發(fā)布時間：2018-05-21 06:47

  本文選題：資本項目開放 + 潛在風(fēng)險　； 參考：《中共中央黨校》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：資本項目開放是貨幣國際化進(jìn)程中的重要步驟，也是一國經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化程度的重要衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。國際經(jīng)驗表明，資本項目開放可以使資本在全球范圍內(nèi)自由流動，有利于提高資本要素的資源配置效率、促進(jìn)一國金融體制的國際化、規(guī)范化發(fā)展，然而同時也會對本國的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和金融市場產(chǎn)生重大影響，如果得不到合理的安排和控制，甚至可能引發(fā)金融危機(jī)。 隨著人民幣資本項目開放進(jìn)入全面推進(jìn)階段，對人民幣資本項目開放潛在風(fēng)險和應(yīng)對策略的討論也越來越多。本文以“人民幣資本項目開放的潛在風(fēng)險及對策研究”為題，，對于人資本項目開放的歷程、現(xiàn)狀、潛在風(fēng)險及應(yīng)對策略進(jìn)行了探討。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外關(guān)于資本項目開放條件、次序和風(fēng)險的研究進(jìn)行了綜述，進(jìn)而在此基礎(chǔ)上展開論述。選取日本、拉美國家、印度和泰國作為考察對象，研究了其資本項目開放的過程，對其中的經(jīng)驗和教訓(xùn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)，并提出了對人民幣資本項目開放的啟示。接下來，本文從外資引進(jìn)和利用、金融市場開放歷程、外匯管制方面的發(fā)展等三個角度介紹了人民幣資本項目開放的發(fā)展歷程和現(xiàn)狀，并以IMF界定的資本項目七大類、40個子項為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對人民幣資本項目開放的現(xiàn)狀做出分析和評價，認(rèn)為在40個子項中，我國已有85%的項目實現(xiàn)了完全或部分開放，已經(jīng)達(dá)到較高開放水平。 通過對人民幣資本項目開放歷程的考察和國際經(jīng)驗的分析、總結(jié)，本文提出了人民幣資本項目開放當(dāng)前階段所面臨的五類主要風(fēng)險，包括誘發(fā)資本外逃、影響人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定、干擾宏觀調(diào)控、沖擊銀行系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)健性和引發(fā)輸入型金融危機(jī)等。提出必須正視并妥善處理開放過程中的這些風(fēng)險和危機(jī)，實現(xiàn)人民幣資本項目開放的效益最大化和風(fēng)險最小化。 最后，針對人民幣資本項目開放面臨的潛在風(fēng)險，提出了相應(yīng)的對策：一是要選擇合理的開放次序，包括處理好人民幣資本項目開放與匯率市場化、利率市場化改革之間的次序以及資本項目內(nèi)部各子項目的開放次序；二是從各方面入手完善人民幣資本項目開放的風(fēng)險防范和管理，包括加強(qiáng)跨境資本監(jiān)督、加快推進(jìn)利率和匯率市場化、增強(qiáng)銀行體系穩(wěn)健性、完善金融監(jiān)管體制、建立并完善風(fēng)險預(yù)警機(jī)制、加強(qiáng)區(qū)域合作等。
[Abstract]:The opening of capital account is an important step in the process of currency internationalization and an important measure of the degree of economic liberalization of a country. International experience shows that the opening of capital items can make capital flow freely around the world, improve the efficiency of resource allocation of capital elements, promote the internationalization of a country's financial system, and standardize the development of the capital project. However, it will also have a significant impact on the economic environment and financial markets in the country. If there is no reasonable arrangement and control, it may even lead to a financial crisis.
With the opening of RMB capital project opening to the full stage, there are more and more discussions on the potential risks and coping strategies of the opening of RMB capital account. This paper, on the topic of "the potential risks and Countermeasures of the opening of RMB capital projects", has carried out the course, current situation, potential risks and coping strategies of the opening of human capital projects. Discuss.
This paper first summarizes the research on the conditions, order and risk of capital account opening at home and abroad, and then discusses the process of opening up the capital project, summarizes the experience and lessons of the capital account, and puts forward the capital of RMB. Next, this article introduces the development course and present situation of the opening of the RMB capital account from three angles, such as the introduction and utilization of foreign capital, the opening course of the financial market, the development of foreign exchange control and so on, and the seven categories of capital items defined by IMF and 40 sub items as the standard to make a division of the current situation of the opening of the RMB capital account. In the 40 sub items, 85% of China's projects have been completely or partly opened, and have reached a higher level of openness.
Through the investigation of the opening course of the RMB capital project and the analysis of the international experience, this paper puts forward five kinds of main risks facing the current stage of the opening of the RMB capital account, which includes inducing capital flight, affecting the stability of the RMB exchange rate, interfering with macroeconomic regulation, punching the conservatism of the banking system and triggering the input financial crisis. We must face up to and properly handle these risks and crises in the process of opening up so as to maximize the benefits and minimize risks of RMB capital account liberalization.
Finally, in view of the potential risks faced by the opening of the RMB capital account, the corresponding countermeasures are put forward: first, we should choose a reasonable opening order, including the handling of the opening of RMB capital items and exchange rate marketization, the order between the reform of interest rate marketization and the opening order of each sub item within the capital project; two We should improve the risk prevention and management of the opening of the RMB capital project, including strengthening the supervision of cross-border capital, speeding up the marketization of interest rate and exchange rate, strengthening the stability of the banking system, perfecting the financial supervision system, establishing and improving the risk early warning mechanism, and strengthening regional cooperation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1918174