發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-12 00:19

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響及對策分析　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國際原油定價(jià)權(quán) 中國經(jīng)濟(jì) 國際油價(jià)

【摘要】：中國現(xiàn)已成為世界第二大原油消費(fèi)國和進(jìn)口國,2012年中國原油消費(fèi)量達(dá)到4.7億噸,原油進(jìn)口年增長率超過7%。但一直以來,中國不僅沒能享受消費(fèi)大國應(yīng)有的“消費(fèi)者剩余價(jià)值”,反而面臨原油進(jìn)口價(jià)格高于國際均價(jià),被動接受國際油價(jià)變動的尷尬現(xiàn)狀。在原油消費(fèi)對外依賴程度不斷走高背景下,由于國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)的缺失,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)受到了嚴(yán)重的損失。因此,對國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失問題的深入研究對于進(jìn)一步改革中國原油市場,合理地制定能源戰(zhàn)略,保證國民經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定、快速、持續(xù)增長,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文采用定性和定量相結(jié)合的研究方法,從理論和實(shí)證兩方面對國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)及其缺失對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行了分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明由于缺失國際原油定價(jià)權(quán),中國只能被動接受國際原油市場價(jià)格的波動,無法對其產(chǎn)生影響。本文進(jìn)一步構(gòu)建灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型和向量自回歸模型,研究國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的重大影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：國際原油價(jià)格與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、物價(jià)水平、消費(fèi)及投資之間均存在長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,國際原油價(jià)格的上漲使得國內(nèi)物價(jià)水平上漲,居民消費(fèi)及投資水平下降,抑制了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 本文研究認(rèn)為,中國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)缺失的主要原因有：國內(nèi)原油供需缺口大,剛性需求導(dǎo)致原油消費(fèi)進(jìn)口依賴程度高；技術(shù)限制使得國內(nèi)原油供需缺口的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大;國際原油定價(jià)體系不能有效反映中國原油的供需狀況；國內(nèi)石油行業(yè)制度及較高的原油進(jìn)口集中度,不利于國內(nèi)石油企業(yè)參加國際原油市場的競爭。綜上分析,中國應(yīng)充分把握造成中國缺失國際原油定價(jià)權(quán)的各種供求和非供求因素,抓住機(jī)遇,創(chuàng)新機(jī)制,發(fā)展期貨市場,加強(qiáng)石油儲備,改革原油及成品油國內(nèi)價(jià)格機(jī)制,積極發(fā)展替代能源,短期內(nèi)謀求減小缺失原油定價(jià)權(quán)給中國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的不良影響,中長期謀求穩(wěn)步提升國際原油定價(jià)話語權(quán)。
[Abstract]:China is now the world's second-largest consumer and importer of crude oil, with crude oil consumption reaching 470 million tons in 2012, and crude oil imports growing at an annual rate of more than 7. China has not only failed to enjoy the "consumer surplus value" that the big consumer should have, but also faced the problem that the import price of crude oil is higher than the international average price. Passive acceptance of the embarrassing situation of international oil price changes. Under the background of increasing dependence on crude oil consumption, due to the lack of pricing power of international crude oil, China's economy has suffered serious losses. The in-depth study on the lack of pricing power of international crude oil will further reform the Chinese crude oil market, rationally formulate the energy strategy, and ensure the stability, rapid and sustained growth of the national economy. It has important theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. This paper analyzes the influence of international crude oil pricing power and its deficiency on China's economy from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The empirical results show that the lack of international crude oil pricing power is due to the lack of international crude oil pricing power. China can only passively accept the fluctuation of the international crude oil market price, but can not have an impact on it. This paper further constructs the grey correlation model and the vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between the international crude oil price and China's economic growth, price level, consumption and investment. The rise of the international crude oil price makes the domestic price level rise and the resident consumption and investment level drop, which inhibits the economic growth. In this paper, the main reasons for the lack of pricing power in China and international crude oil are as follows: the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap is large, and the rigid demand leads to a high degree of dependence on crude oil consumption and import; The technical restriction makes the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap expand further; The international crude oil pricing system can not effectively reflect the supply and demand of Chinese crude oil; Domestic petroleum industry system and high concentration of crude oil imports are not conducive to domestic oil enterprises to participate in the international crude oil market competition. China should fully grasp all kinds of supply and demand factors that cause the lack of international crude oil pricing power in China, seize the opportunity, innovate the mechanism, develop the futures market and strengthen the petroleum reserve. To reform the domestic price mechanism of crude oil and refined oil, to actively develop alternative energy sources, to reduce the negative impact on China's economy caused by the lack of pricing power of crude oil in the short term, and to steadily promote the right of international crude oil pricing in the medium and long term.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124;F426.22

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