發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-20 22:18

  本文選題：進(jìn)口　切入點(diǎn)：貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：重商主義至今,各國紛紛鼓勵出口。在政策上,大多數(shù)國家尤其是發(fā)展中國家積極采取出口導(dǎo)向型政策、進(jìn)口替代型政策、保護(hù)幼稚工業(yè)政策等政策措施,把出口看作是拉動國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要動力。在理論上國內(nèi)外大量學(xué)者從不同的角度對出口及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了探討。出口曾為各國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展提供了重要動力和保障。然而,隨著不少國家國內(nèi)資源的消耗、人口紅利的消失、生產(chǎn)成本的上升、環(huán)境的惡化等問題的出現(xiàn),再一味地追求擴(kuò)大出口而忽略進(jìn)口的話,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展將會進(jìn)入“瓶頸”狀態(tài)。近年來,雖然有部分國家也開始關(guān)注進(jìn)口,但僅把進(jìn)口看作是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的附屬品,對進(jìn)口貿(mào)易商品的結(jié)構(gòu)問題很少關(guān)注,進(jìn)口的各種商品并沒有發(fā)揮充分的作用。對進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整基本上是“適應(yīng)性”的,沒有具體的理論作為指導(dǎo)。出口是一國的需求管理手段,進(jìn)口是一國的供給管理手段,進(jìn)口同出口一樣能夠促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和優(yōu)化也將有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步增長。因此,本文圍繞著進(jìn)口貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響問題,基于50個國家18年的數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證了二者之間的關(guān)系。文章一共有六個部分。第一部分:介紹了本文的研究背景和研究意義;從理論研究、傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制和實(shí)證研究三個方面綜述了進(jìn)口商品與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn);表明了本文的研究內(nèi)容、方法、可能創(chuàng)新與不足之處。第二部分:初步分析了全球進(jìn)口商品的現(xiàn)狀及變動趨勢、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的現(xiàn)狀及變動趨勢、世界進(jìn)口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的相互變動趨勢,為下文建立起進(jìn)口商品結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的理論模型提供依據(jù)。第三部分:從經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的角度表明進(jìn)口商品通過技術(shù)溢出、資本積累和產(chǎn)業(yè)升級三種方式促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長;并建立了進(jìn)口商品結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的隨機(jī)模型,推導(dǎo)出經(jīng)濟(jì)增長受到進(jìn)口商品增長率以及增長率波動的影響。第四部分:對進(jìn)口商品結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了劃分,實(shí)證了進(jìn)口商品各結(jié)構(gòu)及其波動對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響作用,結(jié)果表明,不同類型的商品的波動對經(jīng)濟(jì)的促進(jìn)作用是各異的。第五部分:對中國進(jìn)口商品結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了具體分析,指出中國應(yīng)該鼓勵初級品的進(jìn)口,但應(yīng)注意其增長速度,基本穩(wěn)定中間品進(jìn)口比例,適當(dāng)擴(kuò)大資本品和消費(fèi)品的進(jìn)口比例。并指出在經(jīng)濟(jì)最優(yōu)化增長的前提下進(jìn)口結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的方案是該種商品的成本份額等于其貢獻(xiàn)率份額。第六部分:對本文所研究的理論和實(shí)證等方面進(jìn)行了總結(jié);在結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出了政策性建議:注重進(jìn)口、合理引導(dǎo)本國居民的消費(fèi)和儲蓄、優(yōu)化本國的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)、注重進(jìn)口商品的質(zhì)量和效率問題等。對于進(jìn)口貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題的研究既是對經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究的擴(kuò)展與深化也為現(xiàn)實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動提供一定的理論參考。
[Abstract]:Mercantilism up to now, many countries have encouraged exports. In terms of policies, most countries, especially developing countries, have actively adopted export-oriented policies, import substitution policies, and policies to protect childish industries. In theory, a large number of scholars at home and abroad have discussed the relationship between export and economic growth from different angles. Export has been put forward for the rapid development of national economy. Provide important impetus and security. However, With the consumption of domestic resources in many countries, the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the rise in production costs, the deterioration of the environment, and so on, the blind pursuit of expanding exports and neglecting imports, Economic development will enter a "bottleneck" state. In recent years, although some countries have also begun to pay attention to imports, they only regard imports as an accessory to economic development, and pay little attention to the structural problems of imported trade commodities. The adjustment of the import structure is basically "adaptive", and there is no specific theory to guide it. Export is a country's means of demand management, and import is a country's means of supply management. The adjustment and optimization of import structure will also be beneficial to further economic growth. Therefore, this paper focuses on the impact of the structure of import trade commodities on economic growth. Based on 18 years' data of 50 countries, this paper demonstrates the relationship between the two. There are six parts in this paper. The first part: introduce the research background and significance of this paper, from the theoretical research, This paper summarizes the related literature on import commodities and economic growth from three aspects of conduction mechanism and empirical research, and shows the contents and methods of this paper. The second part: a preliminary analysis of the current situation and trends of global imports, the current situation and trends of global economic growth, and the interchanging trends between world import trade and economic growth. The third part: from the angle of economic theory, it shows that import commodities promote economic growth through three ways: technology spillover, capital accumulation and industrial upgrading. The stochastic model between the structure of import commodities and economic growth is established, and the influence of the growth rate of import commodities and the fluctuation of growth rate on economic growth is deduced. Part 4th: the structure of imported commodities is divided. The effects of various structures of imported commodities and their fluctuations on economic growth are demonstrated. The effects of the fluctuation of different types of commodities on the economy are different. Part 5th: this paper makes a concrete analysis of the relationship between the structure of China's imported commodities and its economic growth, and points out that China should encourage the import of primary commodities. However, we should pay attention to its growth rate and basically stabilize the proportion of imports of intermediate goods. Appropriate expansion of the import ratio of capital goods and consumer goods. It is pointed out that the scheme of import structural adjustment under the premise of optimal economic growth is that the cost share of this commodity is equal to its share of contribution rate. Part 6th: on the basis of this study. The theoretical and empirical aspects are summarized. On the basis of the conclusion, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions: pay attention to import, reasonably guide the consumption and savings of domestic residents, and optimize the structure of import trade commodities in our country. The research on the structure and economic growth of import trade commodities is not only the expansion and deepening of economic theory research, but also provides a certain theoretical reference for the actual economic activities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.61;F124

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