of speculation in crude oil futures is about 5%. In addition, the cointegration analysis shows that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between oil price and influencing factors, and the vector error correction model accords with the reverse correction mechanism. In the short term, considering the speculative effect of crude oil futures can effectively predict large oil price fluctuations. Through correlation analysis, comparative analysis and chart analysis, we can see that commodity index funds can promote the oil price rising continuously in the long run, but the large fluctuation of oil price is mainly caused by non-commercial positions chasing after the rise and down. And the scale of speculative funds continues to expand, already have the ability to control the international oil price. High oil prices have exacerbated global inflation and have had a great impact on the global economy. The degree of dependence on foreign oil in China has exceeded 50%, and the sharp fluctuation of oil prices seriously endangers the economic development of our country. Based on the relevant research, this paper puts forward the following reasonable suggestions to the relevant departments: the futures exchange should strengthen the supervision of non-commercial positions, which can appropriately increase margin to limit speculation; China should promote the listing process of crude oil futures commodities, and oil companies should seize the opportunity to expand commercial inventory, increase investment in offshore oil development, and constantly improve the pricing mechanism of domestic refined oil products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F416.22;F831.53

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