發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-06 03:27

  本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理　切入點(diǎn)：模糊層次分析　出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是居民生活的重要載體是城市建設(shè)的重要保障。從我國(guó)目前房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)實(shí)際來看,雖然近10年左右的時(shí)間,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)歷了大的起伏波動(dòng),但無法否認(rèn)的是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)仍然是我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分,因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要影響,越來越多的學(xué)者從理論的方面對(duì)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目管理進(jìn)行了深入的研究,逐漸的形成了一門新的學(xué)科。從目前理論界來看,國(guó)外對(duì)項(xiàng)目管理的整個(gè)運(yùn)作過程研究歷史相對(duì)較早,國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)這方面的研究起步相對(duì)較晚,的的確確存在一定的差距。在項(xiàng)目管理的整個(gè)過程包括項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度控制、項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理等都是比較重要的本文結(jié)合濟(jì)南龍洞路鑫源山莊房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行了研究。本文以濟(jì)南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象,充分利用項(xiàng)目管理理論、項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論進(jìn)行了分析研究,主要研究步驟如下：首先對(duì)研究此項(xiàng)目的背景和意義進(jìn)行闡述,并分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的研究現(xiàn)狀,詳細(xì)介紹了濟(jì)南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的基本情況,提出了相應(yīng)的研究?jī)?nèi)容和方法；其次通過對(duì)濟(jì)南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的投資階段、前期準(zhǔn)備階段、建設(shè)階段以及后期的銷售階段等四個(gè)階段進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別,并對(duì)所識(shí)別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)著重運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目整個(gè)過程的全面評(píng)價(jià)；最后結(jié)合識(shí)別、評(píng)價(jià)出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),分別針對(duì)四個(gè)階段提出了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施,主要是：投資決策階段,應(yīng)當(dāng)著重考慮項(xiàng)目銷售能否按照預(yù)定計(jì)劃完成,銷售資金能否及時(shí)得到回收、銷售價(jià)格能否下降,同業(yè)者的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)；前期準(zhǔn)備階段,對(duì)市場(chǎng)供求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施,對(duì)資金籌集風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施,法律、法規(guī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施；項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段：對(duì)施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施,對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)變更風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施；項(xiàng)目銷售階段：主要是選擇合理的營(yíng)銷模式等。本文研究的濟(jì)南龍洞路鑫源山莊建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理,結(jié)合項(xiàng)目自身特點(diǎn),基本的建立了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控的模型,為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商提供了一定的參考依據(jù),實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警。同時(shí),著重通過分析市場(chǎng)環(huán)境、項(xiàng)目本身優(yōu)劣勢(shì)特點(diǎn)等構(gòu)建項(xiàng)目合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控體系,將這種策略運(yùn)用到其他類似房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目是可行的,對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)來說具有一定的指導(dǎo)和操作意義。利用模糊綜合評(píng)判法和層次分析法,建立了濟(jì)南龍洞路項(xiàng)目鑫源山莊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)排序的評(píng)定,對(duì)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控具有指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is an important carrier of living is an important guarantee of city construction. From China's current real estate industry practice, although in recent 10 years, China's real estate industry has experienced large fluctuations, but it is undeniable that the real estate industry is still an important part of our national economy because the real estate industry, an important influence on the economy, more and more scholars have conducted in-depth research on the real estate project management from the aspects of the theory, and gradually formed a new subject. From the present theory, the foreign study of history in the process of project management in domestic research started relatively early, this the relatively late, indeed there is a certain gap in the whole process of project management including project schedule control, project risk management is more important in this paper Ji'nan Xinyuan cave Road Villa real estate projects carried out research on risk management. This paper takes Ji'nan cave Road, Xinyuan villa construction project as the research object, make full use of project management theory, project risk management theory is studied, the main steps are as follows: firstly the background and significance of the research of this project are described, and the analysis of the research status at home and abroad to project risk management, introduces the basic situation of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction project, puts forward the research contents and methods of the corresponding; followed by Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction project investment stage, preparation stage, construction stage and sales of late stage of four stages of risk identification, comprehensive evaluation and the risk of the identified mainly uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the whole project process; finally, the identification, risk assessment According to the four stages, put forward the corresponding risk control measures, mainly investment decision stage, should focus on project sales can be completed according to the schedule, funds can get timely recovery of sales, sales prices will decline, the industry competition; the preparation stage, control measures on market supply and demand risk, legal control measures to raise funds, risk, risk control measures and regulations; project construction phase: measures to control the risk of construction schedule, control measures of design change risk; project sales: the main stage if choosing reasonable marketing mode. This paper studies the risk management of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road construction projects, combined with the project characteristics basically, the establishment of the real estate development risk management model, which provides a certain reference for real estate developers, the realization of real estate Risk warning development project. At the same time, mainly through the analysis of the market environment, advantages and disadvantages of the project itself characteristics construction project reasonable risk prevention and control system, this method will be applied to other similar real estate project is feasible, and it has certain guiding significance for the operation of real estate enterprises. Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method, established the risk assessment of Ji'nan Xinyuan villa Longdong road project model, realizes the evaluation of risk assessment and risk rank, has the guiding sense to the project risk management.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;TU71

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 邵梅;;房地產(chǎn)投資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法分析與研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2015年01期

2 史輝情;;投標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)怎樣規(guī)避[J];施工企業(yè)管理;2012年04期

3 史輝情;;淺談建設(shè)工程項(xiàng)目投標(biāo)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)與決策[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)信息;2012年02期

4 趙志君;;房?jī)r(jià)硬著陸 經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸[J];中國(guó)發(fā)展觀察;2011年12期

5 陳德強(qiáng);潘高;;幾種項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法比較[J];合作經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2011年18期

6 陳振龍;秦盈;胡剛;;項(xiàng)目管理在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)中的應(yīng)用[J];商品與質(zhì)量;2011年S7期

7 劉德亞;;房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[J];職大學(xué)報(bào);2009年03期

8 馬俊;;試論房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)與發(fā)展中的作用[J];魅力中國(guó);2009年20期

9 馬楠;;工程項(xiàng)目最低投標(biāo)價(jià)中標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[J];煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2008年03期

10 謝阿明;;建筑施工企業(yè)對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別和防范[J];建筑施工;2007年08期

，

本文編號(hào)：1573156