本文選題：農(nóng)村公路 + 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)��； 參考：《公路》2014年07期

【摘要】：農(nóng)村公路急彎、陡坡、路側(cè)險(xiǎn)要等典型路段往往是事故易發(fā)多發(fā)路段。在現(xiàn)階段農(nóng)村公路安保工程資金有限的情況下,需對(duì)既有典型路段的事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定量評(píng)價(jià)和排序,為隱患路段的排查和安保工程分期實(shí)施提供依據(jù)。在現(xiàn)有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了典型路段事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,提出了一種基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的農(nóng)村公路典型路段事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法。該方法能有效集結(jié)專家知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn),定量評(píng)價(jià)典型路段(包括單一路段和組合路段)的事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并可以隨著數(shù)據(jù)的更新不斷完善模型。在農(nóng)村公路事故資料相對(duì)缺乏的情況下,該方法具有較強(qiáng)的實(shí)用性。
[Abstract]:The typical road sections, such as sharp bends, steep slopes and side risks, are prone to accidents.Under the condition of limited fund of rural highway security project, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate and rank the accident risk of the existing typical road sections, which can provide the basis for the investigation of hidden danger sections and the phased implementation of security projects.Based on the existing research results, a typical road accident risk evaluation index system is constructed, and a Bayesian network based evaluation method of typical road road accident risk is proposed.This method can effectively gather the knowledge and experience of experts, quantitatively evaluate the accident risk of typical road sections (including single and combined sections), and improve the model with the updating of data.In the case of the lack of rural road accident data, this method has strong practicability.
【作者單位】： 東南大學(xué)交通學(xué)院;淮陰工學(xué)院;
【基金】：交通部西部交通建設(shè)科技項(xiàng)目,項(xiàng)目編號(hào)20113182231230 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目,項(xiàng)目編號(hào)51278102
【分類號(hào)】：U491.3

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本文編號(hào)：1751745