發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-29 18:45

【摘要】：近年來(lái),中國(guó)政府高度重視石油和天然氣管道的運(yùn)輸,到2012年中國(guó)管道的總里程快速發(fā)展已經(jīng)達(dá)到了7.1萬(wàn)千米。管道運(yùn)輸已成為陸上油氣運(yùn)輸?shù)闹饕�方式。隨著西氣東輸二線(xiàn)天然氣主干管道的建設(shè),以及西部石油(成品油)管道項(xiàng)目的運(yùn)營(yíng),我國(guó)研究范圍內(nèi)的石油和天然氣管網(wǎng)已迅速擴(kuò)大。然而,現(xiàn)有管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依舊存在,不排除一些安全隱患的問(wèn)題,相應(yīng)的監(jiān)管體制和法律法規(guī)體系不完善。壽光-東營(yíng)天然氣支干線(xiàn)工程位于山東省濰坊市和東營(yíng)市建設(shè)單位為山東魯潤(rùn)天然氣有限公。該工程項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)于2015年1月輸氣使用,使用后輸氣量達(dá)10.03億立方。天然氣管線(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一項(xiàng)重要的任務(wù),其一定要在項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)行之前有一個(gè)整體的評(píng)價(jià),以便于進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃、決策與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制。有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估能夠促進(jìn)項(xiàng)目承建單位的各類(lèi)資源合理配置,規(guī)避投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),充分發(fā)揮投資效益最大化。本文采用列舉法、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素預(yù)先分析法、事件樹(shù)分析等方法,對(duì)壽光—東營(yíng)天然氣支干線(xiàn)工程實(shí)施過(guò)程中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行了研究,在對(duì)相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,系統(tǒng)分析了實(shí)施項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、評(píng)估、應(yīng)對(duì)和監(jiān)控,最后對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。通過(guò)本文的研究,旨在找出項(xiàng)目實(shí)施中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并進(jìn)行合理管控,進(jìn)而確保項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施。本文首先系統(tǒng)論述了管道項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本的理論體系與依據(jù),并對(duì)壽光-東營(yíng)天然氣工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了一定的分析。之后具體開(kāi)展了壽光-東營(yíng)天然氣工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),從內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目作出了具體的評(píng)估,最后提出了具體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在壽光-東營(yíng)天然氣管道工程建設(shè)中從決策階段到投產(chǎn)始終存在,通過(guò)對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果中可以看出,此項(xiàng)目的總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別是高;在工程項(xiàng)目的六大類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)當(dāng)中,從高到低進(jìn)行依次排序建設(shè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高,其次是經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),再次是政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn),審批風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度一般,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度是最小的。本文在評(píng)估之后提出了工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)具體措施,使風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得到全過(guò)程控制,確保壽光-東營(yíng)天然氣工程建設(shè)項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施,達(dá)到預(yù)期效益。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the Chinese government has attached great importance to the transportation of oil and gas pipelines. By 2012, the total mileage of the pipeline in China had reached 71,000 kilometers. Pipeline transportation has become the main way of onshore oil and gas transportation. With the construction of natural gas trunk pipeline in West to East Gas Transmission Line and the operation of West China Petroleum (refined Oil) pipeline project, the oil and gas pipeline network in our country has been expanded rapidly. However, the existing pipeline risks still exist, not excluding some hidden safety problems, the corresponding regulatory system and laws and regulations system is not perfect. Shouguang-Dongying natural gas branch project is located in Weifang City and Dongying City Shandong Province construction unit for Shandong Lurun Natural Gas Co. The project is expected to be used in January 2015, after the use of 1.003 billion cubic meters of gas. Risk management of natural gas pipeline is an important task. It must have an overall evaluation before the project is carried out, so as to facilitate the planning, decision making and risk control of the project. Effective risk assessment can promote the rational allocation of all kinds of resources, avoid investment risk and maximize investment benefit. In this paper, the risk management in the implementation of Shouguang-Dongying Natural Gas Branch Project is studied by the methods of enumeration, pre-analysis of risk factors and event tree analysis, and based on the analysis of relevant risk management theory, The risk identification, evaluation, response and monitoring of the implementation project are systematically analyzed. Finally, the risk management of the development project is evaluated. Through the research of this paper, the aim is to find out the risk in the implementation of the project and manage it reasonably, so as to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. In this paper, the basic theory system and basis of pipeline project risk management are systematically discussed, and the construction project of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas project is analyzed. Then the risk identification and risk evaluation of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas construction project are carried out. The concrete assessment of the project is made from the internal risk and external risk. Finally, the concrete risk countermeasures are put forward. The risk always exists in the construction of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas pipeline project from the decision-making stage to the commissioning. The overall risk level of the project is high through the risk evaluation results of the project. Among the six kinds of risks, the construction risk is the highest, the economic risk and financing risk is the next, the policy risk is the second, the risk degree of the examination and approval risk is general, and the risk degree of risk decision is the smallest. This paper puts forward the concrete measures to deal with the project risk after evaluation, so that the risk can be controlled in the whole process to ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Shouguang-Dongying natural gas project and achieve the expected benefit.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TE88

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