發(fā)布時間：2018-02-23 03:25

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 新能源 新能源模型 能源技術(shù)經(jīng)濟評價 平準(zhǔn)化能源成本分析法 棄風(fēng)問題 能源政策 新能源定價模型　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：化石能源的大量利用帶來了資源枯竭和氣候變化兩大問題,嚴重威脅人類社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。尋求清潔、可持續(xù)的替代能源,成為能源工業(yè)的歷史挑戰(zhàn)。太陽能、風(fēng)能等新能源以其可再生、清潔無污染的特點逐漸受到人們的關(guān)注。在新能源的發(fā)展過程中能源價格是能源競爭的關(guān)鍵,只有當(dāng)新能源與可再生能源在價格上與傳統(tǒng)能源形成可比性,能源更替才能通過市場競爭逐漸完成。能源價格受到能源政策、技術(shù)進步等因素的影響,因此科學(xué)合理的能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略、技術(shù)研發(fā)戰(zhàn)略將對新能源革命起到巨大的推動作用。本文針對我國新能源發(fā)展過程中遇到的技術(shù)、價格、政策等問題進行分析,基于分析結(jié)果并借鑒國外的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗從政策角度為我國合理、高效發(fā)展新能源提出了一些建議。 本文的主要內(nèi)容如下： (1)分析了我國能源的分布結(jié)構(gòu)、分布特點和能源存儲方式,重點研究了以風(fēng)力發(fā)電、太陽能光伏發(fā)電為代表的新能源發(fā)電輸出特性方程,并仿真分析了其發(fā)電輸出特性。由于受到風(fēng)能資源和太陽光輻射資源隨機性和波動性的影響,風(fēng)力發(fā)電和光伏發(fā)電的輸出特性都具有隨機性和波動性。同時分析了風(fēng)力發(fā)電、光伏發(fā)電的不同接入模式對電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃、運行、保護、經(jīng)濟性等方面的影響。以某省光伏并網(wǎng)為例,計算分析了光伏全年的輸出特性及其并網(wǎng)后對該省電網(wǎng)峰谷差的影響。 (2)利用能源技術(shù)經(jīng)濟學(xué)評價方法—平準(zhǔn)化能源成本分析法(Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE),以火力發(fā)電、風(fēng)力發(fā)電和光伏發(fā)電為例,比較新能源發(fā)電與傳統(tǒng)能源發(fā)電項目的長期投資平均成本。研究表明,在只考慮環(huán)境外部效益而不考慮其他鼓勵性政策、補貼的前提下,風(fēng)力發(fā)電項目比火力發(fā)電項目具有明顯的優(yōu)勢,因此應(yīng)該改變對新能源成本過高的固有認識。在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過計算分析,討論了影響新能源發(fā)展的實際因素,提出了國家應(yīng)該逐步減少對新能源發(fā)電環(huán)節(jié)的補貼,加強對智能電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的支持和新能源設(shè)備制造業(yè)的支持,這樣更有利于我國新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。 (3)深入分析了我國產(chǎn)生棄風(fēng)現(xiàn)象的原因,指出棄風(fēng)問題本質(zhì)是電力系統(tǒng)對風(fēng)電的消納能力問題,解決棄風(fēng)問題需要包括風(fēng)力發(fā)電企業(yè)、輸配電企業(yè)以及用電客戶在內(nèi)的各個環(huán)節(jié)、各個利益相關(guān)方的共同努力。 對我國目前采用的棄風(fēng)供暖系統(tǒng)和風(fēng)儲聯(lián)合運行系統(tǒng)進行了綜合性分析,通過分析結(jié)果可以看出：系統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟效益受限于熱電比,只有當(dāng)熱電比介于1到2之間時系統(tǒng)才能盈利,當(dāng)熱電比大于2時系統(tǒng)將一直處于負盈利狀態(tài)。同時,折現(xiàn)率對系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟效益也有較大的影響,折現(xiàn)率越低,系統(tǒng)地經(jīng)濟效益越好。對于風(fēng)儲聯(lián)合運行系統(tǒng)進行了經(jīng)濟性分析,重點分析了不同儲能系統(tǒng)的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟性,飛輪儲能系統(tǒng)相對于超級電容儲能、超導(dǎo)磁儲能來說具有較好的經(jīng)濟性。 (4)針對我國新能源發(fā)展過程中出現(xiàn)的一系列問題,分析了我國現(xiàn)行的新能源政策、法律、法規(guī)。借鑒國外相關(guān)國家的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗,并結(jié)合我國自身條件,對我國現(xiàn)行的新能源政策提出了一些改進建議：從政府的角度出發(fā),政府應(yīng)當(dāng)在新能源的利用當(dāng)中起到帶頭作用,并為新能源的發(fā)展提供相關(guān)的政策保證,例如新能源電價、補貼、稅收等；從市場的角度出發(fā),應(yīng)該建立健全的新能源的消費市場；從資源的角度出發(fā),對新能源資源要進行準(zhǔn)確的評估。 (5)分析了現(xiàn)行能源價值模型,影子價格模型、邊際機會成本模型、收益現(xiàn)值模型、CGE模型等,提出了適合于新能源的包含環(huán)境因素和旋轉(zhuǎn)備用因素的新能源價值模型,過該模型可以為新能源發(fā)電上網(wǎng)電價的確定和國家對于新能源補貼政策的出臺提供理論依據(jù)。以風(fēng)電為例,用該模型進行了實例計算,在考慮環(huán)境價值和旋轉(zhuǎn)備用后,風(fēng)電場在現(xiàn)行上網(wǎng)電價下是具有一定的經(jīng)濟效益的。
[Abstract]:The extensive use of fossil fuels has brought two major problems of resource depletion and climate change, a serious threat to sustainable development of human society. Looking for clean, renewable and alternative energy, energy industry become historical challenges. Solar, wind and other new energy which is renewable, clean and pollution-free characteristics gradually attracted people's attention. In the process of development of new energy in energy prices is the key to energy competition, only when the new energy and renewable energy and traditional energy in the price formation of comparable energy to change through market competition gradually. The price of energy by the energy policy, the impact of technological progress and other factors, so the scientific and rational energy development strategy, technology development strategy will be to the enormous impetus to the new energy revolution. This paper meets the development process of China's new energy technology, price, policy issues such as analysis, base On the basis of the analysis of the results and the foreign development experience, some suggestions are made for the rational and efficient development of new energy in China from the policy point of view.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) analysis of the distribution structure of China's energy, energy distribution and storage methods was studied by wind power, new energy power output characteristic equation of solar photovoltaic power generation as the representative, and simulated its power output characteristics. Due to the impact of wind energy resources and solar radiation resources and random fluctuations. And the output characteristic of wind power and photovoltaic power generation with randomness and volatility. At the same time, the analysis of wind power, photovoltaic power generation with different access mode of power network planning, operation, protection, economy and other aspects. Taking a photovoltaic effect as an example, calculation and analysis of the output characteristics and the year of PV the power grid peak valley difference.
(2) the use of energy technology economics evaluation method - the levelized cost of energy analysis method (Levelized Cost of Energy, LCOE), with thermal power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation as an example, the average cost of long-term investment in new energy power generation and traditional energy generation projects. Research shows that, without considering other incentive policies only consider the external environment benefits, subsidies under the premise of wind power project has obvious advantages than the thermal power project, it should change the inherent understanding of the new energy of high cost. On this basis, through calculation and analysis, the factors influencing the development of new energy sources is discussed, proposed that the country should gradually reduce the new energy the power generation sector subsidies, strengthen the construction of smart grid support and new energy equipment manufacturing industry support, which is more conducive to the development of new energy industry in China.
(3) an in-depth analysis of the reasons of our country have abandoned wind phenomenon, pointed out that the essence of abandoned wind problem is consumptive ability problem of wind power in power system, solve the problems of abandoned wind need to include wind power enterprises, power transmission enterprises and electricity customers, all aspects of the joint efforts of all stakeholders.
The abandoned wind heating system and air reservoir joint operation system used in our country is analyzed, the results show that: the economical efficiency of the system is limited to power ratio, only when the power ratio between 1 to 2 when the system can be profitable, when the thermoelectric ratio is greater than 2. The system will have been negative profit. At the same time, the discount rate of the economic benefit of the system also has a greater impact, the lower the discount rate, the better economic benefit. The system for wind reservoir joint operation system of economic analysis, this paper analyzes the technology of economy of different energy storage system, the flywheel energy storage system with super capacitor, superconducting magnetic energy storage it has a good economy.
(4) a series of problems for the development process of China's new energy, analysis of China's current new energy policy, laws and regulations. Referring to the development experience of foreign countries, combined with China's own conditions, puts forward some improvement suggestions for China's current new energy policy: from the perspective of government point of view, the government should play a leading role in the use of new energy sources, to provide relevant policy and guarantee for the development of new energy sources, such as new energy price subsidies, tax, etc.; from the perspective of the market, should establish a sound new energy consumption market; from the perspective of resources, new energy resources accurate assessment.
(5) analysis of the current energy value model, the shadow price model, the marginal opportunity cost model, NPV model, CGE model, put forward the value of new energy model including environmental factors for new energy and reserve factors, the model can determine the price and provide for new energy subsidy policies the theoretical basis for the new energy generation. Wind power as an example, the calculation of the model, in consideration of the environmental value and the spinning reserve, the wind farm has certain economic benefits in the existing tariff.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM619

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本文編號：1526011