發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-14 18:22

  本文選題：預(yù)備立憲 + 博弈論　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：“預(yù)備立憲”在中國(guó)憲政改革的歷史上占有重要的一席,可以說(shuō)它與清政府的命運(yùn)息息相關(guān),正是它的重要性也決定了這次改革的坎坷性與不確定性。從前期的準(zhǔn)備到中期的實(shí)施,直至后期的收?qǐng)?這一過(guò)程無(wú)不充滿了派系斗爭(zhēng)的影子,或出于公論,或?yàn)橹\得私利,對(duì)于那些別有用心的政客而言,“預(yù)備立憲”恰恰成為其掩飾自己野心最好的幌子。這場(chǎng)改革本身就充滿了復(fù)雜性,頑固派和立憲派關(guān)于在中國(guó)當(dāng)時(shí)的歷史條件下要不要立憲的爭(zhēng)論,大有你死我活的態(tài)勢(shì),從某一方面來(lái)說(shuō),正應(yīng)和了博弈論中的零和博弈。 文章的第一部分就是以零和博弈的四種分布情況來(lái)分析頑固派和立憲派做出選擇的依據(jù),從而為王朝的取向偏好提供了理論基礎(chǔ)。第二部分以博弈論之中的嚴(yán)格從優(yōu)戰(zhàn)略為出發(fā)點(diǎn),通過(guò)對(duì)慈禧選擇的分析,指出“預(yù)備立憲”不失為一種上上策,既可以滿足立憲派和國(guó)內(nèi)要求改革的呼聲,又不至于讓頑固派太過(guò)于孤立,憲政雖然難產(chǎn),但最終在蹣跚中也塵埃落定。 然而,在博弈論中被稱為“自然”的慈禧太后的離世,讓原本就艱難前行的憲政改革一下子找不到前進(jìn)的方向,蟄伏已久的派系矛盾再次不可抑制地爆發(fā)了,只不過(guò)依然打的是“立憲”的旗號(hào),由此拉開了以載灃為首的晚清少壯派和以袁世凱為首的袁氏集團(tuán)對(duì)晚清權(quán)力的最后博弈。 文章第三部分側(cè)重于這兩派對(duì)權(quán)力爭(zhēng)奪的描寫,此時(shí)的立憲意味已經(jīng)不像開始時(shí)那樣濃重,立憲真正開始淪為一種工具,晚清少壯派正是因?yàn)闊o(wú)法應(yīng)對(duì)立憲這一局面而最終受到致命一擊,把自己到手的權(quán)力拱手相讓。這一部分以博弈論中的“智豬博弈”為例,從這一案例中來(lái)進(jìn)一步分析刻畫袁世凱是如何由小變大,由弱變強(qiáng),并最終將權(quán)力收入囊中。文章通過(guò)將博弈論融入到“預(yù)備立憲”這一過(guò)程中來(lái)展示這一改革的產(chǎn)牛,發(fā)展和天亡。
[Abstract]:The "preparation for constitutionalism" occupies an important seat in the history of constitutional reform in China. It can be said that it is closely related to the fate of the Qing government, and it is its importance that also determines the bumpy and uncertain nature of this reform.From early preparation to implementation in the medium to the end of the period, this process is full of factional struggles, either out of public opinion or for private gain, for politicians with ulterior motives,The preparation for constitutionalism is the best cover for his ambition.The reform itself is full of complexity, die-hards and constitutionalists on whether to establish the constitution under the historical conditions of China, there is a situation of life and death, from a certain aspect, is responding to the game theory in the zero-sum game.The first part of this paper is to analyze the basis of the choice of die-hards and constitutionalists based on the four distributions of zero-sum game, thus providing a theoretical basis for the preference of dynasty orientation.In the second part, starting from the strict and superior strategy in game theory, through the analysis of Cixi's choice, the author points out that "preparing for constitutionalism" is the best policy, which can satisfy the demands of constitutionalism and domestic demands for reform.Without leaving the die-hards too isolated, constitutionalism, though difficult, ended up stumbling.However, the death of Empress Dowager Cixi, who is known as "nature" in game theory, made the constitutional reform, which was already struggling ahead, suddenly unable to find the way forward, and the long-dormant factional contradictions broke out irreversibly again.However, it is still playing the banner of "constitutionalism", thus opening the final game of the late Qing Dynasty, led by Zaifeng and Yuan's Group, headed by Yuan Shikai, on the power of the late Qing Dynasty.The third part of the article focuses on the description of the power struggle between the two parties. At this time, the constitutional meaning is not as strong as it was at the beginning, and the constitution really began to become a tool.Because of their inability to cope with the constitutionalism in the late Qing Dynasty, the Shaozang school was finally hit with a fatal blow and ceded its power.This part takes the game theory as an example to further analyze and depict how Yuan Shikai changed from small to large, from weak to strong, and finally took power into the bag.By integrating game theory into the process of "preparing constitution", this paper demonstrates the cattle production, development and death of the reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：K257

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