發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-08 22:29

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：陜西城鎮(zhèn)化與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展互動關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究　出處：《西北大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城鎮(zhèn)化 第三產(chǎn)業(yè) Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)

【摘要】：國家或區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)的一個重要標(biāo)志就是其城鎮(zhèn)化水平,一般來說,城鎮(zhèn)化水平與國家或區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平正相關(guān)。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的不斷提高和城鎮(zhèn)化的加速推進(jìn),第三產(chǎn)業(yè)作為第一、二產(chǎn)業(yè)的后續(xù)服務(wù)職能日益凸現(xiàn)出來,其在安置就業(yè)、增加農(nóng)民收入、協(xié)調(diào)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、完善城鎮(zhèn)功能和統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展等方面均發(fā)揮著重要作用。研究表明,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展到一定水平,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)將取代第二產(chǎn)業(yè)成為城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的主要推動力,同時(shí),城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高也影響第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。當(dāng)前,陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展已經(jīng)取得了相當(dāng)大的成就,而第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展卻平凡無奇甚至有下降態(tài)勢,研究陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的互動關(guān)系,對于促進(jìn)陜西省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)良性發(fā)展,提高陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化水平具有重要意義。 本文以陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的相關(guān)關(guān)系為研究對象,運(yùn)用理論分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的研究方法,對陜西省的城鎮(zhèn)化與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了綜述,根據(jù)2000-2011年陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化率、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP的比重、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人員占社會就業(yè)人員比重、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值占GDP的比重、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值增加比率的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等方法對陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的關(guān)聯(lián)度進(jìn)行定量分析。研究結(jié)果表明：陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展有力地帶動了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人員比重的提高,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)人員的增多也是陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化平穩(wěn)高速發(fā)展的格蘭杰原因；同時(shí),陜西省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的快速增長極大地推動了城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展,長期來看,城鎮(zhèn)化對陜西省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值增速的推動作用不明顯,但短期內(nèi)提高城鎮(zhèn)化水平仍然對于刺激第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值增長速度有積極意義。本文在最后理論分析了城鎮(zhèn)化與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的相互制約關(guān)系,并立足陜西省的實(shí)際情況,初步提出完善相關(guān)制度及保障、重視第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、合理選擇第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模、完善城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展模式等政策建議。
[Abstract]:An important sign of a country or a region's economic development is its urbanization level, generally speaking. The level of urbanization is positively related to the level of national or regional economic development. With the continuous improvement of the level of economic development and the acceleration of urbanization, the tertiary industry as the first. The follow-up service function of the second industry is increasingly prominent, which plays an important role in the placement of employment, increasing the income of farmers, coordinating the development of industry, perfecting the functions of cities and towns and coordinating the development of urban and rural areas. When the economy develops to a certain level, the tertiary industry will replace the secondary industry as the main driving force of the urbanization development. At the same time, the improvement of the urbanization level will also affect the development of the tertiary industry. The development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province has made considerable achievements, but the development of the tertiary industry is not unusual or even has a declining trend, the interactive relationship between urbanization and the development of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province has been studied. It is of great significance to promote the healthy development of the tertiary industry and improve the urbanization level of Shaanxi Province. In this paper, the relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry development in Shaanxi Province as the research object, the use of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the combination of research methods, the urbanization and tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province are summarized. According to the urbanization rate of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2011, the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP, the proportion of tertiary industry employment to social employment, the proportion of tertiary industry added value to GDP. The data of increasing ratio of added value of tertiary industry are tested by unit root test and cointegration test. The correlation degree between urbanization and tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province is quantitatively analyzed by Granger causality test. The results show that:. The development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province has contributed to the increase of the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry. The increase in the number of employees in the tertiary industry is also the Granger reason for the steady and rapid development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province. At the same time, the rapid growth of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province has greatly promoted the development of urbanization. In the long run, the role of urbanization in promoting the growth rate of the added value of the tertiary industry in Shaanxi Province is not obvious. But in the short term, improving the level of urbanization is still positive significance to stimulate the growth rate of added value of tertiary industry. Finally, this paper analyzes the relationship between urbanization and the development of tertiary industry. Based on the actual situation of Shaanxi Province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as perfecting the relevant system and guarantee, attaching importance to the development of the tertiary industry, rationally selecting the scale of the development of the tertiary industry, and perfecting the development mode of urbanization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F299.2

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本文編號：1398959