本文關(guān)鍵詞： 前瞻性 貨幣政策 貨幣政策規(guī)則 泰勒規(guī)則　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前包括美國(guó)、日本、英國(guó)、新西蘭以及歐元區(qū)等在內(nèi)的較多國(guó)家和地區(qū)都對(duì)具有前瞻性的貨幣政策進(jìn)行了實(shí)踐。前瞻性貨幣政策之所以在較多國(guó)家得到實(shí)踐,是因?yàn)樗�能夠在某些方面�?duì)傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策進(jìn)行改善,如在解決貨幣政策動(dòng)態(tài)不一致問題上,解決貨幣政策時(shí)滯性問題上以及解決低利率下限約束問題上都卓有成效。2012年后我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)開始步入“新常態(tài)”,產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)由高速轉(zhuǎn)入中高速,同時(shí)面臨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失調(diào)以及收入結(jié)構(gòu)失衡等多重結(jié)構(gòu)性問題。此外,我們也注意到央行存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率也降至改革開放后的歷史低位,傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策的作用空間受到局限,因此結(jié)合前瞻性貨幣政策在國(guó)外的實(shí)踐以及我國(guó)的客觀國(guó)情,本文認(rèn)為有必要對(duì)前瞻性貨幣政策進(jìn)行研究。文章第一部分對(duì)本文的寫作背景進(jìn)行了說(shuō)明,并對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)的研究成果進(jìn)行了梳理分析。在文章第二部分首先對(duì)前瞻性貨幣政策進(jìn)行了概述,主要包括前瞻性貨幣政策的概念、前瞻性貨幣政策的分類以及前瞻性貨幣政策的作用機(jī)制;然后對(duì)前瞻性貨幣政策理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行了分析;文章第三部分對(duì)前瞻性貨幣政策規(guī)則進(jìn)行了理論說(shuō)明;在第四部分對(duì)前瞻性在主要發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的實(shí)踐進(jìn)行了歸納。文章第三部分首先對(duì)我國(guó)改革開放后的貨幣政策進(jìn)行了梳理,然后對(duì)在我國(guó)實(shí)施前瞻性貨幣政策的必要性和可行性進(jìn)行了分析。文章第四部分通過(guò)構(gòu)建附加利率平滑的前瞻性貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù),對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策的前瞻性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)貨幣政策確實(shí)存在對(duì)通貨膨脹和產(chǎn)出缺口的前瞻性。本章最后部分根據(jù)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果從提高利率對(duì)通貨膨脹反應(yīng)程度、進(jìn)一步健全利率調(diào)控體系、推進(jìn)貨幣政策向價(jià)格型轉(zhuǎn)變、提高貨幣政策透明度以及將前瞻性泰勒規(guī)則納入我國(guó)貨幣政策框架五個(gè)方面對(duì)進(jìn)一步完善我國(guó)前瞻性貨幣政策給出了建議。
[Abstract]:At present, more countries and regions, including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and the euro zone, have carried out forward-looking monetary policies. The reason that forward-looking monetary policy has been put into practice in more countries is that. Because it can improve traditional monetary policy in some ways, such as addressing inconsistencies in monetary policy dynamics, After 2012, China's macro-economy began to enter the "new normal", the output growth changed from high to medium high speed, and at the same time, the industrial structure was out of balance. Regional economic structure imbalance and income structure imbalance are many structural problems. In addition, we also note that the central bank's benchmark interest rate on deposits and loans has also dropped to historic lows since the reform and opening up, and that the role of traditional monetary policy is limited. Therefore, combined with the practice of forward-looking monetary policy in foreign countries and the objective situation of our country, this paper holds that it is necessary to study the forward-looking monetary policy. In the second part of the article, the author summarizes the forward-looking monetary policy, including the concept of forward-looking monetary policy. The classification of forward-looking monetary policy and the mechanism of forward-looking monetary policy; then the theoretical basis of forward-looking monetary policy is analyzed. In the 4th part, the author summarized the forward-looking practice in the major developed countries. The third part of the article first combed the monetary policy after China's reform and opening up. Then it analyzes the necessity and feasibility of implementing forward-looking monetary policy in China. Part 4th, by constructing a smooth forward-looking monetary policy response function with additional interest rates, empirically tests the forward-looking monetary policy in China. It is found that China's monetary policy is indeed forward-looking in terms of inflation and output gap. The last part of this chapter is based on the results of empirical tests to improve the interest rate response to inflation and further improve the interest rate control system. Some suggestions on how to further perfect China's forward-looking monetary policy are put forward from five aspects: promoting the transformation of monetary policy to price type, enhancing the transparency of monetary policy and incorporating the forward-looking Taylor rule into the framework of China's monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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