發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-10 17:58

【摘要】：“中等收入陷阱”一詞始見(jiàn)于2007年世界銀行發(fā)布的《東亞復(fù)興：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的觀點(diǎn)》報(bào)告中。此后,這一概念被經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界廣泛討論,并被用來(lái)類(lèi)比拉美和一些亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體所面臨的困境,也常被作為參照來(lái)判斷中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的前景。2010年,中國(guó)人均GDP突破4000美元,正式進(jìn)入中等收入國(guó)家行列,中國(guó)能否順利從中等收入階段飛躍到高收入階段,越來(lái)越受到各界的關(guān)注。歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)告訴我們,中等收入階段是一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,處理不好即有可能落入中等收入陷阱之中。 本文通過(guò)考察落入陷阱的典型案例國(guó)家(巴西、阿根廷)在中等收入階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)特征,試圖找出落入中等收入陷阱的本質(zhì)原因,研究結(jié)果表明,導(dǎo)致其經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期徘徊甚至倒退的原因不僅僅是外部因素(外資)的影響,更重要的是國(guó)內(nèi)自身資本形成能力的低下(或者說(shuō)投資效率低下)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文考察了中國(guó)改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)的投資效率,發(fā)現(xiàn)其投資效率與典型陷阱國(guó)家存在相似性,說(shuō)明中國(guó)有落入中等收入陷阱的可能性。但是,目前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)并沒(méi)有落入陷阱的跡象,這也說(shuō)明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)必然存在特殊之處,正是這一特殊之處維持了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。而本文在對(duì)中國(guó)與典型陷阱國(guó)家比較中發(fā)現(xiàn),高儲(chǔ)蓄推動(dòng)了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng),在這一過(guò)程中儲(chǔ)蓄——投資轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制是關(guān)鍵。由此也引出了本文的核心,也是中國(guó)的特殊之處——國(guó)有銀行體制安排。在這一體制安排下,政府一方面通過(guò)各種方式把居民的金融剩余聚集在國(guó)有銀行的賬戶(hù)上,另一方面,通過(guò)加強(qiáng)對(duì)國(guó)有銀行信貸行為的控制實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)金融資源的集中配置,以確保產(chǎn)出的平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)。 這一絕妙的體制安排推動(dòng)了改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng),但其中也存在一定的隱患。本文在研究過(guò)程中就發(fā)現(xiàn)了在這一體制安排下可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)落入中等收入陷阱的兩種情況。針對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)可能出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題,本文認(rèn)為,提高政府資金配置效率和降低不良資產(chǎn)率是短期內(nèi)中國(guó)要采取的對(duì)策,政府在投資領(lǐng)域的轉(zhuǎn)型和利率市場(chǎng)化改革是長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)中國(guó)要遵循的路徑。
[Abstract]:The term "middle-income trap" began in the 2007 World Bank report "East Asia Renaissance: a View of Economic growth." Since then, the concept has been widely discussed in economists and used as an analogy to the difficulties faced by Latin America and some Asian economies, and is often used as a reference to judge the prospects of China's economy. In 2010, China's per capita GDP exceeded $4000. Whether China can leapfrog from middle income stage to high income stage is paid more and more attention to. Historical experience tells us that the middle income stage is the key period of a country's economic development, if it is not handled properly, it may fall into the middle income trap. This paper attempts to find out the essential reasons of falling into the middle income trap by examining the economic characteristics of the typical case countries (Brazil, Argentina) in the middle income stage. It is not only the influence of external factors, but also the inefficiency of domestic capital formation that causes its economy to linger or even regress for a long time. On this basis, this paper examines the investment efficiency of China since the reform and opening up, and finds that there are similarities between the investment efficiency and the typical trap countries, indicating that China has the possibility of falling into the middle-income trap. However, there is no sign of China's economy falling into a trap at present, which also indicates that there must be something special about the Chinese economy, which has maintained the steady growth of the Chinese economy. By comparing China with typical trap countries, this paper finds that high savings promote the steady growth of Chinese economy, and the mechanism of saving- investment transformation is the key in this process. This also leads to the core of this paper, and is a special place in China-state-owned banking system arrangements. Under this institutional arrangement, on the one hand, the government aggregates the residents' financial surplus in the accounts of state-owned banks in various ways; on the other hand, by strengthening the control over the credit behavior of state-owned banks, it realizes the centralized allocation of financial resources. To ensure a steady increase in output. This wonderful institutional arrangement has promoted the sustained and steady growth of China's economy since the reform and opening up, but there are also some hidden dangers. In the course of this study, we find two situations that may lead China to fall into the middle income trap under this institutional arrangement. In view of the possible future problems in China, this paper argues that improving the efficiency of government funds allocation and reducing the rate of non-performing assets are the countermeasures to be taken by China in the short term. The transformation of government investment and the reform of interest rate marketization are the long-term path that China should follow.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124.7

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