發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-11 17:25

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：北半球海冰變化及其與氣候要素的關(guān)系　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 海冰密集度 海冰外緣線 海冰面積 多年冰和季節(jié)冰 氣候要素

【摘要】：在過去幾十年,北極地區(qū)的海冰大量減少,海冰覆蓋面積的年平均下降速度不斷加快,夏季9月最小海冰外緣線面積在2007和2012年先后創(chuàng)下有衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)記錄以來的最小值。北極海冰密集度總體下降,夏季極點(diǎn)附近出現(xiàn)大面積海冰融池。北極海冰的冰齡也在逐漸減小,多年冰覆蓋面積下降,季節(jié)性海冰覆蓋范圍增加,海冰的季節(jié)性變化加劇。海冰是北極海洋系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,同時(shí)在全球氣候系統(tǒng)中也扮演著極其重要的角色,它影響著太陽輻射以及熱量和動(dòng)能在海洋和大氣之間的交換,在不同的時(shí)間和空間尺度上對(duì)海洋和大氣產(chǎn)生相互作用。北極海冰變化研究對(duì)于全球氣候、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)以及人類活動(dòng)意義重大。 本文采用美國雪冰數(shù)據(jù)中心1979-2013年的SMMR、SSMI和SSMIS逐日海冰密集度產(chǎn)品,NCEP/NCAR再分析資料中的氣溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)以及美國氣象預(yù)報(bào)中心提供的AO、NAO和ENSO指數(shù),分析月平均、多年月平均、季節(jié)平均和年平均時(shí)間尺度上,北半球地區(qū)海冰密集度、海冰外緣線面積以及海冰面積的變化情況,討論35年間北半球多年冰和季節(jié)冰的變化趨勢(shì)。同時(shí),初步探討了北半球海冰變化特征與各氣候要素的關(guān)系。 首先,35年來北半球地區(qū)海冰密集度整體不斷下降。特別是2007至2012年間,海冰密集度變化尤為明顯,高值區(qū)面積大大縮小,海冰密集度低值區(qū)延伸到極點(diǎn)附近。北半球海冰密集度在3月達(dá)到最大值,9月出現(xiàn)最小值,海冰密集度在低緯和高緯之間表現(xiàn)出周期性的時(shí)空差異。海冰有規(guī)律的生長和消融過程,在季節(jié)平均和多年月平均尺度上表現(xiàn)明顯。 其次,整個(gè)北半球的海冰外緣線面積和海冰面積也在減小,年平均下降速度分別為-55.5×106km2.a-1和-53.0×106km2.a-1,二者在不同時(shí)間尺度上的變化趨勢(shì)基本一致,只是海冰面積相對(duì)海冰外緣線面積總體偏小。北半球多年冰主要分布在北冰洋核心區(qū),35年來覆蓋范圍不斷縮小,2007年至今的變化最為明顯。隨著多年冰面積的減少,季節(jié)性海冰的覆蓋面積逐漸占領(lǐng)北冰洋核心區(qū)大部分海域。 再次,整個(gè)北半球地區(qū)以及9個(gè)分海區(qū)海冰外緣線面積、海冰面積、多年冰和季節(jié)冰的變化特征各不相同。此外,各海區(qū)的海冰面積與對(duì)應(yīng)海冰外緣線面積的變化趨勢(shì)也有一定差異。通過比較發(fā)現(xiàn),對(duì)整個(gè)北半球海冰的變化貢獻(xiàn)率最大的海域主要有北冰洋核心區(qū)、喀拉海和巴倫支海,它們的海冰變化情況直接影響到整個(gè)北半球地區(qū)海冰的總體變化特征。 最后,北半球年平均海冰外緣線面積和海冰面積與北半球年平均氣溫的相關(guān)系數(shù)R都高達(dá)-0.94，二者與氣溫有很強(qiáng)的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。再將海冰外緣線面積和海冰面積與冬季標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化AO和NAO指數(shù)做相關(guān)分析,相關(guān)性顯著的海域包括圣勞倫斯灣、巴芬灣／拉布拉多海和哈德孫灣。年平均海冰外緣線面積和海冰面積與冬季標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化AO指數(shù)的相關(guān)系數(shù)通過95%的置信檢驗(yàn),與NAO指數(shù)的相關(guān)系數(shù)通過99%的置信檢驗(yàn)。ENSO與年平均海冰外緣線面積之間的相關(guān)性分析得出,總體上ENSO的El Nino(暖事件)年期間,海冰外緣線面積增加；而在ENSO的La Nina(冷事件)年,則出現(xiàn)海冰外緣線面積減少的現(xiàn)象。
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, a substantial reduction in Arctic sea ice, sea ice cover the average annual rate of decline is accelerating, the September summer minimum sea ice edge area in 2007 and 2012 has hit a minimum value of the satellite data record. Arctic sea ice concentration decreased and the large area of sea ice melting occurs near the pole. The Arctic summer ice ice age is gradually reduced, decreased years of ice cover, seasonal sea ice coverage increased, increasing the seasonal variation of sea ice, sea ice is an important part of the Arctic Ocean system, at the same time in the global climate system also plays a very important role, it affects the solar radiation and heat and energy exchange in between the ocean and the atmosphere, in different time and space scale interaction of Oceanic and atmospheric research. Arctic sea ice changes to the global climate and ecosystem And human activities are of great significance.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center 1979-2013 years of SMMR, SSMI and SSMIS daily sea ice concentration, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and temperature data provided the weather forecast center of AO, NAO and ENSO index, based on the monthly mean, mean monthly, seasonal and annual average time scale, the northern hemisphere sea ice of the sea ice edge area and the change of sea ice area, discuss the change trend of 35 years of the northern hemisphere ice and ice season. At the same time, discussed the relationship characteristics of sea ice changes in the northern hemisphere and climatic factors.
First of all, in 35 years the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration overall declining. Especially in the 2007 to 2012 years, sea ice concentration change is obvious, the high value area greatly reduced sea ice concentration low value area extends to near the pole. The northern hemisphere sea ice concentration in March reached the maximum value, the minimum value of sea ice in September. Dispersion between low and high latitude areas showed spatial differences. Regular periodic sea ice growth and melting process, the seasonal and monthly mean scale performance significantly.
Secondly, the sea ice edge area and sea ice area in the northern hemisphere are reduced, average annual rate of decline was -55.5 * 106km2.a-1 and -53.0 * 106km2.a-1, the changes at different time scales. The trend of the two are basically the same, only the sea ice area relative to the sea ice edge area is too small. The northern hemisphere is mainly distributed in the Arctic ice for many years the core area of 35 years of coverage is shrinking, the most obvious change since 2007. With the decrease of multiyear ice area, covering an area of seasonal sea ice gradually occupied the core area of the Arctic Ocean most waters.
Again, the entire northern hemisphere and 9 sub sea ice edge area, sea ice, ice ice and seasonal variation characteristics for each. In addition, the change trend of the sea ice area and the corresponding sea ice edge area also have certain differences. By comparison, the change of the northern hemisphere sea ice contribution the maximum rate of the main core area of the Arctic Ocean sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea ice conditions, which directly affects the overall features of the sea areas of the northern hemisphere.
Finally, the northern hemisphere average sea ice edge area and the northern hemisphere sea ice area and the average annual temperature and the correlation coefficient R is as high as two -0.94, there is a strong negative correlation with temperature. The correlation analysis of the sea ice edge area and sea ice area in winter and standardized AO and NAO index, significant correlation including the waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea and Hudson Bay. The correlation coefficient of the annual average sea ice edge area and sea ice area in winter and standardization of AO index by 95% confidence test, correlation coefficient and NAO index by confidence seized 99% experimental correlation between.ENSO and the annual average sea ice edge area analysis in general, ENSO El Nino (warm events) during the period, the sea ice edge area increased; and in the ENSO La Nina (cold event), appeared in the sea ice edge area to reduce the phenomenon.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P731.15;P732

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