不同能源系統(tǒng)發(fā)展模式下的碳排放情景模擬分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-01-08 22:32
本文關(guān)鍵詞:不同能源系統(tǒng)發(fā)展模式下的碳排放情景模擬分析 出處:《天津大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文
更多相關(guān)文章: 復(fù)雜能源系統(tǒng) 氣候變化 最大信息熵原理 最大流原理
【摘要】:氣候變化是21世紀(jì)最受關(guān)注的環(huán)境問(wèn)題之一,而與能源系統(tǒng)有關(guān)的碳排放占據(jù)了非常重要的比例,在中國(guó)這樣的新興、快速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中更是如此。近年來(lái)國(guó)內(nèi)一次性能源消耗以遠(yuǎn)超GDP增速的年均增長(zhǎng)率高速增加,使中國(guó)成為了世界上二氧化碳排放量最多的國(guó)家。為了探究中國(guó)能源系統(tǒng)的碳減排策略,我們認(rèn)為有必要首先對(duì)該系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展、演化趨勢(shì)及內(nèi)部機(jī)制作深入、量化的研究,為將來(lái)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整以及為應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化而進(jìn)行的努力提供參考。 本文從微觀動(dòng)力學(xué)和宏觀結(jié)構(gòu)方面研究了能源系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)模式的演化規(guī)律,通過(guò)運(yùn)用廣義信息熵原理探討了能源系統(tǒng)的宏觀結(jié)構(gòu)形成和演變的動(dòng)力學(xué)規(guī)律,形成了能源系統(tǒng)演化發(fā)展的新模型。從理論出發(fā),本文發(fā)展了一套算法,,形成一個(gè)新的以嚴(yán)格理論為基礎(chǔ)的復(fù)雜性科學(xué)數(shù)值模擬方法,借助Matlab平臺(tái),解決了復(fù)雜能源系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)模式演化的模擬實(shí)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,并考察了中國(guó)能源系統(tǒng)在過(guò)去及未來(lái)三種不同發(fā)展模式下能耗的演變趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the most talked about environmental issues in twenty-first Century, and related carbon emissions energy system occupies a very important proportion in China such emerging economies, the rapid development of even more so. In recent years the domestic disposable energy consumption more than the average annual growth rate of GDP growth and rapid increase in the Chinese become the carbon dioxide emissions of most countries in the world. In order to explore the Chinese energy system of carbon reduction strategy, we think it is necessary first to the development of the system, making the evolution trend and internal machine in-depth quantitative research, provide a reference for the future adjustment of energy structure and efforts to cope with climate change.
This paper study the evolution model of energy system structure from the micro and macro structure dynamics, by using the generalized information entropy principle discussed the dynamic evolution of the formation of macro structure and energy system, the formation of a new model of development and evolution of the energy system. From the view of theory, this paper develops a set of algorithms, a simulation method the new science of complexity theory based on strict numerical form, using Matlab platform to realize the simulation of complex model of energy system structure evolution, and the effects of the Chinese energy system in the past and future of three different development patterns under the trend of energy consumption.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F124.5;X24
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
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