W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的風險分析及控制研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-22 07:08
【摘要】：當今社會一切都是項目,工程項目建設(shè)對全社會的發(fā)展有著關(guān)鍵性的促進作用。然而,在全球經(jīng)濟、科技迅猛發(fā)展的情形下,市場競爭越來越隨之激烈,再加上工程建設(shè)項目自身的投資大、周期長、參與主體多、組織關(guān)系復(fù)雜等諸多特點,工程建設(shè)項目所面臨的不確定因素也越來越多,從而也就會面對越來越多的風險和風險損失,因而,對工程建設(shè)項目的風險分析及其控制研究成為近年來學(xué)界和實踐部門所關(guān)注的重要課題之一�；诖丝紤],文章即以W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目為研究對象,旨在通過對這一具體工程項目風險的基本分析,試圖尋找到工程建設(shè)項目在風險控制策略上的基本共性,從而為風險管理者的決策提供有價值的借鑒和參考,并進一步推動項目風險管理的研究拓展。具體而言,本研究的目的和總體思路為:運用項目風險管理的相關(guān)理論知識,從W市公路服務(wù)中心工程項目的實踐出發(fā),對該項目進行可行性分析、風險因素識別,并利用專家評判和模糊綜合評價等研究方法,對項目整體的風險水平進行定量評估和風險定級,并最終提出風險控制策略。這主要包括四大方面:第一,W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的可行性分析。也即是從技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟、社會三大角度來論證W市公路服務(wù)中心工程項目的建設(shè)可行性。一是從實施背景、總體目標、各個子系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計方案、參數(shù)條件等方面來闡述該項目建設(shè)的技術(shù)實現(xiàn)可行性;二是利用"成本—效益"分析法,對W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目進行投資估算,從直接經(jīng)濟效益、間接經(jīng)濟效益以及社會效益等方面論證了這一項目的經(jīng)濟和社會可行性。第二,W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的風險因素的識別及其內(nèi)在機理分析。這主要是在可行性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的風險因素進行有效識別,通過建立W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的風險清單,分析出可能的存在風險,并分析這些風險因素產(chǎn)生的原因及其內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)。第三,W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的風險評估分析。這主要是通過構(gòu)建W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目風險評估體系,利用AHP層次分析法和模糊評價法,對該項目的風險水平進行了定量分析和風險定級,旨在為風險控制策略的提出提供依據(jù)。第四,W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的風險控制策略分析。這是風險因素的問題解決階段,在風險識別和風險評估之后,從風險回避、風險轉(zhuǎn)移、風險減輕、風險接受四大方面闡釋了工程項目風險控制的一般性策略,并針對W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目各類不同的風險因素,提出了具體的風險減輕的應(yīng)對策略,這便可作為風險應(yīng)對規(guī)劃過程的主要依據(jù),保障W市公路服務(wù)中心工程建設(shè)項目的順利實施。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, everything is a project, and the construction of engineering project plays a key role in promoting the development of the whole society. However, with the rapid development of the global economy and the rapid development of science and technology, the market competition is becoming more and more intense. In addition, the construction projects themselves have a large investment, a long period, a large number of participants, complex organizational relationships, and so on. Engineering construction projects are facing more and more uncertain factors, so they will face more and more risks and risk losses. The research on risk analysis and control of engineering construction projects has become one of the most important topics in the academic and practical fields in recent years. Based on this consideration, this paper takes the construction project of road service center of W city as the research object, aims at finding the basic commonness of the risk control strategy of the project through the basic analysis of the risk of this concrete project. Thus, it can provide valuable reference for risk managers to make decisions, and further promote the research and development of project risk management. Specifically, the purpose and the overall idea of this study are as follows: using the relevant theoretical knowledge of project risk management, starting from the practice of the project of road service center in W city, the feasibility analysis and risk factor identification of the project are carried out. Using the methods of expert evaluation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the risk level of the whole project is quantitatively evaluated and classified, and the risk control strategy is put forward. This mainly includes four aspects: first, the feasibility analysis of the construction project of W City Highway Service Center. In other words, the construction feasibility of road service center project of W city is demonstrated from three angles of technology, economy and society. The first is from the implementation background, the overall goal, each subsystem design scheme, the parameter condition and so on aspect and so on elaborated this project construction technical realization feasibility; The second is to estimate the investment of highway service center project in W city by using the method of cost-benefit analysis, and prove the economic and social feasibility of the project from the aspects of direct economic benefit, indirect economic benefit and social benefit. Second, the identification of risk factors and the analysis of internal mechanism of road service center construction project in W city. On the basis of feasibility analysis, this paper effectively identifies the risk factors of the construction project of the highway service center of W city, and analyzes the possible risks by establishing the risk list of the construction project of the highway service center of W city. And analyze the causes of these risk factors and their internal relationship. Third, the risk assessment analysis of the construction project of road service center in W city. This is mainly through constructing the risk assessment system of the construction project of road service center of W city, using AHP analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the risk level of the project is quantitatively analyzed and classified. The purpose of this paper is to provide the basis for putting forward the risk control strategy. Fourth, the risk control strategy analysis of road service center project in W city. This is the problem solving stage of risk factors. After risk identification and risk assessment, the general strategy of project risk control is explained from four aspects: risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk mitigation and risk acceptance. According to the different risk factors of road service center construction project in W city, this paper puts forward specific risk mitigation strategies, which can be used as the main basis of risk response planning process. To ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Road Service Center in W City.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U415.1
本文編號：2348449
[Abstract]:Nowadays, everything is a project, and the construction of engineering project plays a key role in promoting the development of the whole society. However, with the rapid development of the global economy and the rapid development of science and technology, the market competition is becoming more and more intense. In addition, the construction projects themselves have a large investment, a long period, a large number of participants, complex organizational relationships, and so on. Engineering construction projects are facing more and more uncertain factors, so they will face more and more risks and risk losses. The research on risk analysis and control of engineering construction projects has become one of the most important topics in the academic and practical fields in recent years. Based on this consideration, this paper takes the construction project of road service center of W city as the research object, aims at finding the basic commonness of the risk control strategy of the project through the basic analysis of the risk of this concrete project. Thus, it can provide valuable reference for risk managers to make decisions, and further promote the research and development of project risk management. Specifically, the purpose and the overall idea of this study are as follows: using the relevant theoretical knowledge of project risk management, starting from the practice of the project of road service center in W city, the feasibility analysis and risk factor identification of the project are carried out. Using the methods of expert evaluation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the risk level of the whole project is quantitatively evaluated and classified, and the risk control strategy is put forward. This mainly includes four aspects: first, the feasibility analysis of the construction project of W City Highway Service Center. In other words, the construction feasibility of road service center project of W city is demonstrated from three angles of technology, economy and society. The first is from the implementation background, the overall goal, each subsystem design scheme, the parameter condition and so on aspect and so on elaborated this project construction technical realization feasibility; The second is to estimate the investment of highway service center project in W city by using the method of cost-benefit analysis, and prove the economic and social feasibility of the project from the aspects of direct economic benefit, indirect economic benefit and social benefit. Second, the identification of risk factors and the analysis of internal mechanism of road service center construction project in W city. On the basis of feasibility analysis, this paper effectively identifies the risk factors of the construction project of the highway service center of W city, and analyzes the possible risks by establishing the risk list of the construction project of the highway service center of W city. And analyze the causes of these risk factors and their internal relationship. Third, the risk assessment analysis of the construction project of road service center in W city. This is mainly through constructing the risk assessment system of the construction project of road service center of W city, using AHP analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the risk level of the project is quantitatively analyzed and classified. The purpose of this paper is to provide the basis for putting forward the risk control strategy. Fourth, the risk control strategy analysis of road service center project in W city. This is the problem solving stage of risk factors. After risk identification and risk assessment, the general strategy of project risk control is explained from four aspects: risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk mitigation and risk acceptance. According to the different risk factors of road service center construction project in W city, this paper puts forward specific risk mitigation strategies, which can be used as the main basis of risk response planning process. To ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Road Service Center in W City.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U415.1
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