本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國西部地區(qū)省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展評價研究　出處：《長安大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是人類文明進步和社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要歷史過程,是近現(xiàn)代以來推動人類社會前進的引擎,也是21世紀我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的重大主題之一。在城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展進程中,城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模是相輔相成、相互促進、相互制約的關(guān)系。若盲目追求城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模,忽視城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量的提升,就會出現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的“亞健康”現(xiàn)象;反之,僅強調(diào)城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量,漠視城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模,同樣會減緩城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的步伐。西部地區(qū)作為中國較為落后的地區(qū),城鎮(zhèn)化水平明顯滯后于東部發(fā)達地區(qū)。隨著西部大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略的深入,西部地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟、社會、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、居民生活、生態(tài)環(huán)境、城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌等方面都得到了顯著提高,但在城鎮(zhèn)化過程中亦存在城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模未能協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的問題。如何在城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模之間建立一種最佳的鏈接,實現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展的同時兼顧“質(zhì)”與“量”的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,是一個值得探討深究的問題。本文從城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模兩個視角出發(fā),采用熵權(quán)法、線性加權(quán)和法、聚類分析法、協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度、灰色預測法等定量方法,按照“內(nèi)涵-指標-測度-協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系-類型-預測”的思路,系統(tǒng)地研究了2006-2013年中國西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展關(guān)系,不僅避免了單一年份的特殊性問題,使得城鎮(zhèn)化的評價結(jié)果更加符合實際情況,還可以把握近年來西部地區(qū)省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)的動態(tài)演變規(guī)律,為西部地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展決策提供參考和借鑒。首先,按照科學性、系統(tǒng)性、層次性、代表性和可操作性等原則,從城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量的內(nèi)涵出發(fā),統(tǒng)籌考慮經(jīng)濟、社會、居民生活、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、生態(tài)環(huán)境和城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌六個方面,建立了城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量綜合評價指標體系;同時,依據(jù)城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模的內(nèi)涵,從人口規(guī)模和空間規(guī)模兩個方面,構(gòu)建了城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模綜合評價指標體系。其次,運用熵權(quán)法,對2006-2013年中國西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模綜合評價指標體系的相關(guān)面板數(shù)據(jù)進行統(tǒng)計分析,確定了各評價指標的權(quán)重,再根據(jù)建立的城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量綜合評價指標體系和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模綜合評價指標體系,分別測度了中國西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模的綜合發(fā)展水平,并且利用聚類分析法,分析探討了中國西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模的空間演變特征。最后,根據(jù)測算出的2006-2013年中國西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量和城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)模綜合發(fā)展水平,采用協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度的計算方法,測度分析了2006-2013年中國西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展狀況,并分析了其時空演變特征。得出了西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模正在逐漸向更協(xié)調(diào)方向演進的結(jié)果;進而運用灰色預測法,預測分析了西部地區(qū)10個省會城市城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平,為促進西部地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量與規(guī)模協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an important historical process of the progress of human civilization and the development of social economy, is the modern society forward engine, one of China's economic and social development of the major theme is twenty-first Century. In the process of urbanization, urbanization and urbanization scale is complementary, mutual promotion and mutual restriction between the if. The blind pursuit of the scale of urbanization, ignoring the urbanization quality improvement, there will be the development of urbanization in the "sub healthy" phenomenon; on the contrary, only emphasizes the quality of urbanization, ignoring the scale of urbanization, urbanization also slowed the pace of development of the western region. As a Chinese relatively backward region, the level of urbanization lags behind the eastern area. With the western development strategy deeply, the western region in the economic, social, infrastructure, ecological environment, urban and rural residents, and other aspects have been significantly. High, but the quality and scale of the coordinated development of urbanization problems also exist in the process of failure in town. How to establish a link between the optimal scale of urbanization quality and towns, realize the rapid development of urbanization and the coordinated development of both the "quality" and "quantity", it is worth to study further the problem in this paper. From the two aspects of the scale of urbanization and urban quality, by using entropy method and linear weighted method, clustering analysis method, the coordinated development degree, the quantitative method of grey forecast method, according to the connotation of "- - - - index measure coordination type forecast" ideas, to study 2006-2013 in the quality and scale of urbanization in 10 capital city China western region coordinated development between, not only to avoid the special problem of a single year, the urbanization makes the evaluation results more in line with the actual situation, can also grasp the West in recent years. The dynamic changes of the capital city urbanization region, and provide the reference for the decision-making of healthy and sustainable development of the urbanization of western region. First of all, according to scientific, systematic, hierarchical, representative and operational principle, starting from the connotation of urbanization quality, and consider the economic, social, population life, infrastructure, ecological environment and the six aspects of urban and rural areas, established a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization quality; at the same time, according to the connotation of urbanization scale, from the two aspects of the scale of population size and spatial scale of urbanization, constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system. Secondly, using entropy method of panel data Chinese West 2006-2013 10 capital city urbanization quality and the scale of urbanization comprehensive evaluation index system for statistical analysis, to determine the weight of each index, and then according to the established Urbanization The quality of the comprehensive evaluation index system and the scale of urbanization comprehensive evaluation index system, the comprehensive development level of the scale of capital city of the 10 China western region urbanization quality and towns respectively measure, clustering analysis and utilization, analyzes 10 provinces in western region will China evolution characteristics of city scale urbanization and urban space quality finally, according to the estimates of the 2006-2013 China West 10 capital city urbanization quality and the scale of urbanization comprehensive development level, the calculation method of the coordinated development degree, the 2006-2013 measure analysis of urbanization quality of 10 capital city China western region and scale coordinated development condition, and analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics. The urbanization quality of 10 provincial and city scale in the western region is gradually to the direction of the evolution of the coordination results; and then use the gray prediction method, The coordinated development level of urbanization quality and scale in the 10 provincial capitals of Western China is predicted and analyzed, providing a decision-making basis for promoting the coordinated development of quality and scale of urbanization in Western China.

【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F127;F299.21

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