本文選題：“一帶一路”　切入點：石油生產(chǎn)　出處：《資源科學》2017年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：隨著國家"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略的推進,中國與沿線國家的貿(mào)易往來日益緊密,石油資源作為重要的戰(zhàn)略能源在區(qū)域合作中尤為重要�；诨セ莼ダ瓌t,本文對沿線產(chǎn)油國的經(jīng)濟增長與石油生產(chǎn)和石油貿(mào)易的關系進行了定量分析,目的是揭示各國經(jīng)濟增長與石油供需之間的作用機理,尋求兼顧中國與沿線各國石油資源貿(mào)易的合作策略。本研究整理了2000-2015年"一帶一路"沿線產(chǎn)油國的經(jīng)濟增長、石油產(chǎn)量和石油貿(mào)易量數(shù)據(jù),運用格蘭杰因果檢驗法、VAR模型和脈沖響應分析,對"一帶一路"沿線21個產(chǎn)油國的經(jīng)濟增長、石油生產(chǎn)、石油貿(mào)易三者間的動態(tài)趨同關系進行評估。結果表明,三個變量間的動態(tài)關系存在三種明顯不同的模式,即循環(huán)因果關系(三種變量之間存在顯著的接替性循環(huán)變化)、互為因果關系(兩種變量之間存在一種或兩種顯著的雙向交替變化)和單向因果關系(兩種變量之間僅存在一種顯著的先后變化)。結合中國國情和模型檢驗結果,本文提出了差異化的中國石油貿(mào)易合作策略,即:采用石油貿(mào)易合作,人才、技術資源輸出等方式,推動中國與"一帶一路"沿線產(chǎn)油國的石油資源貿(mào)易;重點加強中國-中亞-西亞經(jīng)濟帶和新亞歐經(jīng)濟帶的建設,并制定優(yōu)先合作策略,有利于緩解中國石油供給安全壓力,確保"一帶一路"倡議的順利實施。
[Abstract]:With the promotion of China's "Belt and Road" strategy, China's trade relations with countries along the route have become increasingly close. Oil resources, as an important strategic energy source, are particularly important in regional cooperation. Based on the principle of mutual benefit, This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between economic growth, oil production and oil trade in oil-producing countries along the route. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the mechanism between economic growth and oil supply and demand in various countries. This study collates the data of economic growth, oil production and oil trade volume of oil producing countries along Belt and Road from 2000 to 2015. By using Granger causality test method and impulse response analysis, the dynamic convergence relationship among 21 oil-producing countries along "Belt and Road", including economic growth, oil production and oil trade, is evaluated. There are three distinct patterns of dynamic relationships between the three variables. That is, cyclic causality (there are significant successive cyclic changes between the three variables, mutual causality (there is one or two significant bidirectional alternation between the two variables) and unidirectional causality (between the two variables). There is only one significant sequence of changes. Combined with China's national conditions and the results of model testing, This paper puts forward the differential strategy of China's petroleum trade cooperation, that is, to promote the oil resource trade between China and the oil-producing countries along "Belt and Road" by means of petroleum trade cooperation, talent and technical resource export. Strengthening the construction of China-Central Asia West Asia economic belt and the new Asia-Europe economic belt and formulating the priority cooperation strategy will help to alleviate the pressure on China's oil supply security and ensure the smooth implementation of Belt and Road's initiative.
【作者單位】： 中國科學院地理科學與資源研究所;中國科學院大學;
【基金】：科技部國家重點研發(fā)計劃“全球變化及應對”專項(2016YFA0602802) 國家自然科學基金重點項目(71633006)
【分類號】：F113;F416.22;F742

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