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  本文關鍵詞：國際原油定價權缺失對中國經濟的影響及對策分析　出處：《武漢理工大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 國際原油定價權 中國經濟 國際油價

【摘要】：中國現(xiàn)已成為世界第二大原油消費國和進口國,2012年中國原油消費量達到4.7億噸,原油進口年增長率超過7%。但一直以來,中國不僅沒能享受消費大國應有的“消費者剩余價值”,反而面臨原油進口價格高于國際均價,被動接受國際油價變動的尷尬現(xiàn)狀。在原油消費對外依賴程度不斷走高背景下,由于國際原油定價權的缺失,中國經濟受到了嚴重的損失。因此,對國際原油定價權缺失問題的深入研究對于進一步改革中國原油市場,合理地制定能源戰(zhàn)略,保證國民經濟穩(wěn)定、快速、持續(xù)增長,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文采用定性和定量相結合的研究方法,從理論和實證兩方面對國際原油定價權及其缺失對中國經濟的影響進行了分析。實證結果表明由于缺失國際原油定價權,中國只能被動接受國際原油市場價格的波動,無法對其產生影響。本文進一步構建灰色關聯(lián)度模型和向量自回歸模型,研究國際原油定價權缺失對中國經濟產生的重大影響。實證結果表明：國際原油價格與中國經濟增長、物價水平、消費及投資之間均存在長期穩(wěn)定關系,國際原油價格的上漲使得國內物價水平上漲,居民消費及投資水平下降,抑制了經濟增長。 本文研究認為,中國際原油定價權缺失的主要原因有：國內原油供需缺口大,剛性需求導致原油消費進口依賴程度高；技術限制使得國內原油供需缺口的進一步擴大;國際原油定價體系不能有效反映中國原油的供需狀況；國內石油行業(yè)制度及較高的原油進口集中度,不利于國內石油企業(yè)參加國際原油市場的競爭。綜上分析,中國應充分把握造成中國缺失國際原油定價權的各種供求和非供求因素,抓住機遇,創(chuàng)新機制,發(fā)展期貨市場,加強石油儲備,改革原油及成品油國內價格機制,積極發(fā)展替代能源,短期內謀求減小缺失原油定價權給中國經濟帶來的不良影響,中長期謀求穩(wěn)步提升國際原油定價話語權。
[Abstract]:China is now the world's second-largest consumer and importer of crude oil, with crude oil consumption reaching 470 million tons in 2012, and crude oil imports growing at an annual rate of more than 7. China has not only failed to enjoy the "consumer surplus value" that the big consumer should have, but also faced the problem that the import price of crude oil is higher than the international average price. Passive acceptance of the embarrassing situation of international oil price changes. Under the background of increasing dependence on crude oil consumption, due to the lack of pricing power of international crude oil, China's economy has suffered serious losses. The in-depth study on the lack of pricing power of international crude oil will further reform the Chinese crude oil market, rationally formulate the energy strategy, and ensure the stability, rapid and sustained growth of the national economy. It has important theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. This paper analyzes the influence of international crude oil pricing power and its deficiency on China's economy from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The empirical results show that the lack of international crude oil pricing power is due to the lack of international crude oil pricing power. China can only passively accept the fluctuation of the international crude oil market price, but can not have an impact on it. This paper further constructs the grey correlation model and the vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between the international crude oil price and China's economic growth, price level, consumption and investment. The rise of the international crude oil price makes the domestic price level rise and the resident consumption and investment level drop, which inhibits the economic growth. In this paper, the main reasons for the lack of pricing power in China and international crude oil are as follows: the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap is large, and the rigid demand leads to a high degree of dependence on crude oil consumption and import; The technical restriction makes the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap expand further; The international crude oil pricing system can not effectively reflect the supply and demand of Chinese crude oil; Domestic petroleum industry system and high concentration of crude oil imports are not conducive to domestic oil enterprises to participate in the international crude oil market competition. China should fully grasp all kinds of supply and demand factors that cause the lack of international crude oil pricing power in China, seize the opportunity, innovate the mechanism, develop the futures market and strengthen the petroleum reserve. To reform the domestic price mechanism of crude oil and refined oil, to actively develop alternative energy sources, to reduce the negative impact on China's economy caused by the lack of pricing power of crude oil in the short term, and to steadily promote the right of international crude oil pricing in the medium and long term.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124;F426.22

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本文編號：1411870