本文關(guān)鍵詞：福建沿海年平均海平面年際變化特征、預(yù)測(cè)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估　出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 海平面 上升趨勢(shì) 預(yù)測(cè)

【摘要】：1）本文利用福建沿海4個(gè)驗(yàn)潮站實(shí)測(cè)潮位資料，在分析實(shí)測(cè)資料變化趨勢(shì)的基礎(chǔ)上，采用譜分析的方法分析年平均海平面的變化趨勢(shì)，得到了四個(gè)站年平均海平面變化模型，并對(duì)未來(lái)50年福建沿海的海平面上升趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。近幾十年來(lái)福建沿海海平面呈上升趨勢(shì)，平均上升速度為0.17cm/a，非線性變化中主要低頻振動(dòng)周期為8～17a，主要高頻振動(dòng)周期為2a。預(yù)計(jì)2006～2056年的上升平均速率為0.17cm/a，2056年福建沿海各站海平面相對(duì)于2005年海平面平均增加12cm，廈門上升16.9cm，東山站預(yù)計(jì)上升最小為6.4cm。福建沿海未來(lái)50年平均上升速率與實(shí)測(cè)的速率變化不大，年平均海平面沒有明顯加速上升的趨勢(shì)。根據(jù)福建海平面變化影響特點(diǎn)，建議采取以下措施應(yīng)對(duì)：（1）針對(duì)福建沿海地質(zhì)特點(diǎn)，加強(qiáng)地面沉降監(jiān)測(cè)，控制建筑物高度，有效減小地面沉降幅度，減少海平面上升影響范圍，保證沿海社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。（2）9～11月為福建沿海臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)暴潮高發(fā)期，也是福建沿海季節(jié)性高海平面期，天文大潮期，易發(fā)生風(fēng)暴增水、季節(jié)性高海平面和天文大潮三者疊加的情況，形成災(zāi)害性高潮位，相關(guān)部門應(yīng)特別關(guān)注。（3）海平面上升的累積效應(yīng)加大海水入侵與土壤鹽漬化的距離和面積，福建應(yīng)充分利用降水相對(duì)充沛的優(yōu)勢(shì)，合理調(diào)配水資源，，遏制海水入侵與土壤鹽漬化的擴(kuò)大趨勢(shì)。（4）落實(shí)《海洋災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排查和區(qū)劃工作方案》要求，科學(xué)評(píng)估福建沿海地區(qū)海平面上升的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，對(duì)福建沿海地區(qū)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃，為沿海地區(qū)發(fā)展規(guī)劃、海洋防災(zāi)減災(zāi)、工程設(shè)計(jì)及選址等提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。本文通過(guò)歷史風(fēng)暴潮、高潮位等海洋基本環(huán)境信息和災(zāi)害情況調(diào)查分析，掌握廈門沿海風(fēng)暴潮等海洋災(zāi)害的基本規(guī)律特征，結(jié)合廈門社會(huì)綜合因素、地理高程信息等資料，確定海洋災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)和社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口等重點(diǎn)保護(hù)區(qū)域（目標(biāo)），開展廈門沿海的海平面上升風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)查評(píng)估。
[Abstract]:1) based on the measured tidal level data of four tidal stations in Fujian coastal area, the variation trend of the annual mean sea level is analyzed by spectral analysis method on the basis of analyzing the variation trend of measured data. The annual mean sea level change model of four stations is obtained, and the rising trend of sea level in Fujian coastal area in the next 50 years is predicted. In recent decades, the sea level in Fujian coastal area is on the rise trend. The average rising velocity is 0.17 cm / a, and the main low-frequency vibration period in nonlinear variation is 817 years. The main high frequency vibration period is 2 a. The average rate of increase from 2006 to 2056 is estimated to be 0.17 cm / a. In 2056, the mean sea level of Fujian coastal stations increased by 12 cm compared with 2005, and that in Xiamen increased 16. 9 cm. Dongshan station is expected to increase at the minimum of 6.4 cm. The average rising rate of Fujian coastal area in the next 50 years has little change with the measured rate. According to the influence characteristics of sea level change in Fujian, the following measures should be taken to deal with the geological characteristics of Fujian coastal area and strengthen the monitoring of land subsidence. Controlling the height of buildings, effectively reducing the extent of land subsidence, reducing the influence of sea level rise, and ensuring the sustainable development of coastal society and economy from 9 to November is the period of high typhoon storm surge in Fujian coastal area. It is also the situation of seasonal high sea level period, astronomical spring tide period, storm increasing water, seasonal high sea level and astronomical spring tide superposing, forming disaster climax. Relevant departments should pay special attention to the cumulative effect of sea level rise to increase the distance and area between seawater intrusion and soil salinization. Fujian should make full use of the relative abundant advantages of precipitation to rationally allocate water resources. To control the trend of sea intrusion and soil salinization. 4) to carry out the work plan of Marine disaster risk investigation and regionalization, and to scientifically assess the potential risk of sea level rise in coastal areas of Fujian Province. In order to provide scientific basis for coastal area development planning, marine disaster prevention and mitigation, engineering design and site selection, this paper adopts historical storm surge. To investigate and analyze the basic environmental information and disaster situation of the sea, such as high tide level, to grasp the basic characteristics of the sea disasters such as storm surge along the Xiamen coast, and to combine the comprehensive factors of Xiamen society and the information of geographical elevation, and so on. Determine marine disaster risk areas, social, economic, population and other key areas of protection (target, carry out coastal sea level rise risk assessment of Xiamen.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P731.23

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