發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-02 11:13

  本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)股股價(jià)　切入點(diǎn)：凈資產(chǎn)收益率　出處：《新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：文章在國(guó)內(nèi)外研究動(dòng)態(tài)述評(píng)基礎(chǔ)上,以農(nóng)業(yè)類上市公司股票價(jià)格為研究對(duì)象,設(shè)計(jì)了研究思路和研究方案,梳理了股票定價(jià)理論基礎(chǔ),分析了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)類上市公司的現(xiàn)狀以及影響股價(jià)變動(dòng)的關(guān)鍵財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)。通過對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)類上市公司股價(jià)與具體微觀變量關(guān)聯(lián)性的分析,力圖發(fā)現(xiàn)影響農(nóng)業(yè)類上市公司股票價(jià)格的核心財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)因素,為降低農(nóng)業(yè)類上市公司的行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及政府決策提供參考。 文章采取現(xiàn)代計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法與數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法開展了研究,著力于實(shí)證角度。選取A01農(nóng)業(yè)板塊上市公司為研究對(duì)象,樣本區(qū)間為2007第一季度至2013年第四季度,有364組觀測(cè)樣本數(shù)據(jù),建立計(jì)量回歸模型定量分析農(nóng)業(yè)股股價(jià)變動(dòng)在財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)上的表現(xiàn)。通過描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)發(fā)現(xiàn)盈余價(jià)格比與凈資產(chǎn)收益率同向變化趨勢(shì)明顯,進(jìn)而建立一個(gè)凈資產(chǎn)收益率作為解釋變量,盈余價(jià)格比(市盈率的倒數(shù))為被解釋變量的面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)類股票股價(jià)波動(dòng)規(guī)律進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證研究。研究結(jié)果表明：盈余價(jià)格比與凈資產(chǎn)收益率呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。根據(jù)盈余價(jià)格比定義以及上述實(shí)證結(jié)果,得到結(jié)論：每股凈資產(chǎn)、凈資產(chǎn)收益率與股價(jià)變動(dòng)有顯著關(guān)系。然后以農(nóng)業(yè)板塊股票市場(chǎng)為研究對(duì)象,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度法找出與股票價(jià)格相關(guān)聯(lián)的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),并分別建立了對(duì)數(shù)線性模型與截面數(shù)據(jù)回歸模型檢驗(yàn)了每股收益、凈資產(chǎn)收益率與股價(jià)的關(guān)聯(lián)性,以及每股凈資產(chǎn)對(duì)股票價(jià)格的基礎(chǔ)作用。最后以2013年的最新數(shù)據(jù)再次對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司股票投資價(jià)值規(guī)律進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。 文章得到的主要結(jié)論如下： (1)在A股市農(nóng)業(yè)板市場(chǎng),農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的盈余價(jià)格比與凈資產(chǎn)收益率具有明顯的關(guān)聯(lián)性,并且經(jīng)過推導(dǎo)得出,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司股價(jià)和業(yè)績(jī)指標(biāo)以及每股凈資產(chǎn)相關(guān)聯(lián)。 (2)股票價(jià)格與業(yè)績(jī)關(guān)聯(lián)性顯著,公司財(cái)務(wù)因素特別是每股收益,對(duì)于股價(jià)有著極強(qiáng)的解釋能力。 (3)經(jīng)過建立計(jì)量回歸模型檢驗(yàn),證實(shí)每股凈資產(chǎn)是股票價(jià)格的價(jià)值基礎(chǔ),是影響股票價(jià)格的內(nèi)在因素。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the review of domestic and foreign research trends, taking the stock price of agricultural listed companies as the research object, this paper designs the research ideas and research schemes, and combs the theoretical basis of stock pricing. This paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural listed companies in China and the key financial indicators that affect the stock price changes. Through the analysis of the relationship between the stock price of agricultural listed companies and the specific micro variables, This paper tries to find out the key financial index factors that affect the stock price of agricultural listed companies, and provides a reference for reducing the industry risk and government decision of agricultural listed companies. This paper adopts the modern econometric method and mathematical statistics method to carry out the research, focusing on the empirical point of view. The A01 agricultural plate listed company is selected as the research object. The sample interval is from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2013. With 364 sets of observed sample data, a quantitative regression model was established to quantitatively analyze the performance of agricultural stock price changes on financial indicators. Through descriptive statistics, it was found that the trend of the change of earnings price ratio and net asset return was obvious. Then we establish a panel data model with ROE as the explanatory variable and the ratio of earnings to price (the reciprocal of P / E ratio) as the explained variable. Based on the definition of earnings price ratio and the above empirical results, the results show that the earnings price ratio is positively correlated with the return on net assets. There is a significant relationship between the return on net assets and the change of stock price. Then taking the stock market of agricultural plate as the research object, we find out the financial index related to the stock price by using the grey correlation degree method. The logarithmic linear model and cross-section data regression model are established to test the correlation between earnings per share, return on net assets and stock price. And the basic effect of net assets per share on the stock price. Finally, with the latest data of 2013, the paper verifies the law of stock investment value of agricultural listed companies again. The main conclusions are as follows:. 1) in the agricultural market of A share market, the earnings price ratio of agricultural listed companies has obvious correlation with the return on net assets, and it is deduced that the share price, performance index and net assets per share of agricultural listed companies are related. The relationship between stock price and performance is significant, and corporate financial factors, especially earnings per share, have a strong explanatory power for stock price. 3) it is proved that the net assets per share is the value basis of the stock price and the internal factor that affects the stock price after the establishment of the econometric regression model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F302.6

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