發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-09 09:43

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：湖北省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響分析　出處：《湖北大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn) 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)

【摘要】：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間往往存在著比較密切的關(guān)系,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)在一定程度上能夠推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng),而經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的不斷增長(zhǎng)也要求產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生相應(yīng)的變化。目前,我國(guó)大部分地區(qū)都處于經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的階段,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)勢(shì)必將成為各地維持經(jīng)濟(jì)高增速的措施之一。但對(duì)于不同的地區(qū),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系可能并不一樣。那么,對(duì)于湖北省來(lái)說(shuō),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是否能夠?qū)��?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生影響?產(chǎn)生著怎樣的影響?這些正是本文試圖探究的問(wèn)題。 本文擬通過(guò)對(duì)湖北省1978—2011年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析,來(lái)探究湖北省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響作用。全文除緒論外分為五大部分,首先對(duì)湖北省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了描述分析。其次,通過(guò)定性分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)造成影響的作用機(jī)制,發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)主要從兩個(gè)方面影響經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長(zhǎng)：①產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)通過(guò)促進(jìn)資源的有效配置,推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長(zhǎng)；②產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)通過(guò)主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的更替,推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長(zhǎng)。在此理論依據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,建立計(jì)量模型對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果表明：在湖北省,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)是影響經(jīng)濟(jì)總量增長(zhǎng)的顯著原因,而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并非產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的顯著原因。在此結(jié)果下,進(jìn)一步通過(guò)計(jì)量方法測(cè)算了三次產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的邊際貢獻(xiàn),結(jié)果顯示：第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)最大,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)次之,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)最小。最后,本文根據(jù)理論和實(shí)證的分析結(jié)論,認(rèn)為湖北省產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展中應(yīng)該遵循產(chǎn)業(yè)演變的規(guī)律和地域資源的特色,抓住城鎮(zhèn)化和兩型社會(huì)的建設(shè)機(jī)遇,并大力發(fā)揮科學(xué)技術(shù)的作用,從而推動(dòng)湖北產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)平穩(wěn)快速的調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:There is a close relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. To a certain extent, the change of industrial structure can promote the sustained and stable growth of economic aggregate. The constant growth of economic aggregate also requires corresponding changes in industrial structure. At present, most of our country is in the stage of rapid economic growth. Upgrading of industrial structure is bound to become one of the measures to maintain high economic growth. But for different regions, the relationship between industrial structure changes and economic growth may not be the same. Can changes in industrial structure have an impact on economic growth? What is the impact? These are the problems this paper attempts to explore. This paper intends to explore the process of economic development in Hubei Province through econometric analysis of the statistical data of economic development in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2011. The paper is divided into five parts except introduction. Firstly, the paper describes and analyzes the current situation of economic growth and industrial structure change in Hubei Province. Through qualitative analysis of the impact of industrial structure changes on economic growth mechanism. It is found that the change of industrial structure mainly affects the growth of economic aggregate from two aspects: 1. The change of industrial structure promotes the growth of economic aggregate by promoting the effective allocation of resources; 2 the change of industrial structure promotes the growth of economic aggregate through the turnover of leading industries. On the basis of this theoretical basis, the econometric model is established to test the Granger causality between the changes of industrial structure and economic growth. The results show that in Hubei Province, the change of industrial structure is the significant reason that affects the total economic growth, but the economic growth is not the significant reason of the change of industrial structure. The results show that the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth is the largest, the tertiary industry is the second, and the primary industry is the least. Based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, this paper holds that the industrial development in Hubei Province should follow the rules of industrial evolution and the characteristics of regional resources, and seize the opportunities of urbanization and the construction of a two-type society. And give full play to the role of science and technology, thus promoting a stable and rapid adjustment of the industrial structure of Hubei.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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本文編號(hào)：1400926