發(fā)布時間：2018-02-24 23:07

  本文關鍵詞： 京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展 經濟周期同步性 政策建議　出處：《首都經濟貿易大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：經濟周期的同步性是衡量區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展的綜合性指標,因此研究經濟周期同步性對于一國宏觀經濟政策的制定意義深遠。目前,國內外學者的研究主要集中在國家與國家之間經濟周期的同步性上,也有部分學者針對某一個國家的區(qū)域經濟周期同步性進行研究,但后者的研究大多數是基于全國所有區(qū)域的角度,并沒有針對某一個具體的區(qū)域。因此,本文嘗試從具體的區(qū)域——京津冀區(qū)域出發(fā),對經濟周期同步性進行研究。本文選取我國1978-2015年間的經濟數據,采用HP濾波方法和馬爾科夫區(qū)制轉移模型對京津冀三地區(qū)經濟周期同步性進行實證研究,結合京津冀經濟發(fā)展的現狀以及同步性的現實條件,揭示京津冀三地經濟周期的區(qū)制特征以及經濟周期的同步程度。研究結果表明:第一,京津冀三地經濟周期較為同步。主要變現為京津冀經濟周期同步性系數較大并且兩兩之間較為接近,經濟增長階段也大致相同,三地經濟周期都具有不對稱性,均是“擴張期”的持續(xù)期較長。第二,京津冀經濟周期同步具有一定差異性,其中河北省和北京市的同步性較弱,北京市和天津市的同步性較強。主要表現為:從京津冀地區(qū)經濟周期階段劃分來看,北京市和天津市的經濟周期階段大體一致,而河北省的經濟周期階段略有不同,其周期長度較短,以及對京津冀區(qū)制的劃分,可以得出京津的“擴張期”較長,河北省的“擴張期”較短。第三,京津冀地區(qū)和全國的經濟周期同步性較強。主要表現為:根據經濟周期階段的劃分,二者較為相近,并且波動幅度均較大;測算出的經濟周期同步系數也較大,接近為1。本文基于以上實證的結論以及結合京津冀經濟發(fā)展的現狀,提出以下幾點建議:第一:應該優(yōu)化河北省的產業(yè)結構,提高在第三產業(yè)中的投資比例。第二,應該努力加大向河北省政策傾斜的力度,構建京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的財政機制。第三,應該減少京津冀地區(qū)經濟周期的大幅波動,促進經濟周期的平穩(wěn)運行。
[Abstract]:The synchronism of economic cycle is a comprehensive index to measure regional coordinated development. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the synchronism of economic cycle for the formulation of macroeconomic policy in a country. The researches of domestic and foreign scholars mainly focus on the synchronism of economic cycles between countries, and some scholars also study the synchronism of regional economic cycles of a certain country. However, most of the research on the latter is based on the angle of all regions in the country, and it is not aimed at a specific region. Therefore, this paper tries to start from the specific region-Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. This paper selects the economic data from 1978 to 2015 in China, adopts HP filtering method and Markov region system transfer model to make an empirical study on the synchronism of economic cycle in the three regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Combined with the present situation of the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the realistic conditions of synchronism, this paper reveals the regional characteristics of the three economic cycles of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the degree of synchronization of the economic cycles. The results show that: first, The economic cycles of the three places of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are more synchronous. The main realization is that the synchronicity coefficient of the economic cycles of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is relatively large and close to each other, and the economic growth stage is roughly the same, and the economic cycles in the three places are all asymmetrical. Second, the synchronism of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic cycle is different to a certain extent, and the synchronism between Hebei and Beijing is weak. The synchronization between Beijing and Tianjin is relatively strong. The main manifestations are as follows: according to the division of the economic cycle stages in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the economic cycle stages of Beijing and Tianjin are roughly the same, while the economic cycle stages in Hebei Province are slightly different. The period is short, and the division of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region system shows that the "expansion period" in Beijing and Tianjin is longer, and the "expansion period" in Hebei Province is shorter. Third, The economic cycles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and in the whole country are in strong synchronism. The main manifestations are: according to the division of the economic cycle stages, the two are relatively close, and the amplitude of fluctuation is large; the measured economic cycle synchronization coefficient is also larger. Based on the above conclusions and the current situation of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei province, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, we should optimize the industrial structure of Hebei Province and increase the proportion of investment in the tertiary industry. Efforts should be made to increase the inclination to the policies of Hebei Province and to build a fiscal mechanism for the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Thirdly, the sharp fluctuations of the economic cycle in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should be reduced and the smooth operation of the economic cycle should be promoted.
【學位授予單位】：首都經濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 杜群陽,宋玉華;東亞經濟周期與次區(qū)域經濟周期存在性檢驗[J];國際貿易問題;2005年08期

2 魏國江;;經濟周期與波動對經濟平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的影響分析[J];商業(yè)經濟;2006年09期

3 吳江;;論中國經濟周期理論研究的發(fā)展[J];商業(yè)時代;2008年15期

4 吳瑞賢;;經濟周期與房地產波動的關系研究分析[J];知識經濟;2010年19期

5 劉小麗;;改革開放以來我國的經濟周期及其成因[J];中國商界(上半月);2010年09期

6 戴鳳禮,趙炳元;如何認識經濟周期的作用——兼評兩種與此有關的觀點[J];淮北煤師院學報(哲學社會科學版);2002年01期

7 劉小怡;“新經濟”與經濟周期[J];廣西經濟管理干部學院學報;2002年02期

8 曹曉虹;廣東省經濟周期的分析對比[J];廣東商學院學報;2002年S1期

9 薛吳健,張文科;經濟周期的熱力循環(huán)方法分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2003年04期

10 薛吳健,董穎穎,張文科;經濟周期的熱力學方法分析[J];西安聯合大學學報;2003年02期

相關會議論文 前3條

1 關權;王漢儒;;戰(zhàn)后美國經濟周期演化的經濟學分析——對次貸危機的另一種解釋[A];世界近現代史研究（第六輯）[C];2009年

2 李秉文;王偉;;我國的經濟周期性調控與蘭州經濟發(fā)展[A];甘肅成人教育協(xié)會2008年年會論文集[C];2008年

3 尚維;楊曉光;徐山鷹;張s，

本文編號：1532063