發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-28 10:42

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 停運(yùn)率 架空線路 可靠性 模糊規(guī)則 模糊推理 臺(tái)風(fēng) 冰災(zāi)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：架空線路作為連接不同地區(qū)電力設(shè)施的必要部分,是電網(wǎng)中最重要的電力元件。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)和城市化的不斷發(fā)展,電能傳輸需求的不斷增加,電網(wǎng)不斷延伸,系統(tǒng)的安全性和可靠性越來(lái)越得到人們的重視。架空線路跨越范圍廣,不但連接不同地區(qū)變電站、發(fā)電廠和負(fù)荷點(diǎn),還起著傳輸電能的作用。架空線路故障可能造成電網(wǎng)的大面積停電,嚴(yán)重影響生產(chǎn)、生活,甚至造成重大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。研究架空線路可靠性,提高架空線路安全穩(wěn)定性,有重大的實(shí)際意義。建立合理的架空線路停運(yùn)模型,得到精確的可靠性原始參數(shù),是架空線路可靠性研究的重要工作之一,也為整個(gè)電力系統(tǒng)的可靠性評(píng)估打下基礎(chǔ)。 近年來(lái)氣候異常,氣候?yàn)?zāi)害越來(lái)越頻繁。架空線路又架設(shè)在地面之上,常年暴露在外界環(huán)境中,是電力系統(tǒng)中受臺(tái)風(fēng)、冰凍災(zāi)害影響最大的設(shè)備。極端氣候雖持續(xù)時(shí)間不長(zhǎng),但其造成的影響卻極其惡劣,使停運(yùn)率急劇增加。若不考慮氣候?yàn)?zāi)害對(duì)架空線路停運(yùn)率的影響,會(huì)使評(píng)估結(jié)果遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)偏離實(shí)際,給電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃和調(diào)度人員帶來(lái)誤導(dǎo)。建立氣候?yàn)?zāi)害下架空線路的停運(yùn)模型,得到停運(yùn)率,有利于氣候?yàn)?zāi)害條件下的線路風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。 本文分析了臺(tái)風(fēng)和冰災(zāi)等自然災(zāi)害對(duì)架空線路停運(yùn)的影響,介紹了關(guān)于氣候?yàn)?zāi)害對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)影響的研究現(xiàn)狀,分析了幾種常用研究方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)；研究了偏最小二乘建模和模糊建模兩種基于小樣本的元件停運(yùn)率建模方法,分析了兩種方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)及適用范圍。分析了正常氣候下影響線路停運(yùn)的主要因素,并分別建立了基于線路老化和運(yùn)行工況的正常氣候條件下架空線路的停運(yùn)模型。分析了臺(tái)風(fēng)的特點(diǎn)和發(fā)生規(guī)律,研究了架空線路受臺(tái)風(fēng)影響的停運(yùn)因素,建立了以風(fēng)力載荷、地形系數(shù)和現(xiàn)在自身狀況系數(shù)為輸入的模糊推理模型,并通過(guò)實(shí)際算例驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性。分析了冰災(zāi)的特點(diǎn),研究了架空線路受冰災(zāi)影響的停運(yùn)因素,建立了以風(fēng)力載荷、海拔高度和除冰措施為輸入的停運(yùn)模型,并通過(guò)算例分析驗(yàn)證了模型的優(yōu)越性。
[Abstract]:Overhead line is the most important power element in the power network, as a necessary part to connect the power facilities in different areas. With the development of economy and urbanization, the demand for electric power transmission is increasing, and the power grid is extending. More and more attention has been paid to the safety and reliability of the system. Overhead lines span a wide range, not only connected to different regions of the substation, power plants and load points. The fault of overhead line may cause power outage in a large area of the power network, seriously affect production, life and even cause great economic losses. Study on reliability of overhead line. It is of great practical significance to improve the safety and stability of overhead lines. It is one of the important tasks to establish a reasonable outage model of overhead lines and obtain accurate original reliability parameters. It also lays the foundation for the reliability evaluation of the whole power system. In recent years, the climate is abnormal, climate disasters are more and more frequent, overhead lines are set up on the ground, exposed to the external environment all the year round, it is a typhoon in the power system. The equipment with the greatest impact of freezing disaster. Although the extreme climate does not last for a long time, but its impact is extremely bad, resulting in a sharp increase in the outage rate. If we do not consider the impact of climate disasters on the overhead line outage rate. The evaluation results will deviate from the actual situation and mislead the power system planning and dispatching personnel. The outage model of overhead lines under the climate disaster will be established and the outage rate will be obtained. It is beneficial to the route risk assessment under the condition of climate disaster. In this paper, the influence of natural disasters, such as typhoon and ice disaster, on overhead line outage is analyzed, and the research status of climate disaster on power system is introduced, and the advantages and disadvantages of several common research methods are analyzed. Two modeling methods of component outage rate based on small sample, partial least squares modeling and fuzzy modeling, are studied, the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods and their application range are analyzed, and the main factors affecting line outage in normal climate are analyzed. The outage models of overhead lines under normal climatic conditions are established based on the aging and operating conditions of the lines respectively. The characteristics and occurrence rules of typhoons are analyzed and the factors affecting the outage of overhead lines are studied. The fuzzy inference model with wind load, terrain coefficient and present condition coefficient as input is established, and the validity of the model is verified by practical examples. The characteristics of ice disaster are analyzed. The outage factors of overhead lines affected by ice disaster are studied, and the outage model with wind load, altitude and deicing measures as input is established, and the superiority of the model is verified by an example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM752

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