發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-25 12:18

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,電力作為一種社會(huì)基礎(chǔ)能源的供應(yīng)量也在與日俱增。電力負(fù)荷嚴(yán)重超載,電力供需矛盾緊張,給人民生活和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成很大影響。為改善這種狀況,有效緩解電力供需緊張的局面,在限制火電裝機(jī)容量增加的同時(shí),保證已有機(jī)組的穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行就顯得尤為重要,而電廠自身的各項(xiàng)技術(shù)改造工程的順利進(jìn)行就是重中之重。目前我國(guó)電力技改工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理尚處于初級(jí)階段,項(xiàng)目管理者往往大多是生產(chǎn)管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)比較豐富,而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理意識(shí)淡薄,管理能力較差,因此只有通過(guò)對(duì)電力技術(shù)改造工程項(xiàng)目中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行深入研究,采用系統(tǒng)的、動(dòng)態(tài)的方法對(duì)技改工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行全面管理,及早的識(shí)別主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并進(jìn)行評(píng)估,有針對(duì)性的采取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn),才能確保技改工程項(xiàng)目順利進(jìn)行,所以在現(xiàn)階段對(duì)電力技改工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行深入研究顯得極為迫切。 電力工程項(xiàng)目在實(shí)施過(guò)程中因受到諸多方面的不確定性因素的影響,使技改工程的實(shí)際目標(biāo)與預(yù)期目標(biāo)產(chǎn)生一定的差異,這種由不確定性引起的項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的差異稱為電力工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文首先介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的一般理論與電力技改工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn)以及進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的必要性,然后通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別找出電力技改工程項(xiàng)目中的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系,結(jié)合模糊層次綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型對(duì)電力技改工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),經(jīng)過(guò)計(jì)算得出此次除塵變系統(tǒng)改造工程的各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素等級(jí),針對(duì)具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目提出防范和應(yīng)對(duì)措施。本文的研究將會(huì)對(duì)電力行業(yè)技改工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理具有借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy in China, the supply of electricity as a social basic energy is increasing day by day. The power load is seriously overloaded and the contradiction between power supply and demand is tense, which has a great impact on people's life and economic development. In order to improve this situation and effectively alleviate the tense situation of power supply and demand, while limiting the increase of thermal power installed capacity, it is particularly important to ensure the stable operation of existing units. And the power plant own each technical transformation project smoothly carries on is the most important. At present, the project risk management of electric power technical transformation project in our country is still in the primary stage. Most of the project managers are rich in production management experience, but the awareness of risk management is weak, and the management ability is poor. Therefore, only through the in-depth study of the risk in the electric power technical transformation project and the comprehensive management of the risk of the technical transformation project by the systematic and dynamic method, the main risk factors can be identified and evaluated as early as possible. In order to ensure the smooth progress of the technical reform project, it is very urgent to study the risk management of the electric power technical transformation project at this stage. Because of the influence of many uncertain factors in the process of implementation of electric power engineering project, the actual target of the technical reform project is different from the expected target to a certain extent. The difference of project objectives caused by uncertainty is called power engineering project risk. This paper first introduces the general theory of risk management, the characteristics of the project risk and the necessity of risk management. Then the main risk factors in the electric power technical transformation project are identified by risk identification and the risk index system is constructed on the basis of which the fuzzy hierarchy process comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the risk of the electric power technical transformation project. The risk factor grades of the project are calculated, and the prevention and countermeasures are put forward for the specific risk items. The research in this paper will be helpful to the risk management of electric power industry technical transformation project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU71;TM73

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