本文選題：農(nóng)村藥品零售市場(chǎng) + 農(nóng)村藥品零售價(jià)格�。� 參考：《價(jià)格理論與實(shí)踐》2017年03期

【摘要】：農(nóng)村中西藥品及醫(yī)療保健用品商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)是反映我國(guó)農(nóng)村居民醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生賣方市場(chǎng)價(jià)格信號(hào)的重要指標(biāo),結(jié)合現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況研究其波動(dòng)特征具有重要的理論價(jià)值。本文利用ARCH族模型對(duì)該零售價(jià)格指數(shù)的波動(dòng)特征進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。GARCH模型結(jié)果表明,該零售價(jià)格指數(shù)的波動(dòng)記憶性較強(qiáng),諸如醫(yī)藥政策改革、公共衛(wèi)生危機(jī)一類的事件信息對(duì)于價(jià)格指數(shù)的沖擊影響將是持久性的。EGARCH模型表明,整個(gè)樣本期間,相較"利空消息"而言,"利多消息"對(duì)農(nóng)村藥品零售市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響更大,為了穩(wěn)定我國(guó)農(nóng)村的藥品零售市場(chǎng),應(yīng)預(yù)防突發(fā)性公共衛(wèi)生事件對(duì)價(jià)格的沖擊,增加穩(wěn)定價(jià)格機(jī)制的宏觀政策
[Abstract]:The retail price index of Chinese and western medicines and medical care products in rural areas is an important index to reflect the market price signals of medical and health sellers of rural residents in our country. It is of great theoretical value to study its fluctuation characteristics in combination with the reality. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the volatility characteristics of the retail price index by using ARCH family model. The results show that the volatility memory of the retail price index is strong, such as the reform of pharmaceutical policy. The .EGARCH model, which shows that the impact of event information such as public health crisis on the impact of price index will be persistent, shows that, over the whole sample period, "good news" has a greater impact on the price fluctuation of rural drug retail market than "bad news". In order to stabilize the drug retail market in rural areas of China, we should prevent the impact of sudden public health events on prices and increase the macro policy of price stabilization mechanism.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)財(cái)政科學(xué)研究院;
【分類號(hào)】：F426.72;F726

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