【摘要】：資本周期也稱(chēng)朱格拉周期,主要是資本支出波動(dòng)引起的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)周期四個(gè)階段的演變,大宗商品價(jià)格也呈現(xiàn)周期性波動(dòng)。根據(jù)美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和大宗商品的實(shí)證研究可以發(fā)現(xiàn),國(guó)際大宗商品的周期性波動(dòng)較為明顯,在過(guò)熱、滯脹階段,能源類(lèi)大宗商品和工業(yè)品的走勢(shì)出現(xiàn)較為明顯的分化,即能源類(lèi)的收益明顯優(yōu)于工業(yè)品。根據(jù)中國(guó)資本周期和國(guó)內(nèi)大宗商品的波動(dòng)研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)大宗商品滬銅和滬膠的周期性較為明顯,而大豆的周期性不明顯。
[Abstract]:The capital cycle is also called the Zhuguela cycle, which is mainly caused by the fluctuation of capital expenditure. With the evolution of the four stages of the economic cycle, commodity prices also show cyclical fluctuations. According to the empirical study of the American economic cycle and commodities, we can find that the cyclical fluctuations of international commodities are more obvious, and in the stage of overheating and stagflation, the trend of energy commodities and industrial products appears more obvious differentiation. That is, the income of the energy category is obviously better than the industrial products. Based on the study of the fluctuation of Chinese capital cycle and domestic commodities, it is found that the periodicity of Shanghai copper and Shanghai glue is obvious, but the periodicity of soybean is not obvious.
【作者單位】： 新湖期貨研究所;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831;F713.35;F224

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