【摘要】：經(jīng)濟周期理論是宏觀經(jīng)濟研究中的一個重要組成部分。改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟是在一個又一個周期波動中發(fā)展的。影響經(jīng)濟波動的因素有很多，其中固定資產(chǎn)投資的波動發(fā)揮著重要作用。因此，研究我國經(jīng)濟周期與固定資產(chǎn)投資的關系具有很重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文從歷史的角度對改革開放以來我國經(jīng)濟周期波動及各階段中固定資產(chǎn)投資概況進行了闡述、分析，并選取1978—2011年的國民經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)對上述兩項進行實證研究。研究表明長期以來我國經(jīng)濟周期波動與固定資產(chǎn)投資存在著長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關系和短期內的動態(tài)均衡機制。此外，通過VAR模型，本文刻畫了固定資產(chǎn)投資沖擊對經(jīng)濟波動的作用大小和時間軌跡。同時，為監(jiān)控固定資產(chǎn)投資從而平抑經(jīng)濟波動，，文章通過主成分分析法篩選了5個固定資產(chǎn)投資先行指標，并建立了其先行合成指數(shù)。文章最后一章提出了促進經(jīng)濟與固定資產(chǎn)投資的良性互動，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Business cycle theory is an important part of macroeconomic research. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy is in one cycle after another in the development of fluctuations. There are many factors that affect economic fluctuation, among which the fluctuation of fixed assets investment plays an important role. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between economic cycle and fixed asset investment in China. From the historical point of view, this paper expounds the fluctuation of China's economic cycle and fixed asset investment in various stages since the reform and opening up, analyzes the situation, and selects the national economic statistical data from 1978 to 2011 to carry on the empirical research on the above two items. The study shows that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and a short-term dynamic equilibrium mechanism between the economic cycle fluctuation and fixed asset investment in China for a long time. In addition, through the VAR model, this paper describes the impact of fixed asset investment on economic fluctuations and the time track. At the same time, in order to monitor the fixed asset investment and stabilize the economic fluctuation, this paper selects five leading indexes of fixed asset investment by principal component analysis, and establishes its antecedent composite index. In the last chapter, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the positive interaction between economy and fixed assets investment and to realize the sustained and stable economic growth.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.8

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 杜晶;固定資產(chǎn)投資周期和經(jīng)濟周期關系的實證研究[D];東北財經(jīng)大學;2015年

本文編號：2403490