發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-13 22:18

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：貴州省能源消費(fèi)、碳排放量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)研究　出處：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貴州省 能源 碳排放 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)

【摘要】：從工業(yè)革命開(kāi)始之后的200多年以來(lái),人們?cè)谙硎芙?jīng)濟(jì)不斷高速發(fā)展帶來(lái)的豐碩成果的同時(shí),也對(duì)自然資源和生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了嚴(yán)重破壞。我國(guó)是世界上能源消費(fèi)規(guī)模最大的國(guó)家之一,二氧化碳等溫室氣體的排放規(guī)模更是已經(jīng)達(dá)到世界之最,如何尋求低碳環(huán)保的發(fā)展方式,實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境相協(xié)調(diào)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,已經(jīng)成為擺在我們面前的一個(gè)亟待解決的課題。貴州省是我國(guó)西南地區(qū)一個(gè)內(nèi)陸省份,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平較低,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)業(yè)也亟待優(yōu)化,存在不少高污染高耗能高排放的“三高”企業(yè),給當(dāng)?shù)氐纳鷳B(tài)環(huán)境帶來(lái)不同程度的破壞。本文將具體分析貴州省近年來(lái)能源消費(fèi)、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系和影響因素,為貴州省實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的相關(guān)決策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 本文在總結(jié)了可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論和國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)領(lǐng)域研究文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,首先對(duì)貴州省的能源消費(fèi)、碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在過(guò)去十幾年中的演變情況做出較為詳細(xì)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,接著用線性回歸方程模擬出它們之間具體的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,并對(duì)未來(lái)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)貴州省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和能源消費(fèi)呈正相關(guān),和碳排放呈負(fù)相關(guān),在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和能源消費(fèi)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳排放之間都存在著雙向因果關(guān)系,而且能源EKC曲線和碳排放EKC曲線擬合結(jié)果都符合倒“U”形狀,其拐點(diǎn)將分別在2034年和2037年到達(dá)。不過(guò)在研究期內(nèi),貴州省剔除了價(jià)格因素的的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度總體上要慢于能源消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)速度和碳排放增長(zhǎng)速度,大部分時(shí)間經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和能源消費(fèi)與碳排放都處于掛鉤狀態(tài),說(shuō)明貴州省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展給資源和環(huán)境都帶來(lái)巨大的壓力。本文最后用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法和LMD指數(shù)分解法分析出貴州省能源消費(fèi)和碳排放的主要影響因素,并用因子分析法綜合評(píng)價(jià)了貴州省自2000年以來(lái)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平,發(fā)現(xiàn)貴州省能源消費(fèi)最大影響因素是高能耗行業(yè),碳排放的最大影響因素是能源的使用效率,說(shuō)明貴州省高能耗行業(yè)的發(fā)展是能源消費(fèi)量逐年上升的最大推力,而能源使用效率的提高是碳排放強(qiáng)度逐漸下降的主要原因。另外貴州省近年來(lái)可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平基本上一直處于上升態(tài)勢(shì),說(shuō)明貴州省整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展是良好穩(wěn)定的。 在理論和實(shí)證研究結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文最后給出了如下建議：第一,提高產(chǎn)業(yè)層次,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。第二,開(kāi)發(fā)新能源,優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)。第三,保證城市綠化面積,同時(shí)在各地加大植樹(shù)造林的力度。第四,提倡低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和生活方式,通過(guò)廣泛宣傳提高民眾環(huán)境保護(hù)意識(shí)。此外,由于貴州省在能源EKC曲線和碳排放EKC曲線都處于左半段,說(shuō)明在未來(lái)一個(gè)階段的發(fā)展能源和環(huán)境的壓力都會(huì)不斷增大,因此貴州省要加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型和生產(chǎn)技術(shù)的提高,貫徹實(shí)施節(jié)能減排政策,促使上述兩個(gè)拐點(diǎn)都提前到來(lái)。
[Abstract]:From the beginning of the industrial revolution 200 years, people are enjoying the benefits brought the rapid development of economy at the same time, also caused serious damage to the ecological environment and natural resources. China's energy consumption scale is one of the largest countries in the world, carbon dioxide emissions is bigger has reached the world. How to seek the way of development, low carbon environmental protection to achieve sustainable development of economic, social and ecological environment, has become an urgent task in front of us. Guizhou province is China's southwestern region of an inland province, the low level of economic development, industrial structure industry also needs to be optimized, there are many high pollution and high energy consumption and high emission of the "three high", to the local ecological environment bring different degrees of damage. This paper analyzes the Guizhou Province in recent years, energy consumption and carbon emissions. The internal relations and influencing factors of economic growth provide scientific basis for Guizhou province to realize the relevant decision-making of the coordinated development of economy, society and the ecological environment.
Based on the theory of sustainable development and the domestic and foreign relevant research in the field of literature, firstly, the energy consumption of Guizhou Province, made a detailed statistical analysis of carbon emissions and economic growth in the past ten years of evolution, then use linear regression equation to simulate some inherent relationships between them, and predict the future trend of development. The results showed that Guizhou Province Economic Growth and energy consumption and carbon emissions were positively correlated, negatively related, there is a two-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, economic growth and carbon emissions, and the fitting results of EKC curve and energy carbon emissions are in line with the EKC curve inverted "U" shape, the inflection point will arrive in 2034 and 2037 respectively. However, in the study period, Guizhou Province, excluding the price factor of the actual economic growth rate is slower than the overall energy consumption of Fei Zeng Long growth rate and carbon emission rate, most of the time, economic growth and energy consumption and carbon emissions are linked to state that the economic development of Guizhou province has brought enormous pressure to resources and environment. The grey correlation analysis method and LMD index decomposition method to analyze the main influencing factors of Guizhou Province, energy consumption and carbon emissions by at the end of this paper. And using the factor analysis method in comprehensive evaluation of the level of sustainable development in Guizhou province since 2000, found that the factors of energy consumption in Guizhou province is the biggest influence of high energy consumption industries, the factors that affect carbon emissions is the use of energy efficiency, indicating the development of Guizhou province energy industry is the biggest thrust energy consumption increased year by year, and the energy the use efficiency is the main reason of carbon emission intensity decreased gradually. In addition, the level of sustainable development in Guizhou Province in recent years basically been in a rising trend, said The overall economic and social development of Guizhou province is good and stable.
Based on the results of theoretical and empirical research, this paper finally gives the following suggestions: first, to improve the level of industry, optimize the industrial structure. In second, the development of new energy, optimizing energy structure. Third, to ensure the city greening area, and increase afforestation efforts in the country. Fourth, advocate low carbon economy and way of life, improve the public awareness of environmental protection through extensive publicity. In addition, the Guizhou province in the energy of EKC curve and EKC curve of carbon emissions in the left half, indicating the development of energy and environment in the next stage of the pressure will continue to increase, therefore, Guizhou province should accelerate the transformation of industrial structure and the improvement of production technology, the implementation of energy saving the emission reduction policy, two inflection points are ahead.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F206;F205;F127

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