發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-02 10:10

【摘要】：油田開(kāi)發(fā)是一項(xiàng)投資巨大、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性很強(qiáng)的工作,而“油田開(kāi)發(fā)方案”是油田開(kāi)發(fā)總體效果的綜合規(guī)劃,因此油田開(kāi)發(fā)方案的優(yōu)劣直接影響著油田開(kāi)發(fā)效益的好壞。油田開(kāi)發(fā)方案的評(píng)價(jià)是一個(gè)多準(zhǔn)則的決策問(wèn)題,由于備擇方案各指標(biāo)具有不可公度性,且備擇方案的某些指標(biāo)又往往相互矛盾,因此給決策帶來(lái)困難,決策是否正確,是否合理影響油氣開(kāi)發(fā)的發(fā)展。有關(guān)油田開(kāi)發(fā)方案決策的研究已經(jīng)有很多,但大多數(shù)研究都以經(jīng)濟(jì)利得與損失為考核指標(biāo),雖然對(duì)油田開(kāi)發(fā)的進(jìn)行具有一定積極的參考價(jià)值,但不足以體現(xiàn)油田開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目所能帶來(lái)的其它方面的影響,僅從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度去評(píng)價(jià)一個(gè)開(kāi)發(fā)方案是片面的。為了更加全面的評(píng)價(jià)油田開(kāi)發(fā)的價(jià)值所在,本文提出用多屬性決策研究油田開(kāi)發(fā)方案的決策問(wèn)題,多屬性決策理論研究的就是具有多個(gè)屬性(指標(biāo))的有限決策方案的排序問(wèn)題,借以使決策者針對(duì)油田現(xiàn)在所處的內(nèi)、外部環(huán)境,依據(jù)自身資源、技術(shù)、資金、人力等條件,實(shí)現(xiàn)油田開(kāi)發(fā)的全局管理,為油田開(kāi)發(fā)管理者提供依據(jù)。文章從油田開(kāi)發(fā)方案的多屬性評(píng)價(jià)入手,通過(guò)分析油田開(kāi)發(fā)的多屬性特點(diǎn),根據(jù)實(shí)際情況和眾多參考資料設(shè)計(jì)出了一套涵蓋了經(jīng)濟(jì)財(cái)務(wù)、生態(tài)損失、地區(qū)社會(huì)和開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的多層次指標(biāo)體系。提出了基于區(qū)間模糊數(shù)的AHP,通過(guò)區(qū)間數(shù)與層次分析法結(jié)合,計(jì)算指標(biāo)權(quán)重,并將單一屬性值擴(kuò)展為區(qū)間數(shù),運(yùn)用GRA進(jìn)行方案優(yōu)選,能夠充分考慮到實(shí)際情況中屬性指標(biāo)信息模糊的特點(diǎn),最后根據(jù)具體案例進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,充分肯定了該方法的科學(xué)性和可行性。
[Abstract]:Oilfield development is a work with huge investment and strong risk, and "oilfield development plan" is the comprehensive planning of the overall effect of oilfield development. Therefore, the advantages and disadvantages of oilfield development plan directly affect the benefit of oilfield development. The evaluation of oilfield development scheme is a decision problem of multiple criteria. Because of the incommensurate degree of each index of the alternative scheme and the contradiction of some indexes of the alternative scheme, it brings difficulties to the decision-making and whether the decision is correct or not. Whether it is reasonable to affect the development of oil and gas development. There has been a lot of research on the decision making of oilfield development scheme, but most of the studies are based on economic gain and loss, although it has some positive reference value for oilfield development. However, it is not enough to reflect the impact of other aspects of oilfield development projects. It is unilateral to evaluate a development plan from an economic point of view. In order to evaluate the value of oilfield development more comprehensively, this paper puts forward the decision making problem of oilfield development scheme with multi-attribute decision. The theory of multi-attribute decision making studies the sequencing problem of finite decision making schemes with multiple attributes (indicators), so that the decision makers can make decision makers according to their own resources, technology, funds, manpower and other conditions in the present internal and external environment of the oil field. To realize the global management of oilfield development and provide the basis for oilfield development manager. This paper starts with the multi-attribute evaluation of oilfield development scheme, through analyzing the multi-attribute characteristics of oilfield development, according to the actual situation and many reference materials, designs a set of covering economic, financial and ecological losses. The multi-level index system of regional social and development risk. In this paper, AHP, based on interval fuzzy number is proposed to calculate the index weight through the combination of interval number and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the single attribute value is extended to interval number, and GRA is used to select the optimal scheme. It can fully take into account the characteristics of fuzzy attribute index information in the actual situation. Finally, according to the specific case study, the scientific and feasibility of the method is fully affirmed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(華東)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.22

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