本文選題：林業(yè)PMI指數(shù) + 時差相關(guān)分析��； 參考：《統(tǒng)計與決策》2017年08期

【摘要】：林業(yè)PMI是我國乃至全球范圍內(nèi)第一個監(jiān)測林業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行態(tài)勢的月度指標(biāo),其科學(xué)性和領(lǐng)先性決定了它的實踐和應(yīng)用價值。文章使用時差互相關(guān)分析檢驗了林業(yè)PMI及其進(jìn)出口指數(shù)的領(lǐng)先性,結(jié)果顯示林業(yè)PMI領(lǐng)先于我國木材加工行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)1個月感知行業(yè)運(yùn)行走勢,林業(yè)PMI出口指數(shù)領(lǐng)先海關(guān)出口數(shù)據(jù)0~1個月,林業(yè)PMI進(jìn)口指數(shù)領(lǐng)先海關(guān)進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)1~3個月。
[Abstract]:Forestry PMI is the first monthly index to monitor forestry economic running situation in our country and even the whole world. Its scientific nature and leading character determine its practice and application value. The paper tests the forerunner of forestry PMI and its import and export index by means of time difference cross-correlation analysis. The results show that forestry PMI is ahead of China's timber processing industry data in one month's perceived operation trend. The forestry PMI export index leads the customs export data by 0 ~ 1 month, and the forestry PMI import index leads the customs import data by 1 ~ 3 months.
【作者單位】： 中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;中國林業(yè)科學(xué)研究院科信所;北京林業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國際熱帶木材組織(ITTO)項目(TFL-PD 017/09 Rev.2(M))
【分類號】：F326.2
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本文編號：1898407