本文選題：入境旅游 + 引力模型��； 參考：《海南大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展和國際貿(mào)易自由化趨勢的加強,各個國家之間日益密切的交流推動了旅游經(jīng)濟的迅速發(fā)展。同時,伴隨著人們整體收入水平的提高,世界各國的人們更加關注于旅游,以滿足高層次的精神需求,使得旅游業(yè)已經(jīng)逐步成為世界經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。我國自改革開放以來,吸取并且借鑒國外的旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)驗,利用我國豐富的自然資源和人文資源,促進了旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模的不斷擴大,并且取得了輝煌的成就,使我國逐漸成為國際旅游貿(mào)易大國。然而,我國的經(jīng)濟和社會都融入了全球化的浪潮中,入境旅游不可避免的面臨著來自國際的激烈競爭,再加上旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的易波動性,容易受到諸多外在因素的影響,弱化了我國入境旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)在國際上的競爭力。因此,深入分析影響我國入境旅游的各個因素,并且在此基礎上,對如何促進我國入境旅游的快速發(fā)展進行研究具有相當?shù)木o迫性和必要性。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外關于入境旅游的研究進行了歸納和總結(jié),接著根據(jù)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)歸納分析了出我國近十一年來的入境旅游發(fā)展狀況,并且定性的對我國入境旅游的影響因素進行分析。其次,針對影響我國入境旅游的經(jīng)濟變量和非經(jīng)濟變量,收集了日本、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、美國等十一個我國主要的客源國家近十一年的相關數(shù)據(jù),對影響我國入境旅游的因素進行實證分析,并且采用剔除法對影響不顯著的因素進行剔除,構(gòu)建出適合我國入境旅游的引力模型,并且可以測算出各個因素影響我國入境旅游的程度大小。研究結(jié)果表明,量化后的文化距離和匯率對我國入境旅游影響不顯著,客源國家和我國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、奧運會和世博會的召開對我國入境旅游產(chǎn)生積極的影響,空間距離、我國旅游產(chǎn)品的價格、非典和國際金融危機的爆發(fā)則與我國入境旅游呈負相關。最后,通過對實證研究的結(jié)果,本文從合理價格的制定、完善的危機管理機制、拓寬入境旅游渠道、關注客源國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展變化和加強自身經(jīng)濟建設這五個方面對我國入境旅游的持續(xù)、健康、快速發(fā)展提出了相關的政策意見和建議,以增強我國旅游業(yè)在國際市場上的競爭力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economy and the strengthening of the trend of international trade liberalization, the increasingly close communication between various countries has promoted the rapid development of tourism economy. At the same time, with the improvement of people's overall income level, people all over the world pay more attention to tourism in order to meet the high level of spiritual needs, so that tourism has gradually become the pillar industry of the world economy. Since the reform and opening up, our country has absorbed and used for reference the experience of the development of foreign tourism industry, utilized the rich natural resources and human resources of our country, promoted the continuous expansion of the scale of the tourism industry, and obtained the glorious achievement. Make our country gradually become a big country of international tourism trade. However, the economy and society of our country are all integrated into the tide of globalization. The inbound tourism inevitably faces fierce competition from the international community. In addition, the volatility of the tourism industry is easy to be influenced by many external factors. Weakened the international competitiveness of China's inbound tourism industry. Therefore, it is of great urgency and necessity to study how to promote the rapid development of inbound tourism in China. This paper first summarizes the research on inbound tourism at home and abroad, and then, according to the statistical data, summarizes and analyzes the development of inbound tourism in China in the past 11 years. And qualitative analysis of the impact factors of inbound tourism in China. Secondly, in view of the economic and non-economic variables that affect China's inbound tourism, the relevant data of 11 major tourist countries in China, such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and the United States, have been collected over the past 11 years. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting inbound tourism in China, and adopts the elimination method to remove the factors that are not significant, and constructs a gravitational model suitable for inbound tourism in China. And can measure each factor to affect the degree of our country's inbound tourism. The results show that the quantitative cultural distance and exchange rate have no significant impact on China's inbound tourism. The gross domestic product (GDP) of tourist countries and China, the Olympic Games and the holding of the World Expo have a positive impact on the inbound tourism in China. The price of tourism products, SARS and the outbreak of international financial crisis are negatively correlated with inbound tourism in China. Finally, through the empirical research results, this article from the reasonable price formulation, the perfect crisis management mechanism, broadens the inbound tourism channel, In order to enhance the competitiveness of China's tourism industry in the international market, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions and suggestions on the sustained, healthy and rapid development of inbound tourism from the five aspects of paying close attention to the economic development and changes of guest countries and strengthening their own economic construction.
【學位授予單位】：海南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592

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