發(fā)布時間：2024-07-06 13:51

　　氣候變化正在影響大部分世界的地區(qū)。研究表明,氣候變化對山區(qū)的自然和經濟社會系統(tǒng)有顯著影響。在農民的生計領域,氣候變化的影響主要表現(xiàn)在對生計的資源(水源、土地、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)、基礎設施、健康等等)和生計的類型(如農業(yè)、林業(yè)、漁業(yè)、畜牧業(yè)、服務業(yè)、工業(yè)等等)等方面的影響。越南是受氣候變化影響最大的國家之一。越南的大部分少數民族生活在北方山區(qū),生計不佳,經濟條件差,交通不方便。特別是極端天氣事件成為對農民生計的嚴重威脅。本研究旨在考察氣候變化對越南西北地區(qū)農戶的生活脆弱性及對農戶凈收入的經濟影響。本研究根據這些變化,確定了農民對氣候變化的看法及其農業(yè)實踐中采取的適應措施。為了獲取影響農民對氣候變化意識及其適應性選擇的因素,通過家庭調查,農民講習班,FDG,VHLSS(GSO2012),水文氣象預報數據等收集了主要和次要數據,并選取越南西北山區(qū)三個典型的農業(yè)和自然資源依賴型公社,測試生活脆弱性指數(LVI),LVI-IPCC和生計效應指數(LEI);利用Ricardian的方法進行了分析越南西北地區(qū)氣候變化對農業(yè)的影響;運用Logit模型探索農民對氣候變化的意識,運用binary logistics...

【文章頁數】：133 頁

【學位級別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
ABSTRACT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
    1.1. Research background
    1.2. Research Objectives
    1.3. Key Questions
    1.4 Thesis Structure
CHAPTER 2: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
    2.1. Definition and Concepts of Climate change and livelihood
    2.2. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
    2.3. Approaches to climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessment
    2.4 Livelihood Vulnerability to climate change
    2.5. Economic impact of climate change assessment
        2.5.1 Economy-wide models
        2.5.2. Partial equilibrium models
    2.6 Perception to climate change
    2.7. Coping and adaptation to climate change
CHAPTER 3: STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH DESIGN
    3.1. Description of the Study area
        3.1.1. Location of the study area
        3.1.2. Biophysical conditions
        3.1.3. Socio-economic characteristic
        3.1.4. Agricultural produce
    3.2. An overview of climate change in Northwestern Vietnam
    3.3. Research Design
CHAPTER 4. LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE INNORTHWESTERN VIETNAM
    4.1. Introduction
    4.2. Methodology
        4.2.1 Sampling and data collection
        4.2.2. Data analysis
        4.2.4. Calculating the LEI
    4.3. Results
    4.4. Discussion
CHAPTER 5: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER’SCROP PRODUCTION IN NORTHWEST VIETNAM: A RICARDIAN APPROACH
    5.1. Introduction
    5.2. Methodology
    5.3. Data collection
    5.4. Results
        5.4.1. Regression estimates
        5.4.2. Marginal Impacts of Climate on Agricultural Revenue and Elasticity
        5.4.3. Forecasts of Climate Impacts on Agriculture in Northwest Vietnam
    5.5. Discussion
CHAPTER 6: FARMERS’ PERCEPTIONS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ONLIVELIHOODS IN THE NORTHWEST REGION OF VIETNAM
    6.1. Introduction
    6.2. Conceptual framework and methodology
        6.2.1. Model specification
        6.2.2. Marginal effects and partial elasticities
        6.2.3. Explanatory variables
        6.2.4 Sampling and data collection
    6.3. Results and discussions
        6.3.1. Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Changes
        6.3.2. Farmers’ Adaptation Analysis
CHAPTER 7: SUMMARY AND SOME POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
    7.1. Summary of research
        7.1.1. Vulnerability of farm household to climate change
        7.1.2. The economic impact of climate change on household revenue
        7.1.3. Farmers perception and adaptation to climate change
    7.2. Policy implications, limitations and future research
        7.2.1. Policy implications
        7.2.2. Thesis limitations and future research
APPENDIX A. Questionnaire for Household Survey (English version)
APPENDIX B: Marginal effect and elasticity calculations
APPENDIX C: Supplement Table
REFERENCES
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