發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-05 20:26

  本文選題：污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目　切入點(diǎn)：特許期　出處：《杭州電子科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：水務(wù)建設(shè)是國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重要基礎(chǔ)性建設(shè),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的過(guò)程中,水污染治理已經(jīng)成為急需面對(duì)的重大問(wèn)題。科學(xué)合理的投資決策是緩解當(dāng)前污水處理行業(yè)嚴(yán)峻局面的有效措施,為了克服污水處理項(xiàng)目傳統(tǒng)投資決策中的政府資金短缺、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)集中等問(wèn)題,“PPP模式”作為公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施多元化治理的一種新模式應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。針對(duì)污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目的投資決策問(wèn)題,本文將Black-Scholes期權(quán)定價(jià)模型應(yīng)用于污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目傳統(tǒng)的NPV投資決策模型中,構(gòu)建了最優(yōu)特許期決策模型,該模型彌補(bǔ)了污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目傳統(tǒng)NPV投資決策模型中價(jià)值計(jì)算模糊的缺點(diǎn),同時(shí),本文創(chuàng)新性的運(yùn)用HP濾波法,通過(guò)運(yùn)行EVIEWS軟件對(duì)連續(xù)多年的污水處理量進(jìn)行濾波分析,精確得出Black-Scholes期權(quán)定價(jià)模型中的重要參數(shù)值波動(dòng)率σ,最后通過(guò)將各參數(shù)值帶入優(yōu)化模型,得出在協(xié)議約定期限內(nèi)剛好達(dá)到投資者期望的投資回報(bào)值時(shí)的特許期,即為污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目投資決策中的最優(yōu)特許期,以輔助政府和社會(huì)投資者更加科學(xué)的做出污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目的投資決策。最后,本文以諸暨市在建污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目為例,通過(guò)運(yùn)行本文所構(gòu)建的優(yōu)化后的決策模型,對(duì)諸暨市污水處理PPP項(xiàng)目的特許期進(jìn)行分析評(píng)價(jià),并對(duì)政府和社會(huì)投資者在對(duì)其他PPP項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行特許協(xié)議投資決策時(shí)提供參考。
[Abstract]:Water affairs construction is an important basic construction in the national economic development. In the process of rapid economic development in China, water pollution control has become an urgent and important problem.Scientific and reasonable investment decision is an effective measure to alleviate the severe situation of sewage treatment industry. In order to overcome the problems of shortage of government funds and concentration of risks in the traditional investment decision of sewage treatment projects,As a new mode of diversified governance of public infrastructure, "PPP mode" came into being.Aiming at the investment decision of PPP project, this paper applies the Black-Scholes option pricing model to the traditional NPV investment decision model of the sewage treatment PPP project, and constructs the optimal concession decision model.This model makes up the shortcoming of fuzzy value calculation in the traditional NPV investment decision model of sewage treatment PPP project. At the same time, this paper innovatively uses HP filter method to filter and analyze the amount of sewage treatment for many years by running EVIEWS software.The volatility 蟽 of the important parameter value in the Black-Scholes option pricing model is accurately obtained. Finally, by bringing the parameter values into the optimization model, the concession period is obtained when the investment return value of the investor is exactly reached within the agreed period.That is, the optimal concession period in the investment decision of sewage treatment PPP project, in order to assist the government and social investors to make more scientific investment decision of sewage treatment PPP project.Finally, taking the PPP project under construction in Zhuji city as an example, this paper analyzes and evaluates the concession period of Zhuji sewage treatment PPP project by running the optimized decision-making model constructed in this paper.It also provides reference for government and social investors to make investment decision of concession agreement for other PPP projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X703;F283

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本文編號(hào)：1716327