發(fā)布時間：2018-04-07 19:11

  本文選題：持續(xù)使用意愿　切入點：微博　出處：《武漢大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當代自然災害不僅會直接造成生命財產損失,更會帶來諸多影響和諧穩(wěn)定的社會問題,風險溝通則已經被廣泛接受為應對這一局面的有效途徑。成功的風險溝通要求政府在處置自然災害風險時重視公眾在風險溝通主體地位,需要通過有效加強與公眾的互動來化解風險。而在目前的媒介化社會中,社交媒體是公眾最常使用的媒介之一,要加強與公眾的互動,提高自然災害風險溝通的有效性,就必須結合用戶的媒介使用習慣,考慮公眾在遭遇自然災害時是否會持續(xù)使用社交媒體來獲取災害信息。與此同時,大數據背景下的智能管理要求更高的大數據分析處理能力,這需要以建立特定的分析模型為基礎,為了在政府自然災害風險溝通工作中實現智能化,需要先行建立能夠描述公眾持續(xù)使用社交媒體獲取災害信息的相關模型,并通過嚴謹的量化研究得出相應結論,將此作為政府制定智能化自然災害應急預案的依據。本研究從中國的實際出發(fā),特別結合暴雨災害這一研究背景,探索影響公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災害信息意愿的因素。"持續(xù)使用意愿"屬于抽象概念的范疇,在眾多的研究方法中,結構方程模型被認為是一種能夠較好測量抽象概念的研究方法。而在結構方程模型兩大分支CB-SEM和PLS-SEM中,PLS-SEM又被證明具有更高的統計功效。因此本研究基于PLS-SEM,以整合性技術接受和使用模型(UTAUT)及期望確認模型(ECM)為理論基礎,確定期望績效、努力績效、社會影響、便利條件、期望確認度、滿意度、持續(xù)使用意愿7個變量,提出了若干假設,構建了結構方程模型,并通過問卷調查的方法搜集了研究數據。在借助SmartPLS 3估計了路徑模型之后,本研究根據相關指標全面評估了測量模型和結構模型的結構方程模型結果。評估結果證明本研究的測量模型具有效度和信度,且結構模型適合于解釋暴雨災害中公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災害信息意愿的影響因素,對持續(xù)使用意愿的解釋力達66.6%。本研究在結論中指出,努力期望、社會影響、便利條件、滿意度均直接正向影響了公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災害信息的意愿,而績效期望和期望確認度則通過滿意度間接正向影響了公眾持續(xù)使用微博獲取災害信息的意愿。期望確認度和滿意度對公眾在暴雨災害中持續(xù)使用微博獲取災害信息的意愿影響的總效果較大。滿意度在持續(xù)使用意愿的形成過程中起到了重要的中介作用。最后,基于研究結論,本研究對政府部門自然災害風險溝通實際工作及智能化自然災害應急預案的制定提供啟示,同時討論了本研究的局限與展望。本研究在理論上發(fā)展了關于信息技術接受的相關理論,在方法上可以對未來基于PLS-SEM的研究提供研究方法層面的借鑒,在實踐上為政府部門提升自然災害風險溝通成效提供了具體的建議,也為大數據背景下政府智能化應急預案制定提供模型依據。
[Abstract]:Modern natural disasters not only directly cause loss of life and property, but also bring many social problems that affect harmony and stability. Risk communication has been widely accepted as an effective way to deal with this situation.Successful risk communication requires the government to attach importance to the public's position as the subject of risk communication when dealing with natural disaster risk, and it needs to resolve the risk by effectively strengthening the interaction with the public.In the current media society, social media is one of the most popular media used by the public. In order to enhance interaction with the public and improve the effectiveness of natural disaster risk communication, it is necessary to combine the media usage habits of users.Consider whether the public will continue to use social media to access disaster information during natural disasters.At the same time, the intelligent management under the background of big data requires a higher analytical and processing capability, which needs to be based on the establishment of a specific analysis model, in order to realize intelligentization in the communication of government natural disaster risks.It is necessary to establish a relevant model to describe the public's continuous use of social media to obtain disaster information, and draw a conclusion through rigorous quantitative research, which can be used as the basis for the government to formulate intelligent natural disaster emergency preparedness plan.This study is based on the reality of China, especially on the background of rainstorm disaster, and explores the factors that affect the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information. "The intention of continuous use "belongs to the category of abstract concept. Among many research methods, the structural equation model is considered to be a kind of research method which can measure the abstract concept well."In the two branches of structural equation model, CB-SEM and PLS-SEM, PLS-SEM has been proved to have higher statistical efficacy.Therefore, based on PLS-SEM, based on the integration technology acceptance and usage model (UTAUTT) and the expectation confirmation model (ECM), this study determines the expected performance, effort performance, social impact, convenience, expected confirmation, satisfaction.By using seven variables of will continuously, several hypotheses are put forward, the structural equation model is constructed, and the research data are collected by questionnaire.After estimating the path model with the aid of SmartPLS 3, the results of the structural equation model of the measurement model and the structural model are comprehensively evaluated according to the relevant indexes.The evaluation results show that the model has validity and reliability, and the structural model is suitable for explaining the influencing factors of the public's ability to use Weibo to obtain disaster information in torrential rain disasters, and the explanatory power to the intention of sustainable use is up to 66.6.In conclusion, this study points out that efforts to expect, social impact, convenience, satisfaction all have a direct positive impact on the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information on a sustainable basis.On the other hand, the degree of performance expectation and expectation confirmation indirectly positively affects the public's willingness to use Weibo to obtain disaster information.The overall effect of expected confirmation and satisfaction on the willingness of the public to use Weibo to obtain disaster information in rainstorm disasters is significant.Satisfaction plays an important role in the process of forming the willingness to use continuously.Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this study provides inspiration for the practical work of natural disaster risk communication and the formulation of intelligent emergency plan for natural disasters, and discusses the limitations and prospects of this study.This research has developed the related theories about the information technology acceptance theoretically, in the method may provide the research method aspect reference to the future research based on PLS-SEM.In practice, it provides specific suggestions for government departments to enhance the effectiveness of natural disaster risk communication, and provides a model basis for the formulation of intelligent emergency plans under the background of big data.
【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G206

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本文編號：1720507