發(fā)布時間：2018-05-18 10:17

  本文選題：煤層氣發(fā)電 + 項目風險　； 參考：《山東科技大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：2013年9月國務院辦公廳發(fā)布的《國務院辦公廳關于進一步加快煤層氣(煤礦瓦斯)抽采利用的若干意見》和2016年11月國家能源局發(fā)布的《煤層氣(煤礦瓦斯)開發(fā)利用十三五規(guī)劃》專項規(guī)劃將煤層氣這種煤礦安全生產主要隱患的清潔能源作為規(guī)劃重點,鼓勵煤層氣開采和綜合利用一體式發(fā)展。大型煤礦集團利用礦井下抽采的煤層氣為燃料進行發(fā)電,可以減少資源浪費,降低煤礦安全隱患。發(fā)展煤層氣發(fā)電項目具有極大的經(jīng)濟、社會和環(huán)境效益,符合國家大力發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟要求。因此,煤層氣發(fā)電項目的風險研究顯得尤為重要。本文首先結合項目全生命周期理論和煤層氣發(fā)電項目自身特點將煤層氣發(fā)電項目的全生命周期劃分為了概念、設計、施工和運營四個階段,利用文獻研究法識別出四個階段的風險因素共24個;然后通過調查問卷和SPSS軟件對識別出的風險因素進行統(tǒng)計分析,剔除重要性較小的7個風險因素,剩下的17個風險因素作為煤層氣發(fā)電項目的關鍵風險因素,由此建立煤層氣發(fā)電項目的風險評價指標體系;其次,根據(jù)建立的風險評價指標體系,應用灰色系統(tǒng)理論建立煤層氣發(fā)電項目的風險評價模型,利用改進的灰色關聯(lián)度計算各項指標的權重,確定煤層氣發(fā)電項目全生命周期各個階段以及各階段的具體風險因素對項目整體風險的影響程度,并運用灰色聚類分析確定煤層氣發(fā)電項目的整體風險水平;根據(jù)建立的評價模型對某煤層氣發(fā)電項目進行實例分析,得出該項目風險評價總目標的灰色評價權向量為(0.0131,0.1007, 0.2971,0.3233, 0.2658),根據(jù)最大權原則,灰色評價權向量中的最大值屬于第四灰類,所以該項目的整體風險水平為“較高”;最后,依據(jù)風險控制、風險自留和風險轉移等措施,針對煤層氣發(fā)電項目全生命周期的關鍵風險因素提出風險應對策略。通過本文研究,系統(tǒng)地建立了煤層氣發(fā)電項目的綜合評價指標體系;在方法上,利用文獻研究和問卷調查相結合對項目風險進行識別,運用灰色系統(tǒng)理論建立風險評價模型并通過實例分析對模型進行驗證;針對煤層氣發(fā)電項目的關鍵風險因素提出相應的管理對策和建議,完善了煤層氣發(fā)電項目風險管理的內容。
[Abstract]:In September 2013, the general office of the State Council issued a number of opinions on the further acceleration of coal seam gas (coal mine gas) extraction and utilization by the general office of the State Council and the special plan for the development and utilization of coal bed gas (coal mine gas) in 13th Five-Year by the state Energy Bureau in November 2016. In order to focus on the planning, we should encourage the development of coal seam gas mining and comprehensive utilization. Large coal mining groups make use of coal seam gas extracted from the coal mine as fuel to generate electricity, which can reduce the waste of resources and reduce the hidden danger of coal mine safety. The development of coal-bed gas power generation project has great economic, social and environmental benefits, which conforms to the state's vigorous development of circular economy. Therefore, it is very important to study the risk of coal-bed gas power generation project. Firstly, the whole life cycle of CBM power generation project is divided into four stages of concept, design, construction and operation according to the whole life cycle theory of the project and the characteristics of the coal-bed gas generation project, and the risk of the four stages is identified by the method of literature research. There are 24 factors, and then through statistical analysis of the risk factors identified by the questionnaire and SPSS software, 7 risk factors which are less important are eliminated, and the remaining 17 risk factors are the key risk factors of the coal-bed gas power generation project, thus the risk evaluation index system of coal-bed gas power generation project is established. Secondly, based on the establishment of the risk assessment system of coal bed gas power generation project. The risk evaluation index system is used to establish the risk evaluation model of coal bed gas power generation project with grey system theory, and use the improved grey relational degree to calculate the weight of each index, determine the impact degree of the whole life cycle of the coal bed gas generation project and the specific risk factors of each stage to the overall risk of the project, and use the grey system. The cluster analysis is used to determine the overall risk level of the coal-bed gas power generation project. According to the established evaluation model, a case analysis of a coal-bed gas power generation project is carried out. The grey evaluation right vector of the total target of the project risk assessment is (0.0131,0.1007, 0.2971,0.3233, 0.2658), and the maximum weight of the grey evaluation weight vector is based on the most powerful principle. In the fourth grey category, the overall risk level of the project is "high". Finally, according to the risk control, risk retention and risk transfer, the risk coping strategies are put forward in accordance with the key risk factors of the whole life cycle of coal-bed gas power generation project. Through this study, the comprehensive evaluation index of the coal-bed gas power generation project is set up systematically. In the method, the project risk is identified by the combination of the literature research and the questionnaire survey, the risk evaluation model is established by the grey system theory and the model is verified by the case analysis. The corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the key risk factors of the coal-bed gas power generation project, and the wind power project wind is perfected. The content of risk management.
【學位授予單位】：山東科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.22;F426.61

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