發(fā)布時間：2018-07-09 22:50

  本文選題：肉類產品 + 價值鏈��； 參考：《江蘇師范大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：肉類產品屬于食品,是農產品的一部分。肉類產品和其他產品一樣,價格在市場上是波動的,在價值鏈的上下游間是傳遞的,價格傳遞會給生產企業(yè)帶來風險,這就需要經濟學的研究從理論上說明生產企業(yè)如何化解價格傳遞的風險問題。在實踐方面,目前食品安全事件是社會關注熱點,如何讓老百姓吃上放心肉已成為人們迫切期待解決的問題。在此背景下,消費者對肉類產品質量提出了更高的要求,給肉類企業(yè)的生產運營帶來了巨大的壓力與挑戰(zhàn),同時也面臨許多機遇。這就需要經濟學從理論上研究肉類生產企業(yè)如何保證食品安全、規(guī)避價格風險、提高自身競爭力的問題。因此,本文研究的主題或宗旨:肉類產品生產企業(yè)如何在保證讓老百姓吃上放心肉的基礎上,化解價格在價值鏈中傳遞所帶來的風險,以提高企業(yè)競爭力。肉類生產企業(yè)是其產品價格的制定者,同時也是價格接受者,承受著價格波動與傳遞的風險,故有必要先對我國肉類產品的價格波動進行分析。本文以豬肉價格為例,運用X12季節(jié)調整法和HP濾波法將豬肉價格進行分解,分析其波動特征;闡述了豬肉價格波動原因;基于肉類產品的價值鏈構成和價格傳遞機理的分析,對肉類相關價格數據進行ADF檢驗,運用協(xié)整檢驗、誤差修正模型和格蘭杰因果檢驗對肉類產品價值鏈中價格傳遞進行實證分析;分析價格波動及其傳遞對生產企業(yè)的影響。接著從供給角度,研究分析了肉類產品在價值鏈供給端中存在的風險及其機理。以熟肉制品為例,基于層次分析法對熟肉制品價值鏈風險進行評估,設計了7個一級指標,26個二級指標,以事前、事中和事后為風險評估的方案層,形成了熟肉制品價值鏈風險評估模型。運用YAAHP軟件統(tǒng)籌專家打分結果,表明產品風險、技術風險、物流風險是熟肉制品價值鏈中影響較大的風險因素。并對產品風險、技術風險、物流風險進行靈敏度分析,分析表明隨著3個風險權重的增加,風險控制階段從事前轉為事中控制,對熟肉制品價值鏈的事前控制應進一步加強。然后從需求角度,研究肉類產品在價值鏈需求端的風險。選取冷鮮肉為研究對象,基于消費者行為的三因素理論,運用層次-模糊綜合評價法對冷鮮肉消費者行為進行研究分析,表明消費者個人因素、心理因素和食品安全是冷鮮肉需求端重要的風險因素;網民較傾向于購買冷鮮肉,其中食品安全是肉類產品生產企業(yè)在價值鏈需求端面臨的最大的風險。最后,根據上述肉類產品供求角度的風險分析,價格在價值鏈中傳遞的機理分析,揭示了價格波動與傳遞的內在規(guī)律以及影響價格波動的因素,價格在價值鏈中傳遞的風險特征,據此對肉類生產企業(yè)如何消除價格波動與傳遞所帶來的風險或不利影響,提高自身競爭力提出一些建議。
[Abstract]:Meat products belong to food and are part of agricultural products. Like other products, the price of meat products fluctuates in the market and is transmitted between the upper and lower reaches of the value chain. Price transmission brings risks to the manufacturing enterprises. This requires the study of economics to explain theoretically how to resolve the risk of price transmission. In practice, the current food safety incidents are the focus of social concern, how to let the common people eat meat has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this context, consumers put forward higher requirements for the quality of meat products, which brings great pressure and challenges to the production and operation of meat enterprises, but also faces many opportunities. This requires economics to study theoretically how to ensure food safety, avoid the price risk and improve the competitiveness of meat production enterprises. Therefore, the theme or purpose of this study: how to ensure that the production of meat products on the basis of ensuring that the common people eat rest assured meat, to resolve the risk of price transmission in the value chain, in order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises. Meat production enterprises are the makers and receivers of the price of their products, and bear the risk of price fluctuation and transmission. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the price fluctuation of meat products in China first. Taking pork price as an example, this paper uses X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method to decompose pork price, analyze its fluctuation characteristics, explain the reason of pork price fluctuation, and analyze the value chain structure and price transfer mechanism based on meat products. Using ADF test, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the price transfer in the meat product value chain, and analyze the influence of price fluctuation and its transmission on the production enterprises. Then, the paper analyzes the risk and mechanism of meat products in the supply chain from the point of view of supply. Taking cooked meat products as an example, the risk assessment of cooked meat products value chain is carried out based on AHP. Seven primary indexes and 26 secondary indexes are designed. The risk assessment model of cooked meat products value chain is formed. Using YAAHP software as a whole, the results show that product risk, technical risk and logistics risk are the most important risk factors in cooked meat product value chain. The sensitivity analysis of product risk, technical risk and logistics risk shows that with the increase of the three risk weights, the risk control stage is converted to in-process control, and the prior control of the cooked meat product value chain should be further strengthened. Then from the demand point of view, the risk of meat products in the demand side of the value chain is studied. Based on the three-factor theory of consumer behavior, the cold fresh meat was selected as the research object, and the hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to study and analyze the consumer behavior of cold fresh meat. Psychological factors and food safety are important risk factors on the demand side of cold fresh meat, and Internet users tend to buy cold fresh meat, among which food safety is the biggest risk faced by meat production enterprises in the demand side of the value chain. Finally, according to the above risk analysis of meat product supply and demand angle, the mechanism of price transfer in the value chain is analyzed, and the inherent law of price fluctuation and transmission and the factors influencing price fluctuation are revealed. On the basis of the risk characteristics transmitted by price in the value chain, some suggestions on how to eliminate the risks or adverse effects brought by price fluctuation and transmission and to improve the competitiveness of meat producers are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.7

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本文編號：2110986