本文選題：耕地生態(tài)安全　切入點(diǎn)：PSR模型　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：生態(tài)安全是國(guó)家安全的重要部分,耕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)作為生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分,耕地生態(tài)安全狀況對(duì)地區(qū)生態(tài)安全的影響至關(guān)重要,對(duì)耕地生態(tài)安全狀況進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)與預(yù)測(cè),不僅能掌握當(dāng)前耕地生態(tài)安全狀況,了解影響耕地生態(tài)安全的障礙因素,更能針對(duì)其變化情況做出應(yīng)對(duì)措施,同時(shí),福建省作為21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路核心區(qū),經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨前所未有的新機(jī)遇,鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與耕地生態(tài)安全建設(shè)同等重要,分析兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r對(duì)指導(dǎo)區(qū)域的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建基于PSR模型的指標(biāo)體系,對(duì)福建省2004-2015年的耕地生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)與分析,通過(guò)障礙度模型分析主要障礙因子,同時(shí),運(yùn)用協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模型得出福建省2004-2015年經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)與耕地生態(tài)安全的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度,并分析了近年來(lái)兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,最后,運(yùn)用無(wú)偏GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測(cè)2016-2025年耕地生態(tài)安全的各指標(biāo)值,進(jìn)而得到未來(lái)十年的耕地生態(tài)安全值,對(duì)其進(jìn)行分析可知福建省未來(lái)十年的耕地生態(tài)安全狀況。本研究的結(jié)論主要有:(1)耕地生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀評(píng)價(jià)及障礙因子分析。2004-2015年,福建省耕地生態(tài)安全狀況逐年改善,安全狀態(tài)從一般安全級(jí)提升為比較安全級(jí),此期間對(duì)耕地生態(tài)安全產(chǎn)生較大影響的阻礙層從初期的響應(yīng)層轉(zhuǎn)為后期的壓力層,具體的障礙因素不同時(shí)期各不相同,2004-2009年主要有耕地墾殖率、單位面積農(nóng)膜負(fù)荷、單位耕地面積化肥負(fù)荷等;2010-2015年主要有單位耕地面積化肥負(fù)荷、環(huán)境污染治理投資占GDP比重、農(nóng)村人均可支配收入等。(2)耕地生態(tài)安全與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r分析。2004-2015年,福建省耕地生態(tài)年全與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)度和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度都呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)性不斷增強(qiáng),協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展情況從初期的失調(diào)發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)滯后型逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦呒?jí)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展同步型。(3)耕地生態(tài)安全變化情況預(yù)測(cè)及分析。根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果得出,2016-2025年,福建省耕地生態(tài)安全值呈下降趨勢(shì),安全等級(jí)隨之下降,從2016-2020年的較安全狀態(tài)降低到2021-2025年的一般安全狀態(tài),且有繼續(xù)下降的趨勢(shì),經(jīng)分析得出,2016-2020年主要的障礙層為響應(yīng)層,障礙因素主要有農(nóng)村人均可支配收入、森林覆蓋率、單位耕地面積農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械總動(dòng)力等,2021-2025年最大的障礙層為壓力層,主要障礙因素包括耕地墾殖率、單位耕地面積農(nóng)膜負(fù)荷、單位耕地面積化肥負(fù)荷等。
[Abstract]:Ecological security is an important part of national security. Cultivated land ecosystem is an important part of ecosystem. Not only can we grasp the current situation of ecological security of cultivated land, understand the obstacles affecting the ecological security of cultivated land, but also respond to its changing situation. At the same time, Fujian Province is the core area of the 21st century maritime Silk Road. Economic development is facing unprecedented new opportunities. Given that economic development is as important as the ecological security of cultivated land, It is of great significance to analyze the coordinated development of the two systems for guiding the sustainable development of the region. Through constructing the index system based on PSR model, this paper evaluates and analyzes the present situation of ecological security of cultivated land in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015. This paper analyzes the main obstacle factors through the barrier degree model, at the same time, using the coordinated development model, obtains the coordinated development degree of Fujian Province's economic system and cultivated land ecological security from 2004 to 2015, and analyzes the coordinated development situation of the two systems in recent years. In this paper, the unbiased GM1 / 1) model is used to predict the ecological security of cultivated land in 2016-2025, and then the ecological security of cultivated land in the next ten years is obtained. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the present situation of cultivated land ecological security and the analysis of obstacle factors. From 2004 to 2015, the situation of cultivated land ecological security in Fujian Province has been improved year by year. The safety state was upgraded from the general safety level to the relatively safe level. During this period, the barrier layer, which had a great impact on the ecological security of cultivated land, changed from the initial response layer to the later pressure layer. The specific obstacle factors are mainly cultivated land reclamation rate, agricultural film load per unit area, chemical fertilizer load per cultivated land area and chemical fertilizer load per unit cultivated land area during 2004-2009. The proportion of environmental pollution control investment in GDP is the highest in 2010-2015. Analysis on the coordinated Development of Ecological Security of cultivated Land and economy in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015, the degree of coordination and coordinated development between the whole cultivated land ecological year and the economy in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend, and the coordination between the two systems was continuously strengthened. The situation of coordinated development has gradually changed from the initial unbalanced development economy lagging type to the advanced coordinated development synchronizing type. The change of cultivated land ecological security has been predicted and analyzed. According to the forecast results, the cultivated land ecological security value in Fujian Province has a downward trend in 2016-2025. The security level then decreased, from the safer state of 2016-2020 to the general safe state of 2021-2025, and the trend continued to decline. After analysis, it was concluded that the main barrier layer in 2016-2020 was the response layer, and the main obstacle factors were the per capita disposable income in rural areas. The biggest obstacle layer of forest coverage, total power of agricultural machinery per unit cultivated land in 2021-2025 is pressure layer, the main obstacle factors include cultivated land reclamation rate, agricultural film load per unit cultivated land area, fertilizer load per unit cultivated land area, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X826;F323.211

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張騫;高明;楊樂(lè);陳成龍;孫宇;王金柱;;1988—2013年重慶市主城九區(qū)生態(tài)用地空間結(jié)構(gòu)及其生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價(jià)值變化[J];生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào);2017年02期

2 劉小波;秦天彬;周寶同;涂建軍;;基于改進(jìn)SPA的樂(lè)山市耕地生態(tài)安全評(píng)價(jià)[J];西南師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2016年03期

3 馬駿;孫茂洋;關(guān)一凡;;江蘇省經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展實(shí)證分析[J];生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì);2016年02期

4 姚紹紅;;熵權(quán)法在多因素評(píng)估系統(tǒng)中的應(yīng)用與研究[J];電腦知識(shí)與技術(shù);2015年27期

5 鄭華偉;張銳;孟展;劉友兆;;基于PSR模型與集對(duì)分析的耕地生態(tài)安全診斷[J];中國(guó)土地科學(xué);2015年12期

6 聶艷;彭雅婷;于婧;周勇;于雷;羅靜;;基于量子遺傳投影尋蹤模型的湖北省耕地生態(tài)安全評(píng)價(jià)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)地理;2015年11期

7 譚俊濤;張平宇;李靜;劉世薇;;吉林省城鎮(zhèn)化與生態(tài)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的時(shí)空演變特征[J];應(yīng)用生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào);2015年12期

8 蔡銀鶯;羅成;;江漢平原耕地資源生態(tài)安全狀況及空間集聚格局[J];華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2015年05期

9 臧玉珠;彭慧;周生路;吳紹華;吳瀅瀅;嚴(yán)長(zhǎng)清;;蘇南地區(qū)土地生態(tài)質(zhì)量空間分異及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)性評(píng)價(jià)[J];水土保持研究;2015年03期

10 謝花林;劉曲;姚冠榮;談明洪;;基于PSR模型的區(qū)域土地利用可持續(xù)性水平測(cè)度——以鄱陽(yáng)湖生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)為例[J];資源科學(xué);2015年03期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 潘利;京津冀區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)互動(dòng)發(fā)展實(shí)證分析[D];河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué);2015年

2 盧懿;灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型的研究及其應(yīng)用[D];浙江理工大學(xué);2014年

，

本文編號(hào)：1668061