【摘要】：成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運是應(yīng)對各類災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資保障的重要內(nèi)容.本文運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論,研究影響成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運效率的主要因素。按照運輸方式將成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運劃分為管道運輸、鐵路運輸、公路運輸和水路運輸四種,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并以2008年汶川特大地震發(fā)生后中國石油集團成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運活動為例,進行仿真驗證。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運過程中,石油企業(yè)提升保障輸油管道安全的能力,可以有效增加管道運輸速率;石油企業(yè)在政府的統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)下,加強與鐵路部門、水路部門的溝通協(xié)調(diào),可以有效提升鐵路運輸和水路運輸效率;采用以上三個應(yīng)急調(diào)運策略,可以大幅度提升成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運能力.此外,通過提升公路運輸速率,無法顯著增強成品油應(yīng)急調(diào)運能力,但是可以作為一個可供選擇的策略.
[Abstract]:The emergency transportation of finished oil is an important part of emergency material support for all kinds of disasters. Based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper studies the main factors that affect the efficiency of emergency transportation of refined oil. According to the transportation mode, the product oil emergency transportation is divided into four types: pipeline transportation, railway transportation, road transportation and waterway transportation. On this basis, the system dynamics model of product oil emergency transportation is constructed. After the Wenchuan earthquake occurred in 2008, the simulation was carried out to verify the emergency transportation of finished oil products of China National Petroleum Group. It is found that in the process of emergency transportation of refined oil, oil enterprises can enhance the ability to ensure the safety of oil pipelines, which can effectively increase the transportation rate of pipelines; Under the overall coordination of the government, the petroleum enterprises can enhance the efficiency of railway transportation and waterway transportation effectively by strengthening the communication and coordination with the railway and waterway departments. By adopting the above three emergency dispatching strategies, the capacity of product oil emergency transportation can be greatly improved. In addition, it can not significantly enhance the capacity of oil product emergency transportation, but it can be used as an alternative strategy by increasing the speed of road transportation.
【作者單位】： 北京理工大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目(71473015)~~
【分類號】：F426.22

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