本文關(guān)鍵詞： 網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件 網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情 擴(kuò)散規(guī)律 擴(kuò)散模型 遺傳算法　出處：《山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著大數(shù)據(jù)、4G高速網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)代到來(lái)，實(shí)時(shí)交互、成本低廉的網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件對(duì)社會(huì)生活、政策法規(guī)、人民心態(tài)影響逐漸加深。事件監(jiān)控、輿論引導(dǎo)等問(wèn)題引起廣泛重視。本文針對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件發(fā)生的早期特征對(duì)其進(jìn)行實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)評(píng)價(jià)，對(duì)其未來(lái)發(fā)展進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，以期預(yù)警和引導(dǎo)輿論的良性發(fā)展。 本文跟蹤收集大量網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件并記錄早期特征和最終影響范圍，全程評(píng)估及評(píng)價(jià)內(nèi)容，歸納總結(jié)了網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件擴(kuò)散的時(shí)間規(guī)律、熱度規(guī)律和生物時(shí)鐘規(guī)律、不同網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件信息篩選規(guī)律和同一網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件信息篩選規(guī)律。 本文通過(guò)實(shí)時(shí)網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件歸類(lèi)、擴(kuò)散性和傾向性檢測(cè)，建立網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件數(shù)據(jù)間的邏輯關(guān)系，，依據(jù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件擴(kuò)散規(guī)律建立了網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件擴(kuò)散模型。評(píng)價(jià)網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件的影響力、實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件的發(fā)展規(guī)模和方向，預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)警級(jí)別，確定輿論引導(dǎo)的方向和措施，在網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件的發(fā)生初期進(jìn)行引導(dǎo)，使其發(fā)展趨勢(shì)及影響力在可控制范圍內(nèi)。 本文基于遺傳算法設(shè)計(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件預(yù)測(cè)模型，在大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下建立評(píng)價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)原型系統(tǒng)。對(duì)不同網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件在同一時(shí)間發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，得到良好的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果，證明其使用價(jià)值與推廣價(jià)值 本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)為： 1、發(fā)現(xiàn)黃金24小時(shí)為網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件早期和快速上升期的分界點(diǎn)規(guī)律；提出在黃金24小時(shí)實(shí)時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)評(píng)價(jià)、實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)引導(dǎo)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情監(jiān)控方法，從事件發(fā)展為熱點(diǎn)后的堵截轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樵缙诎l(fā)現(xiàn)預(yù)測(cè)和良性引導(dǎo)。 2、基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件內(nèi)容監(jiān)測(cè)和評(píng)論傾向性預(yù)測(cè)，建立自學(xué)習(xí)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件擴(kuò)散模型；利用遺傳算法設(shè)計(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)事件預(yù)測(cè)算法和原型系統(tǒng)，具有計(jì)算簡(jiǎn)單、處理時(shí)間快、自適應(yīng)及規(guī)模、范圍和態(tài)度控制的全面性等特點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of big data 4G high-speed network era, real-time interaction, low-cost network events to social life, policies and regulations, people's mentality gradually deepened. Based on the early characteristics of network events, this paper carries out real-time monitoring and evaluation, and forecasts its future development in order to forewarn and guide the benign development of public opinion. This paper tracks and collects a large number of network events and records the early characteristics and final impact range, evaluates and evaluates the whole process, and summarizes the time law, heat law and biological clock law of network event diffusion. Different network event information screening rules and the same network event information screening rules. In this paper, the logical relationship between network event data is established by real-time network event classification, diffusion and tendency detection. According to the law of network event diffusion, the model of network event diffusion is established, the influence of network event is evaluated, the scale and direction of development of network event are monitored in real time, the warning level is predicted, and the direction and measures of public opinion guidance are determined. In the early stage of network events, the trend and influence of network events can be controlled. In this paper, a network event prediction model is designed based on genetic algorithm, and a prototype system of evaluation and prediction is established in big data environment. Different network events are predicted at the same time, and good experimental results are obtained. Prove its use value and popularize value The main innovations of this paper are: 1. It is found that gold is the dividing point between the early period of network event and the period of rapid rising in 24 hours. In this paper, a network public opinion monitoring method based on 24-hour real-time discovery evaluation and real-time prediction and guidance is proposed, which changes the interception from events to hot spots into early discovery, prediction and good guidance. 2. Based on the monitoring of network event content and the prediction of comment tendency, a self-learning model of network event diffusion is established. The genetic algorithm is used to design the network event prediction algorithm and the prototype system, which has the characteristics of simple calculation, fast processing time, adaptive and comprehensive control of scale, scope and attitude, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TP18;TP393.06

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