本文關(guān)鍵詞：信息通信技術(shù)對中國經(jīng)濟增長的替代效應(yīng)與滲透效應(yīng)，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

信息通信技術(shù)對中國經(jīng)濟增長的替代效應(yīng)與滲透效應(yīng)

The Substitution and Pervasiveness Effects of ICT on China＇s Economic Growth

[1] [2]

Cai Yuezhou and Zhang Junnan （Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

[1]中國社會科學(xué)院數(shù)量經(jīng)濟與技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究所,100732; [2]中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院,102488

文章摘要：信息通信技術(shù)（ICT）對經(jīng)濟增長的影響可分為替代效應(yīng)和滲透效應(yīng)。前者是由技術(shù)進步帶來ICT產(chǎn)品價格下降，從而實現(xiàn)ICT資本對其他資本的替代，支撐經(jīng)濟增長；后者則是ICT作為通用目的技術(shù)能滲透和應(yīng)用于各產(chǎn)業(yè)部門，提高其全要素生產(chǎn)率（TFP），進而間接促進經(jīng)濟增長。本文依托Jorgenson及OECD的增長核算框架，對1977--2012年期間中國經(jīng)濟增長的來源進行細致分解，據(jù)以分析ICT的兩種效應(yīng)。實證結(jié)果表明：（1）ICT的替代效應(yīng)體現(xiàn)為ICT資本對增長的貢獻率，平均僅為3．4％，但1990年以后呈非常明顯的上升趨勢，2010--2012年期間更是高達9．8％，接近同期TFP的貢獻；（2）在ICT資本和TFP增長測算基礎(chǔ)上進行的格蘭杰因果檢驗印證了滲透效應(yīng)的存在。經(jīng)濟新常態(tài)下，充分發(fā)掘ICT的替代效應(yīng)和滲透效應(yīng)，有望為轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式、保持中高速增長提供新的動力源泉。

Abstr：The information and communication technology （ICT） has both a substitution effect and pervasiveness effect on economic growth. The technological progress brings the continuous price fall of ICT products, which in turn results in the substitution of ICT capital for non-ICT capital. Meanwhile, as a general purpose technology （GPT）, ICT has the character of pervasiveness, and are applied in almost all the other sectors, which would bring the improvement of TFP and economic growth. Within the framework of growth accounting formed by Jorgensen and OECD, the economic growth of China during the period 1977--2012 is divided into different sources. The substitution and pervasiveness effects of ICT are further analyzed based on the measurement results. It is indicated that ： （ 1 ） the contribution of ICT capital can be attributed as the substitution effect of ICT, which is only 3.4% on average. However, the contribution is significantly improved since 1990, and reaches a level of 9.83% during 2010--2012, almost that of TFP. （2） the pervasiveness effect of ICT would is confirmed with Granger Causality Test. China is entering a state of ＂ New Normal＂. To keep a moderate high growth rate while transforming the economic growth pattern, we should get rid of the dependence on investment. And ICT would be an important support for China＇s future growth.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Information and Communication Technology （ICT） General Purpose Technology （GPT） SubstitutionEffect Pervasiveness Effect Growth Accounting

課題項目：感謝中國社會科學(xué)院創(chuàng)新工程項目（10620151001005）、國家軟科學(xué)面上項目（2014GXS48073）、國家社科基金重大項目（12AZD096）資助.

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：信息通信技術(shù)對中國經(jīng)濟增長的替代效應(yīng)與滲透效應(yīng)，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。