【摘要】：物流需求預(yù)測是物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃的基礎(chǔ),準(zhǔn)確的需求預(yù)測能提高物流運(yùn)作的效率,對物流資源的有效配置起到積極的作用,也有助于把握區(qū)域物流需求的強(qiáng)度,實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域物流需求與供給的相對平衡,對提高區(qū)域物流規(guī)劃質(zhì)量和區(qū)域物流運(yùn)行效率具有重要的理論與實(shí)際意義。本文主要研究“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下甘肅省的物流需求預(yù)測,創(chuàng)新性的將“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略影響中的各種定性、定量指標(biāo)分別采用不同的方法進(jìn)行量化,建立了一種基于虛擬變量的回歸預(yù)測模型(DVR模型),并分別用MLR模型、GM(1,1)灰色預(yù)測模型與自己建立的DVR模型,根據(jù)甘肅省2001-2015年的面板數(shù)據(jù)對2016年的物流需求進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,結(jié)果表明:(1)“一帶一路”政策因素對甘肅省物流需求具有積極的促進(jìn)作用;(2)DVR模型能提高預(yù)測的精度,可以為“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下的甘肅省物流需求規(guī)劃提供一定的決策支持。本文主要完成了以下工作:1、建立了“一帶一路”政策影響下甘肅省情境化的物流需求指標(biāo)體系。根據(jù)甘肅省在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略中的定位,“一帶一路”政策落實(shí)情況及與物流相關(guān)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,將自實(shí)施“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略以來甘肅省與之相關(guān)的政策、會議、建設(shè)情況等事件進(jìn)行整理、分類,并按不同類別對政策因素依照其特性進(jìn)行分析、提取指標(biāo),建立了指標(biāo)體系。2、將“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略對甘肅省物流需求的政策影響等定性和定量指標(biāo)分別進(jìn)行了量化。對其中的定性指標(biāo)采用AHP中的(-2,2)EM法進(jìn)行量化;定量指標(biāo)按照在建項(xiàng)目和建成項(xiàng)目分別進(jìn)行量化處理。并采用CRITIC法對各指標(biāo)賦予不同權(quán)重,對指標(biāo)進(jìn)行按類整合。3、構(gòu)建了基于“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略背景的甘肅省物流需求預(yù)測模型(DVR模型)。分析所提取指標(biāo)的特性,結(jié)合甘肅省的具體省情,建立基于“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的物流需求預(yù)測模型——虛擬變量回歸預(yù)測模型。4、根據(jù)分析結(jié)果給出了甘肅省在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略背景下發(fā)展物流產(chǎn)業(yè)的詳細(xì)建議。將DVR模型與其他幾種模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果作對比,進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,進(jìn)一步說明本模型在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略背景下甘肅省物流需求的預(yù)測中更為準(zhǔn)確。并依據(jù)以上分析提出了詳盡的政策建議,為甘肅物流發(fā)展提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:Logistics demand prediction is the basis of logistics development planning. Accurate demand prediction can improve the efficiency of logistics operation, play an active role in the effective allocation of logistics resources, and also help to grasp the intensity of regional logistics demand, realize the relative balance between regional logistics demand and supply, and improve the quality of regional logistics planning and regional logistics transportation. The line efficiency has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper mainly studies the logistics demand forecast of Gansu Province under the strategy of "one way along the road", and innovatively quantifies various qualitative and quantitative indexes in the strategic influence of "one area and one road", and establishes a regression prediction model based on virtual variables (DVR model). With the MLR model, GM (1,1) grey prediction model and the DVR model established by itself, the logistics demand in 2016 was predicted according to the panel data of 2001-2015 years in Gansu province. The results showed that (1) the policy factors of "one way and one road" had a positive effect on the logistics demand of Gansu province; (2) the DVR model could improve the accuracy of the forecast. It can provide a certain decision support for the logistics demand planning of Gansu Province under the "one way" strategy. This paper has completed the following work: 1, established the situational logistics demand index system of Gansu Province under the influence of "one way and one road" policy. According to the positioning of Gansu Province in the "one area and one road" strategy, the policy of "one road and one road" The implementation of the situation and the current situation of logistics related development will be organized and classified in Gansu province and related policies, conferences and construction conditions since the implementation of the "one road area" strategy. According to different categories, the policy factors are analyzed according to their characteristics, indexes are extracted and the index system.2 is established, and the "one way" strategy is made to Gansu Province. Qualitative and quantitative indicators are quantified, such as the policy impact of the demand for logistics in Jiangsu Province. The qualitative indexes are quantified by the (-2,2) EM method in AHP; quantitative indicators are quantified according to the construction projects and the built projects. The indexes are given different weights by the CRITIC method, and the index is integrated in the class according to the class.3. The Gansu logistics demand forecasting model (DVR model) is based on the strategic background of "one area and one road". The characteristics of the extracted indexes are analyzed and the logistics demand forecasting model based on the "one area and one road" strategy is set up based on the specific provincial situation in Gansu province. The model of virtual variable regression prediction model is.4. According to the analysis results, the "area of Gansu province" is given. The detailed suggestions on the development of logistics industry under the strategic background are made. The DVR model is compared with the results of other models to make an empirical analysis. It further illustrates that the model is more accurate in the forecast of logistics demand in Gansu Province under the "one along the road" strategy. And the detailed policy suggestions are put forward according to the above analysis. To provide decision support for the development of logistics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F259.27

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