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  本文選題：對外貿(mào)易成本　切入點(diǎn)：測算　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放至今三十多年，中國創(chuàng)造了舉世矚目的經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡，毋庸置疑的是對外貿(mào)易做出了巨大貢獻(xiàn)。當(dāng)各國經(jīng)濟(jì)遭遇2008年全球金融危機(jī)侵?jǐn)_、市場需求衰退時(shí)，中國貿(mào)易額未能保持穩(wěn)步增長，2009年中國貿(mào)易總額下挫。雖然2010年貿(mào)易總額恢復(fù)增長，，但是全球金融危機(jī)的陰霾仍未散去以及未來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在的不確定性，中國需要繼續(xù)探索未來對外貿(mào)易增長的動力。在呼吁轉(zhuǎn)變貿(mào)易發(fā)展方式的同時(shí)，本文選擇了降低對外貿(mào)易成本這一視角。 本文首先梳理了對外貿(mào)易成本的概念、構(gòu)成以及國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對其測算方法的研究。直接法測算對外貿(mào)易成本由于數(shù)據(jù)可獲得性難度高，且不準(zhǔn)確。因此國內(nèi)外學(xué)者均采用間接法測算。文中推導(dǎo)了目前最新的對外貿(mào)易成本的測算模型——基于一般均衡理論推導(dǎo)的加入了多邊貿(mào)易成本的改進(jìn)的引力模型。接著運(yùn)用中國1993-2010年與15個(gè)主要貿(mào)易伙伴的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)測算了中國對外貿(mào)易成本。之后定性分析了影響對外貿(mào)易成本的五類因素，分別是地理因素、經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模因素、歷史因素、制度因素和基礎(chǔ)因素。接著根據(jù)中國對外貿(mào)易實(shí)際情況，選擇距離、是否擁有共同邊界、兩國（地區(qū)）關(guān)稅水平、人均GDP差額的絕對值、是否使用共同語言、是否加入WTO、是否簽訂自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定、兩國（地區(qū)）互聯(lián)網(wǎng)人數(shù)八個(gè)變量對中國對外貿(mào)易成本進(jìn)行多元回歸分析。 在測算對外貿(mào)易成本部分得出的結(jié)論是：1993-2010年間中國對外貿(mào)易成本呈下降趨勢。又將貿(mào)易伙伴以距離、收入、區(qū)域不同劃分，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國與距離越遠(yuǎn)、收入越低的國家（地區(qū)）間的貿(mào)易成本越大；中國與東亞地區(qū)的對外貿(mào)易成本最低，其次是歐美國家，最后是金磚國家。在影響對外貿(mào)易成本的因素分析中，除了兩國關(guān)稅水平變量外，其他七個(gè)變量對中國對外貿(mào)易成本的影響都是顯著的，分別是距離越近、擁有共同邊界、人均GDP差額的絕對值越大、使用共同語言、加入WTO、簽訂了自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定、兩國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)普及率越高，貿(mào)易成本越小。最后根據(jù)實(shí)證分析的結(jié)論給中國對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展提出了適當(dāng)建議。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China has created a remarkable economic miracle, and there is no doubt that foreign trade has made a great contribution. When the economies of various countries suffered from the global financial crisis in 2008 and the market demand declined, China's trade volume has failed to maintain steady growth, with its total trade volume falling in 2009. Although trade volume returned to growth in 2010, the haze of the global financial crisis has not dissipated and uncertainty about the future of the global economy exists. China needs to continue to explore the motive force of foreign trade growth in the future. While calling for changing the mode of trade development, this paper chooses the angle of view of reducing the cost of foreign trade. This article first combs the concept, the constitution and the domestic and foreign scholars' research on the foreign trade cost. The direct method is difficult to calculate the foreign trade cost because of the difficulty of data availability. Therefore, scholars both at home and abroad use indirect method to calculate the cost of foreign trade. This paper deduces the latest calculation model of foreign trade cost, which is based on the general equilibrium theory and adds the improved gravitational model of multilateral trade cost. Then using China's trade data from 1993 to 2010 with 15 major trading partners to calculate the cost of China's foreign trade, and then qualitatively analyzing the five kinds of factors that affect the cost of foreign trade. They are geographical factors, economic scale factors, historical factors, institutional factors and basic factors. Then according to the actual situation of China's foreign trade, choose distance, whether there is a common border, the level of tariffs between the two countries (regions), The absolute value of per capita GDP difference, whether to use common language, whether to join WTO, whether to sign a free trade agreement, and eight variables of Internet population in the two countries (regions) are used to analyze the foreign trade cost of China. In the part of calculating the cost of foreign trade, the conclusion is that the cost of China's foreign trade shows a downward trend between 1993 and 2010. Again, by dividing the trading partners according to distance, income, and different regions, we find that the farther the distance between China and China, The lower the income, the greater the cost of trade between the countries (regions). The foreign trade cost between China and East Asia is the lowest, followed by the European and American countries, and finally the BRICS countries. In the analysis of the factors affecting the cost of foreign trade, In addition to the tariff level variables of the two countries, the other seven variables have a significant impact on China's foreign trade costs. The closer they are, the closer they share the common border, the greater the absolute value of the per capita GDP difference, and the use of the common language. After joining WTO, free trade agreement was signed. The higher the popularization rate of Internet, the lower the trade cost. Finally, according to the conclusion of empirical analysis, some suggestions are put forward for the development of China's foreign trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752;F740.45

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